It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
Ross Jacobs
CLE vs LAC = (LAC wins 23-10) What Cleveland has done the last couple of years has been quite impressive in the big picture, but I struggle to see them maintain it. Watson has been an unmitigated disaster as predicted, and I see no reason why he's suddenly going to flip a switch when he's already guaranteed all his money. There are some positive statistical trends for them from 2023, but it's far less impressive when you consider that most of their wins were against garbage teams and the few good wins were when the opponent was struggling with key injuries.
I don't think Harbaugh is suddenly going to turn the Chargers into a Super Bowl threat the way he did the 49ers, but they will definitely be improved. Heads up...I'll take the defensive guru and the elite QB to beat the massively overpaid massage enthusiast.
RC
CLE v. LAC = (CLE wins 21-20)
I think the Chargers are using 2024 as a transition year...not all-in to win, more so they will be drafting what they hope is the foundation this year and gutting themselves of old-regime players. It will be a good LAC team, but not a great one.
The Browns have such an advantage on the O-Line and a defense that is top-to-bottom better than the Chargers’ defense. Even though Herbert v. Watson is no match, the Browns are better overall everywhere else right now...but not in a year from now.
Bet The Close Chris
CLE v. LAC = (LAC win 17-13) I like the CLE roster, I’m just not picking D.Watson to win 2 games in this tournament. LAC rides the easy draw to the sweet 16 but there are so many questions that I can’t imagine the road doesn’t end next game.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
CLE v. LAC = (CLE wins 53% of the simulations) The Browns were (6-3) with Deshaun starting last season...and had a shot at (7-2) or (8-1) in that stretch...then they went (7-3) without Watson. You can’t deny this is a good Browns team. For as mediocre as Watson is...the Browns show what having a killer O-Line and OK enough defense can do for you.
The Chargers have not gotten any better, in personnel, this offseason. Maybe they will in the draft...or maybe they won’t. Too many question marks to try to fill in to get LAC past CLE in 2024.
AndrewDFS
CLE v. LAC = (LAC wins by 0.5) Very close call between these two teams. The Browns are more well-rounded than the Chargers; however, their poor QB play will cost them. The Deshaun Watson trade may be just as bad as the Russel Wilson deal. To make matters worse, the Browns hired OC Ken Dorsey who was fired by Buffalo in the middle of last season.
New Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh should help QB Justin Herbert take another step despite losing all their main offensive play makers this offseason. I expect the Chargers to grab a couple of WR from this deep rookie class and bolster their offensive line in the upcoming draft.
The Chargers slip by the Browns 3-2, and move on to the Elite 8.
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