It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
RC
MIA v. PIT = (MIA wins 21-20) I’ll bet this will be close in the overall voting. I’m leaning Miami, but I almost went with the Steelers because Pitt is a bad matchup for Miami – a slow it down offense with a physical defense can really throw Miami for a loop. But Miami has such speed, and the Steelers don’t. Any given Sunday...either team could win this matchup, as I see it today. But I’ll give the slightest lean to the Dolphins when Tom Brady goes to play for them and leads them to victory.
Ross Jacobs
MIA vs PIT = (PIT wins 21-20) I don't love either of these teams to be honest. Miami is overrated because their offense routinely hangs up 35+ points on bad defenses, but the Steelers do not have a bad defense. As long as TJ Watt is healthy, I think they keep the Dolphins in check just enough to grind out a close win.
AndrewDFS
MIA v. PIT = (MIA wins by 2.5) I could easily flip this prediction if the Dolphins face the Steelers in the elements. Likewise, the Dolphins could run up the score if this game is played early in the season. I’ll settle on a margin of victory of slightly less than a field goal.
Although the Steelers’ traditional run-first identity matches up with OC Arthur Smith’s offensive philosophy and QB Russell Wilson’s conservative style of play, their offense won’t be able to keep up with a high-octane offense like Miami’s. Pittsburgh won’t be a serious Super Bowl contender this season. Miami’s only path to a Super Bowl is if they secure homefield advantage throughout the playoffs; I have no faith in their squad to pull off a road victory against the AFC juggernauts.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
MIA v. PIT = (PIT wins 50.1% of the simulations) The Steelers physicality rules the day here. The Dolphins were (1-5) vs. playoff teams last season...should’ve been (0-6)...then they lost their first playoff game on top of that – the Miami Dolphins are a fraud until further notice. The Steelers are not great either, but this style clash favors Pitt ever so slightly.
Did you know the Steelers went (5-3) against playoffs teams last year (and then lost to Buffalo in the playoffs)? Why does RC hate the Steelers so?
Bet The Close Chris
MIA v. PIT = (Nobody wins 6-6). Gross, I thought “somebody has to win” but that’s really not the case in regular season game. I was so excited for MIA last year, but this offense never evolved from romping bad defenses and getting stood up against good ones. New MIA DC Anthony Weaver is said to be a players coach, I guess that is better than Fangio who the players rebelled against. There is some leftover talent on MIA D, but Wilkins gone is obviously huge. PIT D should be their regular good selves but both R.Wilson and J.Fields are bad enough to keep PIT from scoring.
Well, it’s a first for the tournament...a 2-2-1 tie in the voting. Hmmm. We’ll use the scoring/spread from the experts to determine the winner, in which case the Dolphins eke out the win and advance to the Elite 8...somehow.
LAR, KC, MIA have all advanced so far.
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