It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
Bet The Close Chris
NO v. ARI = (ARI 30-10). The Saints offseason in a word…”yuck”. Cap issues have left the cupboard pretty bare on the lines on both sides of the ball, C. Young and W. Gay are fine but don’t impress me much. If they have a decent draft every player they pick will make this team.
The Cardinals give me the opposite feelings, with a fully healthy K. Murray, a dynamite up and coming coach and the 4th pick in the draft things are looking up in the desert. Win totals are out - the Saints are 7.5, Cardinals are 6.5…based on difficulty of division that makes these teams priced about even. I think they are ships passing in the night.
RC
NO v. ARI = (ARI wins 23-17) The Saints are on the verge of a major collapse...their defense is aging out and Derek Carr is a bottom tier QB behind a dying O-Line, all led by a bottom 5 head coach. Meanwhile, Arizona is on the rise under Jon Gannon and Kyler is back healthy. The Cardinals, one of my favorite underrated teams of 2023, advance over the fading Saints.
Andrew DFS
NO v. ARI = (Cardinals by 1) The Saints are grappling with the consequences of poor cap management during the end of the Drew Brees era. Last offseason, they committed a hefty contract to subpar QB Derek Carr, yet have been losing key players subsequently over the past few years.
Conversely, the Arizona Cardinals are on an upward trajectory with franchise QB Kyler Murray returning to full health. Although the Cardinals won only 4 games last season, they were competitive in more games than expected which is a sign of good coaching. After losing WR Hollywood Brown to the Chiefs, they’re poised to select a top WR in the upcoming draft. GM Monti Ossenfort's willingness to trade the 4th overall pick reflects a shrewd strategy, particularly given the depth of talent in the WR class. A potential trade with the Vikings could yield the Cardinals three first round selections. We’ll see where the chips fall next month. The immediate matchup between these two teams may be close, but their long-term trajectories diverge significantly.
Ross Jacobs
NO v. ARI = (ARI wins 23-17) Kyler Murray has matured and reached his full adult height. He's playing some solid football and has the Cardinals on the rise. Despite this the Saints have the lead late in this game... After trailing most of the game, they dial up a post to Rashid Shaheed and he takes it 76 yards for the go-ahead score. Shaheed's fantasy line for the day is 1 catch for 76 yards and a TD.
On the final play of the game Kyler drops back to heave a Hail Mary for the win. Chase Young rushes up the field trying to sack him, but Kyler steps up and rolls to his right. Young turns to chase him but gives up after two steps. Murray launches the ball into the endzone, and the ball bounces off the hands of Tyrann Mathieu straight into the waiting arms of Greg Dortch who was inexplicably on the field for some reason. He is benched the following week for his ‘mistake’.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
NO v. ARI = (NO wins 53% of the simulations)
You humans have a lot of faith in an Arizona team that went a mediocre (3-5) with Kyler back at QB last season, with wins over bad teams within that. They have a defense that can only be described as: Budda Baker and 10 other guys no one could name with an offense weapons group that is currently led by James Conner at RB and ‘coveted’ free agent signee WR Chris Moore?
Arizona dumped Rondale Moore and signed Chris Moore, on purpose, what Moore do you need to know about Arizona?
Needing to win ONE game, generically, would you rather have Derek Carr or Kyler Murray at QB for that game? You paused, which means...it’s not a clear edge either way. Outside of QB, the Saints have the better RB and WR group and better secondary (by far). Better pass rush, better linebacker play. Arizona has an edge at O-Line here, which is important but not by enough to overcome everything else.
It's close between these two teams, but the Saints won four of their last 5 games last season...went (6-4) down the stretch...five of their 2023 season losses were to playoff teams. Close losses to end-of-season HOT teams Detroit and the Rams did them in to miss the playoffs.
The nod should go to the Saints, as much as Dennis Allen is silly as an NFL head coach...
For more content from Fantasy Football Metrics: www.ffmetrics.com
Subscribe to FFM: FFM Subscription Information
