Intro:
What a turn of events! Last week was miserable scoring for every man, woman, and child playing FF and it was a 50/50 win-rate week last week around the FFM tracking, better than I expected...but still a general miserable start to any season. Those that lost, some lost HUGE and it looked like no hope for 2023.
And with Rachaad White sucking (Wk1) and Burrow dying and the general malaise -- there were plenty of people letting me know how dumb I was/how bad at my job I am...others were silently thinking it. It’s OK, I know you were -- I was thinking about myself as well. I’m human.
But then Week 2 happened...and everyone (most) are all...
https://youtu.be/wV9jXiyZzH0?si=cpoZIC9qN5kESBZy
What a week in FFM-land, my goodness. You guys, in general, beat the freaking brakes off of people this week. Wow. We’re tracking a 70%+ win-rate going into MNF with a bias of it being 75%+ with an above expectation Saints and/or Steelers night...possibly 80%+ win rate (in all scoring formats, and redraft, Dynasty, Best Ball, etc.) if Rashid Shaheed, the Saints-DST, and/or Juwan Johnson has a night.
I can break it down who’s happy or mad reading this, going into the MNF twin bill...
We have the (2-0) or just won (1-1) FF owners... You won this week. My plan of QB + old WRs bias (OEWR) + Rachaad as a value pick -- it popped big in Week 2. Lead your league in scoring weeks especially if Juwan does just OK and the Saints DST comes out to play tonight.
All is right with the world.
We have the (0-2) FF owners... Who thinks I’m an idiot still, and they by-and-large have Joe Burrow as their QB.
I’m not letting you steal my sunshine today. (0-2) is not a death sentence, even if you have Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase as foundational pieces (although MY plan was early Hurts-Mahomes-Allen...with Burrow/Fields as a failsafe safety net).
I’ll say it a million times a year. Most of you know the drill and have been through it, but I have to say it again for any FFMers AND (0-2) cranky veteran FFMers -- in most every league, worst case, if you can get to (1-3) with the team improving in roster by all the moves were making and will make, then you’re a game behind the (2-2) playoff group. One game out of the playoffs with like 9-10+ weeks of games to go, depending on your league structure.
You may have lost because of Burrow’s calf? Add +20 to your Wk1 tally and +5-10 to your Wk2 tally -- would you have won with normal Burrow?
Did you lose because an opponent had the Dallas-DST Week 1...or Daniel Jones (somehow) Week 2? Had they had normal games (cut their score in half) would you have won? Was your Kelce out hurt Week 1? Did you lose Cooper Kupp before we even started...did you lose Austin Ekeler for last week? Your team may not be as bad as you think -- just a bad schedule draw in 2 of the 13-14 games you’ll play in this season or a key injury last second. It will even out. You might even be waiting on Alvin Kamara for a rocket boost in 2 weeks.
Don’t panic...
But I know 25-50% of the (0-2) FF owners are gonna panic. It’s just a fact of FF life. Some people play this game because they secretly love the misery. When they’re (2-0) they aren’t happy...so (0-2) is right in their wheelhouse.
I will do my best to save you. It’s mental. This is a 13-18 round boxing match just getting started.
I will also say this about (2-0) or strong Week 2 winning (1-1) REDRAFT or Dynasty teams -- they mostly followed the draft logic or roster management logic -- stay QB strong, fade into value RBs for an RBBC, go to older, proven WRs over chasing every rookie with flashing lights and big eyelash blinking eyes.
I can probably look at your bench for Week 2 and tell you your record...and your future...redraft or Dynasty. The more rookies you have on the bench, the guys you’re sitting on to have this big moment where they’re all superstars next week...like if 25-50%+ of your bench is rookie hopes and dreams (fairy tales) -- then you’re probably (0-2) or (1-1).
But if I see just a rookie or two but I see a lot of veteran WR names...like Tutu, Nick Collins, Bourne, Reynolds (kicking myself for doubting him this week), Woods, Evans, Pickens and not rookies and 19 backup RBs hoping for a miracle injury to the starter on one of them -- then I know you got strong starters to have such a strong bench and you’re not filled with all these fantastical lottery tickets on your bench.
We’re all gonna have a gamble guy or two or a handcuff or two, but I am seeing 8-man benches with 5 backup RBs and three rookie somethings and no backup QB or 2nd TE and it’s frustrating me because we are so in love with this rookie story where we’re gonna get the no name guy for free and it becomes some magical payoff. For every one of those that happens -- there’s 100-200 times it didn’t happen, or not on cue...where you have them now and cut them for others THEN they went off away from you. You gotta let that $#!& go.
