We're looking at free agency ahead of the official FA start period (March 13th, kinda officially…but things are happening all week+ prior), going position by position to discuss some of the big names, tour top ranked guys, as well as the sleepers and frauds of the group…and we'll make some throwaway/dart throw predictions on landing spots.
Today's position group: Safeties
The consensus top three SAFs available…
1) Antoine Winfield, TB (tagged by TB at the moment)
2) Kyle Dugger, NE
3) Xavier McKinney, NYG
Useful safeties abound in this free agency year...like most of the recent free agent periods/years. It feels like safeties (1-2-3 of them) either get a break-the-bank deal (that never works out in the end) in a given FA period...or they go unsigned/unwanted and are panic-signing with teams a month or two+ from now.
Antoine Winfield is a cut above the group, but you’re gonna have to pay for it. After Winfield, there’s a ton of variety in style and cost and age. There is no reason to chase any single one of them, especially the ones that cost money. It’s just not that important in the grand scheme of payroll...especially when you can draft great athletes each year on day three and sign older safeties on a reasonable 1-year deal.
FFM's top three SAFs available (if I were an NFL GM)…
1) Antoine Winfield, TB
If you want to invest in a top safety...it’s Winfield or bust.
PREDICTION: No way the Bucs let him go. They’ll franchise tag him as they try to workout a deal.
2) Jeremy Chinn, CAR
A couple years ago, this guy was one of the better, emerging DB/LBs in the game...then he got hurt...then a coaching change changed his role, for the worst in 2023...now he limps into his free agency as a potential steal of a talent for a bargain price.
PREDICTION: He should take a one-year ‘prove it’ deal with a top team to rehab his image and go for a better deal in 2025.
Wild guess...he winds up in Denver, as Sean Payton would’ve seen him in-division (back in his NFC south days) at his best.
3) Julian Blackmon, IND
After Winfield, all I am looking for is solid talents that come at a discount/bargain. Blackmon is a somewhat under-the-radar safety talent...former CB turned SAF, he has cover skills but is also a solid tackler.
I think he’ll be a bargain, but he may be someone else's bargain too...and suddenly a mild bidding war breaks out.
PREDICTION: Given the same staff are back with Indy, I’ll assume they want him back and will pay for it. He will not get a chance to hit the market. If he does, he could be headed back with Matt Eberflus in Chicago (his original D-C).
The fraud SAF of free agency 2024: Jamal Adams, SEA
One of the biggest frauds in the NFL since he got drafted way too highly by the Jets...then ditched to Seattle, who paid him way too much and paid way too much in trade for him. He’s now a free agent for some suckier team to pounce on.
PREDICTION: This feels like a Bears or Falcons type of mistake...Washington could go there too.
The best value SAF in free agency 2024: Jeremy Chinn, CAR
Back-to-back 100+ tackle seasons right out of the gates (of his NFL career) for Chinn in 2020 and 2021...then pacing for his best season in 2022 but got hurt and his 2022 was cut short. A new D-C and HC in 2023 shifted him into a different role and more as a backup. His crime has been a change in coaching his last season.
PREDICTION: Sticking with the earlier projection of Denver...but just a dart throw guess. He should come cheap enough that he could wind up anywhere...maybe even taking a base deal for a year with a top team to pump his value and visibility back up.
The deep sleeper SAF in free agency 2024: Alohi Gilman, LAC
Started 14 games and had 10 passes defended, 2 picks, 3 forced fumbles, and five games with 7 or more tackles in a game...most of them solos. He could be the real gem of free agency among the safety ranks for the cost, which should be unfairly low...but safeties are often ignored/lowly paid.
PREDICTION: He had his best games in 2023 against Denver, Miami, Baltimore, and Detroit. He had two nice showings versus Denver...so, let’s guess Sean Payton saw this and could add cheap depth to his secondary.
Payton could afford one or both of safeties Chinn and Gilman, that he had some firsthand witnessing of at their best.
Article that goes perfectly with this review of the free agent safeties: https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/nfl-teams-have-cut-more-than-100-million-in-safeties-salaries
For more content from Fantasy Football Metrics: www.ffmetrics.com
Subscribe to FFM: FFM Subscription Information
