It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
GB v. LAR = (LAR wins 61% of the simulations) I know the Rams closed the 2023 season strong, but most all of their wins were against non-playoff teams and a meaningless Week 18 win vs. backups (on both sides) starting San Fran...then they got beat clean by the Lions in the playoffs.
Green Bay showed strength in the postseason with 1.75 impressive performances...collapsing in the 4th-quarter vs. SF in their late game loss/exit from the playoffs.
All that said... The Rams have the advantage at QB and on offense throughout. Defense...the edge definitely goes to the Rams with their new secondary makeover. The win for the better overall roster here has to go to the Rams.
AndrewDFS
GB v. LAR = (LAR wins by 2.5)
The Packers made a late playoff push last year and performed admirably in both games. However, I see them as a fringe wildcard team for the upcoming season; the team may have slightly overperformed towards the end. In contrast, the Rams are genuine Super Bowl contenders. While losing Aaron Donald is significant, their improved offensive line and secondary will pose a challenge to the 49ers for the NFC West title and potentially secure the top seed in the conference.
Ross Jacobs
GB v. LAR = (GB wins 27-24) I imagine I'll probably be in the minority on this one. I do like both teams and think they have a reasonable shot at the Super Bowl. My initial instinct is for the Rams but besides losing Aaron Donald (who I don't think people understand how much this loss affects their defense), I like the Packers better at nearly every position. The QBs are about even but Love is younger and doesn't have Stafford's injury issues. The Packers have the better RB, TE, DL, and CB rooms.
The Rams probably have the slightly better OL right now, but I expect major additions from the Packers in the draft. The position that clearly stands out as better for the Rams is at WR but if Kupp goes down with injury then what? I'll side with youth and depth in this one. Packers come out on top by a nose.
RC
GB v. LAR = (LAR wins 27-22) I’m not fully onboard with Jordan Love or the Packers like everyone else. Again, I will say... We almost didn’t see the Packers in the playoffs – they won three in-a-row late, but almost lost two of those games – beating Bryce Young (should’ve lost), an odd Jaren Hall start then Nick Mullens relief, and eliminated Justin Fields (snuck by). If they lost any of those games, GB isn’t in the playoffs and there’s no Dallas or San Fran postseason moments to get everyone excited ahead.
On the other hand, the Rams won seven of their last 8 games and lost to the Lions by a point in the playoffs...one of the best teams in the NFL down the stretch.
In the 2024 offseason, the Packers have done little to change their team one way or the other...while the Rams have been on the attack, signing real talent to fix their main weakness – their secondary.
To me, the Rams have the superior roster top-to-bottom...and if you give the edge in the upcoming NFL Draft to the Rams front office over the Packers’, then the gap should be even wider in a few weeks.
Bet The Close Chris
GB v. LAR = (LAR wins 28-20) Easy one for me. I think Green Bay will be fine this year but there is so much optimism because the core of the team is young that I feel they are a bit overrated at a season win total of 10.5. The Rams are one of my favorite pre-season teams and a team I think can challenge for the NFC title. I think Rams season win total at 8.5 is too low. I recognize the loss of A.Donald but still…
The Rams get by the Packers 4-1 in the voting, and move on to the Final Four.
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