We gotta be operational. We gotta try to win NOW...not 4-6 weeks from now when rookies start to blossom some more and in Dynasty, we can’t keep playing for ‘next year’ with the moves we make now. It’s not a crime to have a functional, smart 27-30+ year old WR or two or five -- if they’re starting and producing on good+ offenses...or even on shaky offenses.
Tutu Atwell or Jaxon Smith-Njigba last week -- the answer was Tutu. The world held JSN and stuck their nose up at Tutu. I could put Roschon Johnson with Tutu and same outcome. 3rd and 4th year WRs are showing us how far their game has become these first 2 weeks -- don’t ignore them chasing a fairy tale.
Your call.
The fairy tale is more fun. But Tyler Lockett is likely better to start 2023 with than JSN. Just picking on JSN. There may be examples of rookies doing well...and that proves me wrong. No, it doesn’t...because the Keenan Allen’s and Mike Evans’s and Tyler Lockett’s are doing just fine. And I bet they will defeat the rookies as we go. There might be one rookie who explodes (Puka) and if I missed it...it’s OK, I got all the Aiyuk’s and Keenan’s and Pickens and Evans’s to work with. I can’t possess everyone.
Good luck with your doubleheader MNF games tonight, whatever you need from it.
Great job to those who blew up Week 2 -- either with a big win, or a high-scoring loss. You’re fine. Everyone is fine. We’re gonna make a thousand moves in the next 2-3 weeks. (2-0) teams, don’t get too high and mighty -- keep scrapping.
Take advantage of the (0-2) teams in trade this week, as always. The panic levels just keep getting higher with the (0-2s).
Some of you are gonna be mad with the notes ahead, because you’re the one that has rookie-fever. If you get madder as you read -- then it was meant for you, I’m trying to get through to you to take the rookie-fever or 17 backup RBs bench battle down a few notches.
--THREE PLAYERS--
LV-BUF
-- And just like that...Josh Allen (31-37 for 3 TDs/0 INT, 3-7-0) is ‘fixed’. After last week’s MNF three pick event he was being damned to hell -- this week, a cruise through Las Vegas’s defense will pause that talk for a bit. Congrats if you bought him low in the panic last week.
-- James Cook (17-123-0, 4-36-0/4) had a big game, but more importantly...he really looks good as the main RB. For his size, he plays much bigger -- and was very elusive and slippery here, and tough...and he has been that every time I watch him going back to last year, which always surprises me for his size. No worries about Cook from here week-to-week...except he comes out a lot near the end zone. TDs will be hard to come by.
What is a nice surprise is -- Cook is averaging 4.0 catches per game so far this season...4 catches in each game.
-- Josh Jacobs (9 carr., -2 yds, 5-51-0/6) got crushed here. I’m not fully sure what happened because as this game got out of hand, I left focus of it during the live watch with all the other games going. I’ll see what the tape says.
My inclination is -- this might not be a ‘buy low’ situation. A Raiders collapse had to be of concern here for Jacobs to really be a true/pure ‘go get’. RBs are popping up all over, so I’m not sure the price would go low enough here to warrant pursuit.
BAL-CIN
-- Joe Burrow (27-41 for 222 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) re-injured his calf celebrating his 2nd TD pass later in the game. Yes, we do have a Burrow problem...if you’re a Burrow owner. He’s been trying to work through the calf issue, and he seemed fine...was practicing full and not on any injury list -- but obviously something is wrong. Burrow just didn’t forget how to play football.
Week 3 is either -- worry about Burrow trying to play...or worry about what to do to replace Burrow because he’s on IR for the next 4 weeks.
I say it all year -- you lose a player at any other position, they’re more easily replaceable. You lose your ace QB, or don’t have one -- you’re FF-screwed most likely. This is why I always draft and maintain two QBs (min.) on my roster, and I don’t go chase 17 rookies off waivers over the first 3 weeks of the season span with a roster spot that should be for a #2 QB with me dreaming of hitting the mega-millions with one or all 17 of the rookie lottery tickets -- only having the extra roster spot to play the rookie lotto because I was only carrying one QB.
The second QB isn’t important...until it is.
Burrow owners are in a hole...the Bengals are in a hole, and it’s going to be a grind to climb out of it. That will be my main focus of FF Week 3 -- fixing the Burrow problem. Hopefully, you have an organic answer on your roster. If you don’t...this is gonna be a long season, and we just got started -- but it can be overcome even if you didn’t roster a legit #2 QB...or your #2 QB (like Pickett) is scary...we can fix it, but it will take time and maneuvering.
-- Burrow’s issue takes down Ja’Marr Chase (5-31-0/8) and Tee Higgins (8-89-2/12) upside. If Burrow is gone, they’re both cast to WR2/3s...because the Bengals ALSO did not think a 2nd QB was important. They have no answer on their roster -- they didn’t think this (his calf) was an issue either.
