We're looking at free agency ahead of the official FA start period (March 13th, kinda officially…but things are happening all week+ prior), going position by position to discuss some of the big names, tour top ranked guys, as well as the sleepers and frauds of the group…and we'll make some throwaway/dart throw predictions on landing spots.
Today's position group: Running Back
The consensus top three RBs available…
1) Saquon Barkley
2) Josh Jacobs
3) Derrick Henry
There’s universal agreement that Saquon is the #1 RB in this free agent class. And pretty much universal agreement that Jacobs is #2. Then it varies for #3...Derrick Henry is usually the #3 but some dump him down for their abject fear of ‘age’ of players. Every free agent report/rankings/article I see...Henry’s age is mentioned in the first sentence almost 100% of the time.
When I look at these top 3 FA RBs...and also thinking about Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler also being free agents, I have two thoughts...
1) If you ever doubted how bad the RB market is, and why you shouldn’t chase RBs in the NFL Draft nor pay them mega-deals...just look at the talent available in this free agent class. It’s a ‘who’s who’ of the top RBs in the game...and they’re just cast aside like leftover food...ready for anyone else to come and sift through/pick over and add them to their roster. And some of them at a steep discount – allowing the already good/great NFL teams with salary cap constraints to add to performers on mercenary, discounted 1–2-year deals.
2) Barkley-Jacobs-Henry-Pollard-Ekeler...they were five of the top 10 RBs in preseason Fantasy Football 2023. Now look at them, for FF...mostly distrusted, some written off less than a year later. Insane.
Are you going to run around like crazy, in Dynasty leagues, trying to lock up RBs again...fretting over your RB group...over-focusing on your RB group? The NFL isn’t.
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FFM's top three RBs available (if I were an NFL GM)…
1) Derrick Henry
I’m not afraid of ‘age’ in this modern era of RBs (or any position/player)...if a misinterpretation of ‘age’ gets me a discount, then ‘wow’ how awesome for salary cap strapped teams. And Derrick Henry is a unique case within all this -- in that he’s in supreme condition, but is being treated like he’s a car that just hit 100,000 miles and the residual value is toast and the warranties are gone.
To me, 30 years old is the new 26-27 years old from a decade ago. Henry might have 3-4 years left in him. Hell, Latavius Murray was terrific at age 32 for Denver in 2022 then was very competent in 2023 for Buffalo, and might have been an RB leader -- they just didn’t use him as much, because they didn’t need to and then they really reduced him down the stretch and only used him situationally. When they expanded Murray’s game, earlier 2023 season, he was fine...in fact, in FF, people were grabbing up Latavius off waivers because it looked like he might split/nudge out James Cook at one point last season. How much better of a talent and condition/ing is Henry than Latavius Murray? Dalvin Cook 2021 to 2022 to 2023 is not the rule anymore...he’s an outlier. You focus on Cook...I’ll raise you a 31+ year old Raheem Mostert and his 21 TDs in 2023.
Last season was a down year for Henry, but he had the worst offensive line of this decade, in my book, to work behind.
I have Henry #1 among the RB free agents, not because he’s clearly better than a Saquon Barkley...but we have to consider the economics and roster strategy...I’m just not stupid enough to pay a younger RB a mega-deal when I can just grab guys like Henry for less overall money and a shorter term and just keep ‘streaming’ NFL RBs like I would in FF. I don’t want to be locked into any RB long-term or expensively.
You get Derrick Henry in 2024, and you instantly have one of the best run games in the NFL that day of acquisition...if that’s the way your offense is built...and half+ of the league still wants to ‘establish the run’.
2024 FA PREDICTION: So many teams will want Henry, but many of those teams will want to/have to pair him with their existing RB. Henry ain’t going for that – he’s going to go where he will be THE MAN and to get paid as such.
The Ravens tried to trade for him before, now I predict they’ll get him in free agency. The Eagles are going to make a big push too. It’s between those two.
Las Vegas is a deep sleeper to take a shot on him instead of Jacobs.
2) Austin Ekeler
How great has Ekeler been the past few years? Except 2023 was a down season...he got hurt early, fought through it on a bad team and had a down year and now everyone thinks he’s dead. He’s not dead...is the way I’m playing it...I don’t fear age and create narratives to fit it. In this era, I’m an injury and age optimist....and because most people repel at that notion, I know I’m on the right track and found a lane I can drive in alone and cheaply. Like Henry, Ekeler is in supreme condition and just needs to get on a better coached team with a legit O-Line. That could be the 2024 Chargers, but the new regime will gut the old regime.
