We're looking at free agency ahead of the official FA start period (March 13th, kinda officially…but things are happening all week+ prior), going position by position to discuss some of the big names, tour top ranked guys, as well as the sleepers and frauds of the group…and we'll make some throwaway/dart throw predictions on landing spots.
Today's position group: Tight Ends...
The consensus top three TEs available…
1) Dalton Schultz, HOU *Signed back with HOU later in the day this was written
2) Hunter Henry, NE
3) Noah Fant, SEA
The consensus free agent list kinda rides along the ‘recent productivity’ line. Not a great year for free agent TEs, per se...and not a great year for rookie TEs. Even the NFL isn’t excited about these options...elsewise Schultz wouldn’t be being passed around of late...and Henry is yesterday’s news tight end who never was as good as they thought he’d be.
Brock Bowers’ NFL value spikes much higher based on the market economy of available TEs in the year 2024.
FFM's top three TEs available (if I were an NFL GM)…
1) Jonnu Smith, ATL
There were times last year where I thought Jonnu looked like one of the best weapons at TE in the league...he was running as a top 10 producer at TE for a stretch midseason...out-producing Kyle Pitts. And Jonnu was producing all different kinds of ways...bubble screens, regular passing game, a downfield threat. He’s a very undervalued TE asset and he would be the one guy I would chase in this class...because the price should be solid as well.
PREDICTION: If the L.A. Rams steal him at a discounted rate...wow. But it looks like Miami is homing in on this fast...smart on Miami, but a probable bad fit for Jonnu for FF.
2) Dalton Schultz, HOU
Everything went so well with the Texans offense and passing game in 2023, I think they bring everyone back to not jumble things up and Schultz was a solid part of the system last season. He’s not great...but he’s not bad.
PREDICTION: Texans don’t let him go away. Washington is the dark horse – Dan Quinn knowing him from their Dallas days.
*Re-signed with Houston 3/4/2024, after I wrote this report.
3) Noah Fant, SEA
Once Jonnu (upside) and Schultz (steady) are off the table, then there’s a drop off...and I’m not a Hunter Henry guy, and I’ve been intrigued by Fant for years. I’m not sure if he’s the problem/lazy or he’s been dealt the worst situations in the NFL to start a career. From awful Denver to unfocused on the TE/three-headed rotation TE for Pete Carroll. Fant profiled as a potential star back in the day coming out of Iowa...I thought he was exponentially better than his college teammate T.J. Hockenson.
For the price, Fant may be the best TE on my list.
PREDICTION: If I were Fant/Fant’s agent, I would recommend signing a one-year deal with a team where he could instantly start, and it be a progressive offense.
A perfect situation may be Minnesota...play while Hockenson rehabs from the ACL injury last 2023. Or join Joe Burrow for one year. Or take the Houston offer before Schultz finds out he’s not getting paid better anywhere else and wants to go back to the Texans.
The fraud TE of free agency 2024: Mike Gesicki, NE
State’s evidence/Exhibit A...for the best case anyone could have on why the NFL Combine times/measurements can be a giant fraud. Gesicki tested like a small ‘g’ god...and his NFL journey has been that of a stiff, insignificant TE. Granted...he’s played in some of the worst situations a TE could work in, but still...people seem to wanna pay him to be their TE. No doubt, some team will make the fiscal mistake again in 2024.
PREDICTION: Feels like something silly the Panthers would do to give Bryce a bigger target to float his prayer passes to...hoping the guy makes a play on his balloons...like early NFL-Tua used to do.
The best value TE in free agency 2024: Noah Fant, SEA
As mentioned earlier...a supreme talent profile coming out of Iowa and underutilized on bad situations his whole career. He’s had some ‘wow’ moments/games/plays but mostly been underutilized. He may be a weapon ready to take off...or a lazy TE who blew his chance at fame/fortune.
PREDICTION: I think it’s gonna be a one-year deal with incentives...to bet on himself, kinda like Evan Engram did. Didn’t you give up (in FF) on Engram after/during his Giants run...and now look at him? I think Fant could give a version of that.
The deep sleeper TE in free agency 2024: Harrison Bryant, CLE
A solid TE talent who had some nice games when David Njoku was out...but he’s been buried behind Njoku his whole career. He’s got a chance to shine with a new team in free agency...if he can get a look as a primary TE, not a 2nd-ET/blocker/rotational.
PREDICTION: Likely, he’ll be overlooked but a smart team will snag him and make him part of their TE room and he’s nice depth in case of emergency.
If he goes overlooked/cheap...the Chiefs might make him their Kelce insurance, over Noah Gray. Minnesota may like him to be there while Hockenson is rehabbing.
If a team were to see real value in him as their possible #1 TE...it might be Houston, if they pass on Schultz or the Broncos look to make him a co-starter with Greg Dulcich as a receiving threat TE. Miami might be interested as well.
The Bengals would be a dark horse option, having seen Bryant for years in division.
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