-- Zay Flowers (4-62-0/5) came back to earth a little bit...I’m a buyer on any weakness. He looks fantastic...he’s a rookie I would chase, but I’m not overpaying...just trying to steal or ‘pass’. Zay is nice but Robert Woods (for example) might be right with him or close for 10% of the price).
KC-JAX
-- The best news from this game...I played the Alt. prop of Christian Kirk (11-110-0/14) ‘over’ 100+ yards at +1,000 odds among the basket of props I put in the handicapping notes every Saturday night...and BINGO was his name-o.
I don’t think this is ‘a thing’, with Kirk now, per se. Last week Kirk was nothing. This week Zay Jones (0-0-0/6) flopped, when last week he shined. They seem to work as opposites. Kirk is a WR2/3. Calvin Ridley (2-23-0/8) is the one receiver Trevor has eyes for...period, a WR1/2 is Ridley. Zay is a WR2/3...more WR3/4.
-- Skyy Moore (3-70-1/4) retribution! You know, if Mahomes was more accurate Week 1...and Skyy had a 4-50-0/5 game Week 1...you’d have been OK with him last week and now kinda excited. Now, you’re just pissed he didn’t do this last week when you spot started him.
I’m on the fence going forward... Just 4 targets here...3-4 official last week. And I don’t see a pitch-and-catch relationship with Mahomes...I just see a random event, but a random event on a typically high functioning offense. A random event on the field more than any of the other WRs. He has some Josh Reynolds hopes more than Amon-Ra St. Brown ones.
-- Credit the KC defense here...these are two positive events for the KC-DST this season. Last week, Detroit scored 21 points but one of the TDs was a pick-six/non-offensive. Then they held the Jags, a very good/efficient Jags offense, to three field goals in this game. We’re back in business with the deep, talented KC defense...vs. CHI-NYJ next two weeks.
LAC-TEN
-- So many of you went the boring OLD Keenan Allen (8-111-2/10) route in round-three of the redraft...and that one paid off nicely this week. Not bad last week. Great this week. It was a layup in the 3rd-round of redrafts. Congrats! No end in sight...especially because LAC’s defense can’t stop anybody. Shootouts galore!
-- DeAndre Hopkins (4-40-0/5) played this game at a limited rate due to a bad ankle. He didn’t look too bad but was more the decoy we discussed Sunday than a real weapon. He’s a solid WR2 hope this season in PPR.
He’s an old WR you can potentially target as a ‘buy low’ this week.
-- Joshua Kelley (13-390, 0-0-0/1) got his big chance and reminded us, and the Chargers management, that Ekeler isn’t easily replaceable. One of the rare few RBs irreplaceable with a like-output option. When Ekeler is back, it will be a split of some kind with Kelley...and thus Kelley is an RB3/4 with Ekeler, and RB2/3 without Ekeler.
Tennessee has the best run defense I see so far...that didn’t help Kelley either.
GB-ATL
-- Another somewhat erratic but sometimes neat, 3 pass TD event from Jordan Love (14-25 for 151 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT). He’s faced two easy defenses off the jump. Now comes trouble -- NO-DET the next two weeks, then at LV Week 5 then a bye. Bad stretch coming.
-- And...I’m done with A.J. Dillon (15-55-0, 1-8-0/1). I mean, I was already done but I did propose him as a nice starter this week in lineups. If there was gonna be a week -- this was it/no Aaron Jones...and it wasn’t. Sayonara.
-- Kyle Pitts (2-15-0/5) had 2 catches here...Jonnu Smith (4-47-0/6) doubled that output. It’s criminal. I don’t have a case for anyone holding Pitts at this stage...unless you think ATL trades him? Actually, Pitts is as random a TE1 hope as 20+ other starting TEs. For lack of anything great, you could hold and hope for one nice moment/output game to trade him -- people LOVE him.
SEA-DET
-- More boring old WRs going off...Tyler Lockett (8-59-2/10) was another old, boring veteran WR who went off this week...guys OEWR...Old Elite Wide Receivers) we targeted/kept in mind by plan in redraft and in Dynasty trade. If you followed the concept -- you likely had a blowout win this week. If you chased exciting rookies instead...you probably are under pressure this week.
-- Boring old Josh Reynolds (5-66-2/6) had two TDs as well. I thought he’d struggle potentially against the Seattle secondary, but he had a fine game. I benched him more than used him. But benched him for other old WRs, so it mostly worked out.
-- Jahmyr Gibbs (7-17-0, 7-39-0/9) got his extra targets to make him an RB2 this week in PPR. So glad I took Keenan Allen in most 3rd’s and let others take Gibbs.