2024 FA PREDICTION: Like Henry, Ekeler doesn’t want to sign to be in a split role backfield...he wants to be paid to be a lead RB. I think there are less teams willing to pay him to do that than there are teams looking for a Derrick Henry, but there will be teams that will grab this bargain.
I think Kevin O’Connell/Minnesota makes Ekeler his Kyren Williams, copying his mentor Sean McVay, but he has Ty Chandler in the hole in case Ekeler does falter.
I think Houston is in play as well...a Devin Singletary upgrade for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Denver will inquire, but Ekeler won’t want to share a backfield with Javonte and play for a rookie QB with Sean Payton.
I don’t think Ekeler is better than Saquon or Jacobs...but for the price/cost...he is for my FA economics at RB – short term thinking with flexibility and young, cheap protégé (or two) drafted on day three from the last draft or two as my insurance chip.
3) Saquon Barkley
The real, overall prize of free agency...a top talent in his prime...but it’s gonna be VERY expensive. Saquon is going wherever the most money is, as he should. Geography and Super Bowl hopes and existing O-Line won’t matter as much here – Saquon is going to play this get paid.
2024 FA PREDICTION: A bidding war between Chicago, New England, Carolina, and Washington...a collection of the worst run teams chasing to overpay at running back. High bid wins. Philadelphia may bite the bullet here too if they miss on Derrick Henry.
In a battle of Philly v. Chicago, in the end, I’ll guess the Eagles in a coin flip. If the Bears are gonna draft a QB and trade Fields, if that’s 100% true...then I’ll bet Chicago adds him to help transition to a young QB...but I’m not convinced Chicago is changing QBs yet.
The fraud RB of free agency 2024: Alexander Mattison
Why I have no faith in the Vikings management team...they paid Mattison a lot of money, on purpose, to be their lead back in 2023. One of the single stupidest moves any team made in 2023 free agency/contracts. Now, at least, they cut Mattison...sending him into the pool.
Some team will pay Mattison $2-3M to join their backfield...a sure sign of a team that has no idea what it is doing.
2024 FA PREDICTION: This is the kind of dumb thing Buffalo would try to do to pair with James Cook...because they want a physical banger to go with Cook. If the Ravens miss on Henry, they might go this cheaper route for their physical RB to replace Gus Edwards...but then they might as well just re-add Gus back (which I think they’ll do...if they miss on Henry).
In the end, Buffalo and the Giants are my two ‘faves’ to try to land Mattison...the Giants more likely because so many legit players will avoid going to NYG as Brian Daboll is chasing them away.
The best value player in free agency 2024: Zack Moss
A fantastic 2023, a renaissance. I don’t know what he did, physically or chemically or something from outer space from his 2022 self to his 2023 self, but it was a whole new RB. Moss was one of the best RBs that I saw work in 2023...size, speed, agility, hands...if you didn’t believe in alien takeovers of human bodies, then Moss 2023 may change your mind.
Moss will come at a bargain and could be the cheap lead RB for teams being fiscally responsible at RB.
Hopefully, Moss’s agent doesn’t take the first deal that comes along for him to be a split role or secondary back to an established starter...he could get a pretty good opportunity from some team if he plays his cards right. But with so many big name RBs up for grabs, Moss could be a real ‘loser’ in the free agent sweepstakes.
2024 FA PREDICTION: Buffalo should want to have him back, but Moss likely won’t answer that call.
If Baltimore strikes out on Henry, this may be their plan B.
The Chargers could make Moss a part of a duo with Blake Corum or other rookie.
The Titans could try and pair him with Tyjae Spears.
I think we’ll be shocked by how well Moss gets treated in free agency...or, more likely, I’ll be shocked by how every team looked right past this and Moss just takes the best of the bad deals offered to him to go be a backup/split again. My flier guess is the Ravens chase him cheap, if they miss Henry. The Chargers if not Baltimore...but that’s a 10-cent guess. NYG may need to overpay him to come there when everyone else on the higher tier rejects them.
The deep sleeper player in free agency 2024: D’Onta Foreman
The cheaper Zach Moss alternative...a legit starting, power RB...but one who definitely comes cheap and always overlooked. Why a contender team doesn’t add him to be depth or part of a duo, I have no idea...for the cost it’s a great add.
2024 FA PREDICTION: I thought the Bills would add Foreman to split with Cook, but that was wrong last year...probably wrong again this year.
Foreman goes too cheaply and thus he could wind up anywhere...Philly, Baltimore, NYG, Packers, etc.
Pure guess: Buffalo...I’ll try one more time to match make this.
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