National Mock Draft expert Ross Jacobs shares his 5.0 version 1st-Round mock draft -- with 5,000+ words of commentary on his research and sources for each pick PLUS a projected trade by the Titans and Lions...
#1 Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young, Alabama
I think there are a lot of false narratives about what has happened with this pick. The perception of many people was that Carolina traded up with the intention of drafting Stroud and the betting odds shifted to reflect that inside knowledge. Now the media is slowly leaking information, hinting that Bryce is the pick, and from the outside it looks like BS. Why change the pick now?
What I think actually happened is Carolina traded up to #1 with Bryce in mind from the very beginning and the media/market went crazy speculating and drawing conclusions based on a video produced by Josh McCown (the new Carolina QB coach) from before he was hired, and a 10 second video of McCown talking to Stroud at his pro day where he said something like "when you live in Charlotte we'll play a game of basketball." I think we got the order of operations wrong. Young has always been the favorite even going back to last year. Carolina and the rest of the league have been scouting these guys in detail their entire careers. They aren't finding out much new information right now, and thus the draft boards aren't really moving much, especially at the very top. Bryce, rightly or wrongly, has always been QB1 for most teams. It's also impossible for me to dismiss the fact that all the sharpest draft people I follow all think it's Bryce. He's the pick for me unless I hear strong evidence otherwise.
#2 Houston Texans: EDGE Will Anderson, Alabama
And here's where the draft goes off the rails from what everyone has long thought. I've been talking about this possibility from my very first mock earlier this year. It was never a given that Houston would take a QB here. They still might. I acknowledge that and I understand why everyone thinks they should. I agree for what it's worth. But I don't think Nick Caserio agrees…and Nick Caserio is the one making the pick.
So, what's the logic? Contrary to popular belief, I believe many teams think there is a decent gap between Young and Stroud and then an even larger gap between those two and Levis/Richardson. I believe there are two defensive players that are widely considered to be "can't miss" Pro Bowl caliber players at the top of the draft. I believe Caserio is an incredibly conservative, overly confident type of person and he is going to stick to his board come hell or high water. He won't "reach" for a QB if he thinks one isn't worth it. He and DeMeco Ryans are going to take one of Anderson or Wilson and wait to see what happens at QB. If they can get one at 12 or by trading up a little, they will. If they like a guy in the middle rounds they'll take him. But they won't force it.
So why Anderson over Wilson even though Wilson theoretically fits their defense better? Because Anderson grades out with impeccable character and leadership traits on top of being a very solid and productive player. He's a defensive captain/heart of the defense type guy and Houston hasn't had someone like that since Watt left. I know that sounds a little goofy to our ears, but that's actually how these NFL offices think. They aren't "just adding talent" as they love to say. They are "building a team." Especially among the ex-Patriots guys. You can expect similar moves from the Raiders as well.
#3 Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Not a trade?! But Stroud is still on the board! We've been told teams were trying to trade up to 3 for Richardson so surely, they'll trade up for Stroud!
Possibly. But as I've pointed out for months now...who are these teams, and do they really love Stroud enough to give up multiple first-round picks for him? I think multiple teams would come up for Bryce, but Stroud I'm not so sure anymore. He's routinely rated as the 5-8th best player by many "experts"...not so often the 2nd or 3rd best. I also don't believe that the teams everyone claims are so desperate for QBs actually crave one that badly.
The Raiders know they have a ton of holes to fill. The Lions are ready to contend and aren't likely to waste time trying to replace the very capable Jared Goff. The Falcons are ready to give Ridder a shot behind a dominant running game. The Titans would probably like one the most, but they don't have the resources to mortgage their future with so many other problems. Everyone else is much too far away to trade up this high. As for proof that the QBs aren't rated as highly as we've all been led to believe...don't you think someone would have already traded for the 3rd pick like SF did if that were true? They knew they were highly coveted and had to move up to secure one quickly. There's been no mad rush to do that this year...it must be for a reason. It's also why Indy has never once budged despite everyone insisting they had to. I think Ballard knows perfectly well that he can sit right there at #4 and wait on one, possibly even the 2nd best.
So, there's nobody that wants to give up the amount of resources Arizona is asking for. Indy calls their bluff that "six other teams have called about the 3rd pick" (which is probably true but only on the off-chance Bryce were to fall...it's due diligence). What does Arizona do? They take the next best defender in the eyes of most of the league. Tyree fits perfectly with what Jonathan Gannon wants to do on defense. I know they would love to trade down and grab one of the corners, but assuming that doesn't happen they'll be perfectly happy with this outcome.
#4 Indianapolis Colts: QB CJ Stroud, Ohio St
And despite all the chatter, Ballard doesn't move a muscle and still gets arguably the best QB in the draft with the fourth pick. I've talked enough about why I think this is a completely reasonable conclusion to draw so I won't expand on it here. If Stroud does happen to go with the 2nd or 3rd pick I believe Indy would select Levis and not Richardson. Levis is ready to play now. Richardson, for all his gifts, isn't there yet. He's not as big a project as many claim, but some seasoning would help.
#5 Seattle Seahawks: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
Go ahead and keep mocking Carter here...you will be wrong. Everyone loves to say that Seattle has no problem taking chances on guys with character issues in the past. That's true. What is also true is that they aren't doing that any longer because of how it blew up in their faces so many times. Go look at last year's draft. Every pick was a guy with outstanding character, very professional types that just want to work hard. Schneider and Carroll have raved about that group and their success last year. They aren't going to throw away what just worked so well to try and fix a lazy, out of shape defensive tackle. They can get guys nearly as good in the 2nd and 3rd round. Carter simply isn't worth the risk.
What is worth the risk is gambling to find the next Josh Allen. It might not work out. But if it does you are set for 10+ years. And Seattle can afford to try a move like this where other teams cannot for a few simple reasons.
1) They have an established head coach and GM that are not at risk of being fired.
2) They have a capable, veteran QB on the team that can pilot them for another year or two until Richardson is ready to go.
3) They have a very QB-friendly scheme (I never believed this until seeing what happened with Russ and Geno but it's clearly true). Seattle is the perfect spot for Richardson. There's not one other team in the league that is set up to handle this project the way Seattle is.
If for some reason Anderson or Tyree is available here, I do believe Seattle would consider taking him and try to trade up for Richardson or Levis later for the same reason that Houston is. I also think they could just choose to take Levis over Richardson if they want a similarly high upside but with less risk. Levis is smart, tough-as-nails, a great leader, big arm, mobile, and came from a similar scheme at Kentucky (his OC Liam Coen was with current Seattle OC Shane Waldron on the Rams from 2018-2020).
#6 Detroit Lions: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
I refuse to move this pick until I hear from a source inside Detroit that they are taking a corner.
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