Jahmyr will be fine/useful in PPR...just not this radical being from another planet that we can ONLY imagine the possibilities of the way Detroit will use him. Haven’t seen anything all that exciting yet.
IND-HOU
-- Anthony Richardson (6-10 for 56 yards, 3-35-2) left the game with a concussion, but he was on his way to an epic week before that. He’s already a QB1 for 2023...now it’s a countdown to when he’s a top 3-5 guy...it might be this year.
Those of you that went ARich as your #2 QB...you’re sitting on a goldmine, or savior from a Burrow, etc.
-- I can’t believe I’m gonna say this, but...Zach Moss (18-88-0, 4-19-0/4) actually looked good. Quicker than I’ve ever seen him. He’s the man for Indy...potentially the man for the rest of the season. Jonathan Taylor will likely be traded in the next 2-4 weeks.
-- As I was saying about Tank Dell (7-72-1/10) last week...
There is just something unspoken between them. Nico Collins (7-146-1/9) is playing well but I don’t see him as connected to Stroud...but Nico is FF-hitting now too. And Robert Woods (6-74-0/9) is hiding in plain sight...but he’s an old boring WR, so most will want to chase a rookie off waivers at WR instead of Woods this week. Enjoy Mims, Hyatt, Downs, etc.
Houston is gonna be down a lot...and throwing a lot...so this group is going to be PPR money often this season.
CHI-TB
-- What? Old man Mike Evans (6-171-1/8) had a day too? What is up with these old WRs? I’m sure they’ll all break a hip in a week or two. Congrats to those who made Evans a part of their middle of the redraft or Dynasty acquisition plan this offseason.
You can’t beat the classics...
But enjoy those ever-promising rookie WRs with all their upside!! We scratched that itch too this week...with Tank Dell, for free for most. We do it all here...old and new!
-- D’Onta Foreman (DNP) was a healthy inactive, so it’s only a matter of time before he is cut if/as the bears season plummets. Keeping Justin Fields (16-29 for 211 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs, 4-3-1) and not trading him PLUS keeping their 1st-round pick to take Anthony Richardson will go down as one of the worst business decisions of the decade.
That being said, we’re moving closer to a Roschon Johnson (4-32-0, 2-10-0/2) as the main lead back for the Bears...in a 60/40 split with Khalil Herbert (7-35-0, 1-23-0/3).
-- What? You thought I wouldn’t mention Rachaad White (17-73-1, 5-30-0/5)? Expecting me to gloat? Nope.
My one hope for RW owners...do you at least believe me NOW that Sean Tucker (8-7-0) is not the double-secret(-probation) plan of the Bucs, contrary to what ALL the mainstream football media has said all summer?
We’ve only just begun with Rachaad...the best is yet to come.
SF-LAR
-- Puka Nacua (15-147-0/20) had quite the follow up from his Week 1 breakout. It’s blowing my mind how easy this is to pitch and catch with him -- I mean that from a standpoint of, no one ever covered him for three quarters of this game. He literally did the same thing as last week -- couple yards sprint, no one up on him at all, quick turn and catch...over and over and over.
After about 15 throws, the 49ers had the bright idea to start covering him tighter/closer and then it got a bit harder for Puka to sweep in those easy grabs. He actually dropped a couple. If you got him, you gotta ride him until you can’t ride him no more. I don’t know if/when defenses will figure this out, but you might as well assume they won’t for a while.
-- Brandon Aiyuk (3-43-0/6) got banged up in this game, so he played less snaps and wasn’t as involved as the game went on. The injury is to blame for the down week.
-- Lost in the Puka hysteria is Tutu Atwell (7-77-0/9) turning into a real WR. He’s averaging 6.5 rec., 98.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game after two weeks. I don’t think this is slowing down ahead.
NYG-ARI
-- Daniel Jones (26-37 for 321 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 9-59-1) did nothing for a half...then suddenly piled on the numbers in the 2nd half. He’s so into running the ball now...he’s got a shot to be a QB1 this season with his run rate again.
-- Zach Ertz (6-56-0/8) has back-to-back 6 catch games. He’s got a good connection with Josh Dobbs. The problem is -- not many yards or TD opps here. He did just get his fingertip on a 25+ yard catch but couldn’t reel it in...he was WIDE OPEN.
-- The problem with any of these Arizona FF options is the schedule ahead. Dallas and SF back-to-back the next two weeks. Not good. It’s a tough schedule, mostly, for the next several weeks/all season.
NYJ-DAL
-- I know this was Zach Wilson’s (12-27 for 170 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs, 5-36-0) 2nd/3rd/4th chance at NFL life...and it was against Dallas, but same old Zach. He’s not cut out for this.
