It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
Bet The Close Chris
SF v. HOU = (HOU wins 24-23) The student has become the teacher. I don’t know Shanahan’s record vs his old coaches but it’s about to get one game worse. HOU has all of the attributes of a team I want to fade since they very easily could have missed the playoffs, but when we look back – the one factor that keeps a team above .500 and hitting double digit wins, it is a superstar QB. They added a lot, unfortunately they added S.Diggs which means an AFC Championship loss. SF has some new faces on the DL, may lose Aiyuk, muscle memory says take SF but in 2024 the Texans are my pick.
Ross Jacobs
SF vs HOU = (SF wins 27-24) Yet another pair of overrated teams. The 49ers are on their last legs as a top Super Bowl contending team. It's 2024 or bust because once they are forced to pay Brock Purdy they won't be able to afford an all-star team around him, and as much as I respect the guy, he's just not good enough to do it without a lot of help. They should be fine for one more year though, and in this matchup I think the Texans are even more overrated because of a somewhat fluky end to the 2023 season. Are they improving? Yes. But let's not pretend they were anything more than an up and down 10-7 team in a weak division that lucked into playing a 127 year old Joe Flacco led Browns in the playoffs. They got destroyed in the next round by an actually good team. They should win this division handily and be a team nobody wants to play in the playoffs, but I don't think they are ready to be called favorites just yet.
RC
SF v. HOU = (HOU wins 28-24) I wrestled with this way too much. When I’m spinning/wavering on picking a game between two teams, I just default to taking the team with the better QB...as that usually leads you to the right answer more times than not in NFL games. So, I am going with Houston here.
As much as I love Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud is arguably the best QB in the NFL right now and he may have an all-star team to throw to among his WR group with another offseason of growth and with the same O-C/consistency. The 49ers feel like they are getting ready to fade from the top of the NFC...conference and the West division.
Andrew DFS
SF v. HOU = (SF wins by 2) DeMeco Ryans revenge game! The 49ers most important move this offseason was getting rid of DC Steve Wilks. After SS Talanoa Hufanga went down their defense collapsed, and Wilks got exposed.
The Texans are up and coming and made a bunch of moves to improve their squad this offseason. I don’t think their team is quite at the 49ers level yet but aren’t too far off. SF’s window with Brock Purdy’s rookie contract is starting to close as Purdy is heading into the third year of his deal. The 49ers will have some decisions to make with their key personnel as they start to prepare to pay Purdy real quarterback money.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
SF v. HOU = (HOU wins 54% of the simulations) Serious question: Could any 49ers WR start, in a 3-WR set, for the Texans? Think about it. The fact that you have to think about it is telling in its own right.
I am looking at these two teams and giving the Texans the offensive edge...but also the defensive edge now too. Looking at Houston’s defensive maneuvers in the offseason...headline signings were very good, but they also signed a tremendous amount of talented depth as well...like ‘if RC were the GM’ super cheap, super smart signings.
All the momentum and QB play are with the Texans not the 49ers in the Year of Our Lord 2024.
The Texans with a mild surprise...a 3-2 ‘upset’ of the 49ers. Houston moves on to the Elite 8. Kyle Shanahan can’t win the title in anything!
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