It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
Ross Jacobs
NYJ vs BAL = (NYJ wins 20-17) Again two teams I don't love, but I think this one is far closer than our panel is going to show. For that reason, I'm going to put the Jets just to make a point. The Ravens are overrated. Yes, they are a solid 11–12-win team and probably better than the Jets this year, but I don't think the gap is that great.
Lamar is at his best when he can play with a lead, and he often gets that because the defense is so great. Like I said during the 2023 playoffs, if he gets down by a couple scores he seriously struggles to come back because he is just not a dynamic passer, and you have to be a great passer when the defense knows you have to throw. But the Jets have a great defense as well and might be the best defense in 2024. Combine that with an aging Rodgers doing just enough and I could see this team winning 10+ games.
RC
NYJ v. BAL = (BAL wins 17-13) Bad matchup for the Jets. The Jets D is sweet, but susceptible on the ground...and that’s where the Ravens are ‘boss’. The Jets at full strength can give the Ravens fits but give the edge to the better head coach and the Justin Tucker factor.
AndrewDFS
NYJ v. BAL = (BAL wins by 2.5) Baltimore is my number one team in the AFC heading into next year. The addition of RB Derrick Henry will take their already potent offense to another level. The Jets will be improved relative to last year but even if their offensive line stays healthy and have a good draft, beating Baltimore is a tall task. As long as QB Lamar Jackson stays healthy, I think the AFC will be Baltimore’s to lose.
Bet The Close Chris
NYJ v. BAL = (NYJ wins 27-20) A lot of things broke right for BAL to win so many games last year. The D.Henry boost will be real but the Ravens quietly have to replace a lot this offseason including three offensive linemen. I’m projecting the best, healthiest version of the Jets here, I think this is the season they rise up and win double digit games before entering another few decades of futility.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
NYJ v. BAL = (BAL wins 55% of the simulations) The offensive advantage of the Ravens is too much for the Jets, who have a defensive advantage overall...but are a bit weak in stopping the run game. The Ravens are just too sound for the hopeful-in-2024 Jets. It’s not as much of a slam dunk as expected...the Ravens slip by with the better special teams.
But in a real game, like in the playoffs this season...I could see the jets smacking the Ravens and causing another disappointing playoff end for Lamar.
The Jets lose a close one to the Ravens, a 3-2 vote win for Baltimore...who know heads to the Elite 8.
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