The Jets will DEFINITELY sign or trade for a QB this week.
-- Breece Hall (4-9-0, 0-0-0/2) didn’t do anything wrong...but there was just no space to run, and obviously you can play (the defense can) the Jets to run now...and once it got out of hand it made sense to pull him and not stress his recovering knee.
-- The Jets defense is supposed to be this special thing, but they could stop the basic passes to CeeDee Lamb (11-143-0/13)...when they had to know every other pass goes to CeeDee, especially with Brandin Cooks out.
WSH-DEN
-- In the first half, I was impressed with Russell Wilson (18-32 for 308 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) as his team raced out to a 21-3 lead, but then he and the whole team collapsed in the 2nd-half...Russ’s FF day saved by a lucky hail mary at the end. I can’t put my finger on what is wrong with Russ...but I don’t think he’ll be benched. He is looking much better than his 2022 self.
-- Brandon Johnson (2-66-2/3) was the one the business end of the hail mary, giving him two TDs for the game. He’s a guy to keep an eye on the next time Jeudy-Sutton goes down or gets traded. A young, professional WR.
-- Chalk this win up to the better QB in the game...Sam Howell (27-39 for 299 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 2-13-0). I’m glad I got onboard the Howell Train so long ago (last week). I stick by my claim that the Commanders can make the playoffs behind Howell. And he’s now in the FF picture as well.
MIA-NE
-- Jaylen Waddle (4-86-0/6) just feels like a walking injury waiting to happen...every catch or target he came up limping or clutching his cranium. He will likely be limited in practice all week, but he looks like he can go when needed/should play Week 3.
-- Salvon Ahamed got hurt in-game, which opened up space for a few Devon Achane (1-5-0) snaps -- either Achane or Chris Brooks could be in line for some touches next week IF Ahmed goes down.
-- Another TD for Hunter Henry (6-52-1/7). I can’t say ‘no’ to anyone grabbing him/starting him, but man does Mac Jones not look good. Did you see him fading his body on some of his throws with any pressure around? How they stayed in this game, I have no idea.
If you like Henry -- go for it. He’s as promising as any non-Kelce/Andrews in existence.
===== FIVE PLAYERS =====
*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..
***IF FAAB% mentioned at any time below is based on a 16–20-man roster/12-team league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
*Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.
1) WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Grade A-/B+)
He was here last week, and again this week. Not being a rookie or 2nd-year rookie-like, many people passed on him for other sexier hopes. Some of these just need 3-4 years...as we started finding out last year when guys like this were popping up strong early on and everybody turned their nose up at them.
I’m as guilty of anyone here not taking this seriously... Atwell has turned into a real WR right in front of my face. A guy I used to joke about how sorry he was...what a bad draft pick (and he was, he’s not unique and it’s been 4 years) he was -- he’s come into his own and is not just ‘existing’ and gets some non-Puka targets; he is making tough catches and getting open. Good for him. He is real...the L.A. Rams passing game is real.
We had him high on the free agent list week...he’s back again. He won’t be next week.
2) WR Josh Reynolds, DET (Grade B/B-)
Another option in front of our faces last week, but people tended to bypass in pursuit of a 19th backup RB who might prosper for a week if the starter tweaked his ankle...or rather grabbed another rookie flier WR who might be the next big thing (or be cut this week in order to pick up Reynolds).
Reynolds isn’t sexy, he’s just ‘good’ in a good place and now that he scored two TDs last week -- the price is MUCH higher this week.
3) RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Grade: B-)
This is a proper gamble rookie RB off waivers (that needed to happen a week ago). Roschon is the talent in Chicago...the inevitable starting RB, but that likely means he starts in a ‘split’...but he’ll be the lead of the split.
4) RB Matt Breida, NYG (Grade B/C)
Saquon Barkley down and Daboll’s backup RB from their time together at Buffalo is the next man up. He’s ‘OK’, nothing special...but he is the guy off waivers this early week that will see good touches for those in RB need. Touches trump talent.
This has limited value depending upon the Saquon injury severity -- but it looked bad. If Saquon is ‘done’ then NYG will sign or trade for an RB in short order. Maybe even trading for Jonathan Taylor?!?!?
*UPDATE...Saquon out for three weeks, so Breida is in a good spot for touches but...really...how good do you think this output is gonna be? It’s only ‘so’ valuable. How’d you like the A.J. Dillon and Josh Kelley true/clean/starter gone starts Week 2?
