We're looking at free agency ahead of the official FA start period (March 13th, kinda officially…but things are happening all week+ prior), going position by position to discuss some of the big names, tour top ranked guys, as well as the sleepers and frauds of the group…and we'll make some throwaway/dart throw predictions on landing spots.
Today's position group: Quarterbacks
The consensus top three QBs available…
1) Kirk Cousins, MIN
2) Russell Wilson, DEN
3) Baker Mayfield, TB
Three QBs the football media has mostly hated for the past few years are now the three top QBs available in free agency. Coincidence?
The analysts and media may have hated them, and they’d like you to please forget that, but NFL teams in need of a QB will want two of them for sure. Teams in need would kill for Cousins. Some would take Baker as a fallback for missing on Cousins. Russ is the last hope for the desperate...and likely Russ will be the only one up for grabs.
I still don’t understand why Russell Wilson just doesn’t take his big failure payoff and go do bad reality shows or be a bad sports commentator somewhere, but apparently these guys need to hit rock bottom and beyond before they will leave the league.
FFM's top three QBs available (if I were an NFL GM)…
1) Kirk Cousins, MIN
An instant top ten or so QB signed for wherever he lands. Minnesota is going to regret playing around and getting into a ‘high bid wins’ war with Atlanta (and whomever else) to try to get back/re-sign Cousins.
PREDICTION: 50% chance Minnesota comes through...and buying Cousins means then Justin Jefferson is willing to return. It’s more about Jefferson than it is Cousins, in a sense.
50% chance it winds up that Atlanta outbids the Vikings. I think Cousins will take the best deal with a dome team...he’s not going to go play outdoors in the Northeast or Midwest...he doesn’t need to accept a less than desired situation.
If I were Cousins, I’d go to the Falcons and be with that nice young cast with their new coaches and an easy division that plays in a great geography division. But he also has Minnesota over a barrel...in a place he knows best.
If I had to pick one...I’ll say he bolts for Atlanta for the money and the situation, and doesn’t mind leaving Minnesota since they haven’t respected him like Atlanta will in this process.
2) Baker Mayfield, TB
Proved all the doubters (analysts, media, scouts, coaches, fans) wrong in 2023. He’s not as good as Cousins, but he’s better than anyone else on the board in free agency.
If I were an NFL GM...or let’s say GM of the Bucs, I’d just let Baker go and go draft one of the Penix-Nix rookies. Penix is Bruce Arians’ wet dream...thus Todd Bowles will agree with whatever Arians thinks.
PREDICTION: Baker has Tampa over a barrel. Tampa would be better for 2024 with Baker, but not better for the long term. Are the Bucs willing to take a step back in 2024 to have a better future and snub Baker and go the rookie route? Do they really want Todd Bowles to ‘manage’ a new rookie QB? Lots of moving parts in the decision for Tampa.
In the end, NFL teams tend to do the safest/surest thing (in their minds), so with Mike Evans being paid...Baker will be back too.
3) Tyrod Taylor, NYG
If I am looking for a short-term solution QB from the pile of rubble/rubbish, I think I’d go Tyrod over Brissett or Russ.
The Giants have played better whenever Tyrod is forced in...Tyrod has a Geno Smith-lite or Joe Flacco renaissance hope going on...so experienced a QB that you’re better off in 2024 with him than the rookies for JUST 2024 season.
PREDICTION: The NFL will NOT see it that way. Tyrod will go to the highest bidder to be a backup, which is probably back to NYG, but could be to the Lions as a better backup/emergency option.
The fraud QB of free agency 2024: Jameis Winston
The mainstream wants ‘their boy’ to work out/become a star so badly...it would clear the egg off their faces that they constantly apply with their horrific scouting...from Jameis...to Sam Darnold (who they just know is better than Purdy)...to Bryce Young...they are almost uncannily wrong about every QB they scout as the top guy in every draft.
When will they learn? Never.
And the NFL takes their cues from the media/analysts, so someone will pay Winston big to be a backup with hopes he wins the job or gets it via injury to the starter.
PREDICTION: A dumb team with a nonsense/non-offensive guru head coach will make this move... So, keep an eye on the Jets, the Steelers, and the Saints (again) to chase the fairy tale for a backup.
Occam’s razor would predict = back to the Saints...it’s too simple a thing.
The best value QB in free agency 2024: Tyrod Taylor
If you need a legit backup or an emergency possible ‘start the season while a rookie is groomed) starter on a decent team – Tyrod is your guy.
PREDICTION: Likely back to the Giants because of familiarity but could be good for Minnesota if they draft a rookie that they don’t want to rush to Week 1. But a return to the Giants is the spot that makes sense.
The deep sleeper QB in free agency 2024: Easton Stick
I thought Easton Stick looked pretty good/decent in his time filling in for Justin Herbert in 2023. Almost pulled a major upset on the Bills in his 3rd start. Ran the ball for 44.4 yards per game and 0.33 rush TDs his final 3 starts.
I’m not saying Stick is a hidden gem that should be a future starter...just noting that he’s a pretty solid backup who is still growing in experience and has a nice arm and good+ feet. He could be one of the better backups in the league.
PREDICTION: He should join a contender on a 1–2-year deal to be their backup to the obvious starter, so as not to threaten the current starter. The 49ers could replace awful Sam Darnold here...and with Brandon Staley advising on things, they might have better Stick insight. The Bills saw him at his best...he’d be a nice option behind Josh Allen over Mitch Trubisky.
I like the 49ers to sign him here with Brandon Staley as an advisor now to land Stick. Really, the Chargers should retain him behind Herbert for continuity, but he’s not a Jim Harbaugh guy.
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