5) WR Tank Dell, HOU (Grade: C+)
One of our top sleeper waiver plays last week -- this was one of the gamble rookie WRs to peak at for the price if you had space. I don’t think they can get him out of the lineup going forward...and Stroud has ‘eyes’ for him, like was the basis of my thinking last week.
6) PK Brandon Aubrey, DAL (Grade: D-)
7/7 FGs out of the gates...the #2 (4-way tie) kicker in FF. A kicker doing well on a top team. He’s got hope if you’re looking to pivot on kickers.
7) PK Jake Moody, SF (grade: D-)
6/6 FGs out of the gates...the #2 (4-way tie) kicker in FF. A kicker doing well on a top team as well. He is also ‘hope’ if you’re looking to pivot on kickers.
Rookie kickers are a different beast altogether...
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***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***
1) TE Dawson Knox, BUF
He’s always going to be ‘the other guy’ when thinking about BUF TEs as we go. Dalton Kincaid will pull away from him over time...short time. You’ve got plenty of other TEs who are stiff and you hope they catch a TD pass to choose from.
2) RB Devon Achane, MIA
Got a few snaps Week 2 when Salvon Ahmed hurt his shoulder. Everyone will go rookie-nuts for this possible magic unicorn, but old man Mostert is great and won’t give up much to the backups and Ahmed is the #2 when healthy and #4 Chris Brooks is better than Achane. And Jeff Wilson is back (supposedly) in two weeks or so.
3) TE Zach Ertz, ARI
Great start to the season, BUT...high catches, low yards, no TDs AND a rough schedule the next two weeks, minimum. You’ll have time to stash hoping he gets traded to a great place in 3-4-5 weeks. His value is 3-4 weeks from now...maybe...hopefully.
4) WR Marvin Mims, DEN
I like Marvin Mims, but this is a chess move not a scouting/emotional move...and it may be wrong/different 5-8 weeks from now...
Long TD...nice Week 2...played 16 snaps. You rookie-loving eyes light up at all the sugar plum fairies dancing around Mims...you don’t even acknowledge Brandon Johnson. And if you go ‘who?’ at the mention of Johnson -- then that’s the (rookie-loving) problem.
When I type/say ‘rookie-loving’, you could substitute the curse word ‘M F’ in its place for what I’m trying to convey this week.
5) WR Kendrick Bourne, NE
I have nothing against Bourne, but I do have things against Mac Jones...and the upcoming NE schedule...and the return of DeVante Parker.
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*I AM SAVING ANY ‘BACKUP QB TO JOE BURROW’ TALK FOR THAT BAL-CIN GAME REPORT OUT NEXT*
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***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
*THE KEY with pursuing any of these players this week...is IF the current owner lost their game with this player. Owners who won Week 1 are fat-dumb-happier/hard to deal with than Week 1 losers who think the sky has fallen and they can’t get up, and they must change/fix everything right now and they must punish underperformers in some way.
1) QB Anthony Richardson, IND
This one won’t be easy, BUT...if the current owner already has an ace QB and they have a need (usually RB) that you can fill -- you would be wise to look at a deal if you have Burrow or ‘other’ struggling QB. Overpay if you have to – but in redraft you should see back-end QB1 pricing for AR in redraft, but the pricing is dependent upon the current owner -- if AR is their only real QB, you’re likely barking up the wrong tree. If the current owner doesn’t have an obvious need and/or you don’t have a way to fill that need.
Like, I’d love to see a Kyren Williams for Richardson swap with an owner who’s ‘RBs are killing them’ (the famous statement of all FF players everyday of their existence). Do you have a hot thing right now that will cool to send for their #2 QB...Kyren, Swift (and you’d maybe get AR+ for Swift this week).
The price isn’t cheap, but it is buying low for where AR is going...and for your Burrow emergency needs.
The AR concussion helps make him more available.
2) WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF
Great Week 1...down Week 2 (due to Aiyuk banged up...we have to see what his injury is first), but if he’s generally fine/not incapacitated -- chasing him off the Week 2 down event is wise because he’s a WR1 in PPR when healthy. Try to acquire as a random WR2-2.5 valuation.
3) TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF
DYNASTY buy. Every week of the season the ‘bloom’ will come off the rookie roses as they get exposed for just being regular old football players, not magical unicorns.
Kincaid is the #2 TE on BUF...Knox just had a TD week, so Knox seems better. Kincaid hasn’t popped yet...so, his value is fading like a new car driven off the lot -- that’s how it works with rookies and FF owners with the patience of a ‘what happened yesterday is the future forever’. Take advantage of these nonsensical owners always trying to jump off last week’s bad/disappointment-- because Kincaid looks fantastic. He is a magical unicorn, but we don’t know when he’ll grow his wings and fly...but when he does -- wow.
4) RB Javonte Williams, DEN
He looks fine to me. He’s getting a good workload and it will grow. Two weeks without a TD or major stat line...so, the sky is falling (for current owners).
He’s probably an RB2-2.5 or worse value now. I think he can be an RB1.5-2.0 in-season as we go. Remember, this is not GET AT ALL COSTS...these are guys we’re casting fishing lines in the water on to steal. If the fish don’t bite...move on to another watering hole.
5) WR Jakobi Meyers, LV
It was a hundred years ago/last week that this old, boring WR scored two TDs (almost 3)...so, if you can swipe him from a panicked owner, you would be wise too. I’d want to trade for him as a redraft WR2.5-3.0 but I value him as a PPR WR 1.5-2.0 hope.
6) QB Joe Burrow, CIN
Let’s see what the calf report is this week -- but Burrow’s value is gonna be bad if he is set to play Week 3. A perfect time to try and take advantage of the panicked. You don’t get Burrow to be your primary QB right now, just a cheap pull as your #2 QB who can be your #1 QB or trade chip soon.
You’re making a cheap bet that Burrow swings back around...redraft -- or this is a great Dynasty futuristic move.
RB Alvin Kamara, NO
One more week until a PPR RB1 arrives.
Check your waivers to see if anyone dropped him in 10 team or smaller leagues and AK then drops out of sight on waivers because he has 0.0 projections in a given current week.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC
Has fallen short of a rushing TD by a yard in both of his games this season. Had he cashed them in, both of them, he’d be the #11 PPR RB in FF today.
Likely available as an RB3/possible cut in some redrafts...steal him while they think CEH is still the quasi-starter.
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***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1) RB D’Andre Swift, PHI
If you wanna cash in on that TNF event, go for it...but don’t dump it like a hot potato -- extract the value. Sell him like an RB1. People love Swift AND they saw him on TNF wreck things...that’s good for pumped value.
We don't know what will happen with his usage when Gainwell is back...potentially this week.
2) WR Jordan Addison, MIN
A rookie had a TD in both of his first 2 games! Stop the presses!!
He’s playing about half the snaps as KJO and outside the two long TDs this season where he was left wide open...other than that he hasn’t done much. Not that he’s nothing and won’t develop -- but right now he’s over his skis on redraft value. He’s not the only WR scoring TDs out of the gates, but he’s a rookie so they matter more. Sell as a strong RB2 with upside of a magical future.
3) WR Marquise Brown, ARI
I’m a fan. Marquise looks totally fine/good. I just hate the schedule for the next few weeks -- and if I don’t think I’ll start him for the next few weeks...could I get something good in exchange, coming off a good week for him? I’m not dumping...I’m playing chess. If I could get into Aiyuk using Marquise as some/all the bait...I’d love it!
4) RB Kenneth Walker, SEA
This is purely taking a 2nd-year RB who just had two TDs and flipping him for the RB1 moon. He’s fine but he’s much coveted. Seattle has O-Line issues and Zach Charbonnet waiting in the wings.
5) WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ
Two catches on 8 targets, one of them was a slant that opened up for a somewhat lucky long TD...if it was just a 30-yard strike and tackled, no TD, then this would’ve been a 2-40-0/8 week and mass panic. People love the 2nd-year, highly drafted -- this is a time to try and sell as a hot WR1 still. Not ditching him as a basic WR2...trying to bend someone over and paddle them in a deal for their love of these things.
6) WR Drake London, ATL
Nice Week 2...thus Week 1 is forgotten. I’m not anti-London...just anti-ATL pass game. If you can get WR1 value for London, I’d explore it. Not a must sell if you ‘believe’ but just a chess move gamble ATL will constantly keep him limited.
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***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***
*Total flier/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) WR Robert Woods, HOU
He’s old and boring and 12th in the league among WRs in targets and 11th in catches out of the gates, but Marvin Mims excites some of you much more...
2) TE Cole Turner, WSH
If Logan Thomas is out this week (concussion) then Turner is a quicker/younger version of Thomas who might surprise for a week or two.
3) RB Tyjae Spears, TEN
Getting plenty of snaps but hasn’t had that ‘moment’ yet...it’s coming. A potential usable RB3 depth RB in PPR as-is, but an RB1 threat if Henry goes down.
4) RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR
One of the better-looking backup RBs that I saw from Week 1...or just the most shocking that he changed/upgraded/took good or illegal legal enhancers this offseason and looks like a new man/RB. And he looks like he’ll be used in a 65/35 split with Sanders. Possibly bye week flex viable until Sanders gets hurt.
5) WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG
Here’s a rookie to consider at a low level/cost redraft. A homerun/boom-bust play in a given week because of his long TD ability/speed that he started to show Week 2.
6) RB Ronnie Rivers, LAR
When Cam Akers is dumped, it will be Rivers splitting with Kyren...and thus is a handcuff for Kyren.
7) WR Michael Wilson, ARI
You know I love him. Just noting -- he’s getting better every week. Unusable now and maybe all 2023, but once they get past the next 2-3 weeks schedule nightmare...maybe during bye weeks he’s something to have hope in with deeper leagues.
8) RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL
Week 1 = a ghost. Week 2 = suddenly being tested as that relief #2 back in the passing game. We probably have weeks to go, but Deuce will be a killer RB3/4 PPR back to consider...and the guy who would get a workload upgrade if Pollard goes down. I don’t buy for a minute that Dowdle is ahead of Deuce in any of their minds...especially in Jerry’s, if Pollard went down.
9) RB Kareem Hunt, FA
He’s gotta sign somewhere you’d think but the clock is ticking. Where is he going where you will get an FF impact? How many other opportunities have you passed up on that are reality so that you could hold this pipe dream.
Think of what has to happen from here...he has to have the right/major RB injury hit (hasn’t happened yet)...then he has to be signed in that place where NO other viable RBs exist...then it will take 1-2 weeks to get up to speed...then it has to work where Hunt is then amazing with no challenge on the depth chart. That’s your dream scenario, right?
Likely, he is going to continue to sit out for later season with a contender...or he signs with a team as depth and he’s FF-useless/not the daydream you envisioned. You’re a minimum hold/unusable until at least Week 5, at best(?). Are you willing to hold for the perfect storm landing? Depends on your league/roster situations.
What did you pass on after Week 1 to keep holding this?
But there is some logic to holding a lotto ticket, but it’s getting long in the tooth.
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-- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --
1) RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC
Not even the handcuff for Josh Kelley (if/when Ekeler isn’t there anymore). Elijah Dotson is ahead of him.
2) WR Deonte Harty, BUF
Splitting with Khalil Shakir...Kincaid coming on. Moving on.
3) WR Hunter Renfrow, LV
Couldn’t even see much action with Jakobi Meyers out. Tre Tucker is a better hold...
4) RB Rashaad Penny, PHI
He’s a long way away from being useful in Philly, much less in FF.
5) WR Rondale Moore, ARI
Ertz-Marquise-M.Wilson-Conner...then Rondale...in priority for Josh Dobbs. There’s gotta be better WRs to possess for depth than to dream about this one turning.
Guys like Claypool, etc., that I had on last week’s report I’m not putting on here the following week because it was addressed last week.
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***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--
There is a lack of DST options listed...because there is a lack of DSTs worth anything to look at (less than 50% owned on average).
There’s the obvious DSTs...and then 25+ other random events.
1) Chiefs-DST
In terms of offensive points, KC has allowed 14 and 9 so far this season -- to pretty good offenses. This is a talented, deep defense.
A good schedule ahead is the kicker...
Week 3 v. CHI
Week 4 at NYJ
Week 5 at MIN (not so hot but myabe OK)
Week 6 v. DEN
2) Jags-DST
A mediocre/decent defense and a somewhat hopeful schedule ahead the next two weeks...maybe...this is really weak but there’s not much else out there.
Week 3 v. HOU
Week 4 v. ATL
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-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1) SAF Jason Pinnock, NYG
13 tackles and 3 TFLs Week 2...9.0 tackles per game this season. One of my favorite safeties to watch in the preseason. This dude can play.
2) SAF Julian Love, SEA
13 tackles Week 2...11.0 tackles per game so far this season. He was a nice pickup in free agency for Seattle from NYG.
3) LB Robert Spillane, LV
14 tackles Week 2...averaging 10.5 tackles per game so far this season as the new starting ILB for LV.
4) SAF Dax Hill, CIN
I wasn’t a fan of his college work...as a tackling safety. Liked him more as a cover guy. But he’s winning me over with his NFL tackle ability. 11 tackles Week 2 and is now averaging 8.5 tackles per game this season.
5) LB Nik Bonitto, DEN
It seems like going back to the preseason, when I watch the defense Bonitto is always getting close to the QB. He had 2 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits, and 2 TFLs in Week 2. A deep sleeper to keep an eye on.
Outro for Week 2:
It’s been a great week overall, so let me share something that has made me laugh for two weeks...I don’t know why but watch it to the end. They introduced these guys one-time with no recurrence, but I loved it.
This showed up in my YouTube feed randomly and I watched a lot of SNL over the years, but I never remembered this. Enjoy!: https://youtu.be/AYsBKrGGTPU?si=pUC_exsA7crsT4SM
Good luck tonight!
