Andrew DFS is making his debut in the mock draft world…joining our long-time, award-winning mock draft experts Xavier Cromartie and Ross Jacobs.
Here is his take on the 1st-round for 2023 NFL Draft, where his research and sources show the teams going/trending towards (as of 4/9 info he has gathered).
*Assumptions:
-- All teams draft from their current position
-- Position needs from PFF
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1: Carolina Panthers (via CHI): QB C.J. Stroud (Ohio State)
-- Needs: QB, WR, ED
Comments:
Carolina grabs the best QB in this year's draft. There has been some chatter that Carolina may look to trade down if they get comfortable with the other top QB prospects; however, I don't buy that whatsoever. Keep in mind that new head coach Frank Reich is coming from a Colts franchise that's had a "band-aid" QB every season under Reich's tenure. I doubt that Reich will settle for anything less than the best QB in this draft class. Stroud will be the face of the Panthers for years to come and instantly makes Carolina a contender for the division title in the weak NFC South.
2: Houston Texans: QB Bryce Young (Alabama)
-- Needs: QB, WR, C, DL
Comments:
Chances are that GM Nick Caserio had Bryce Young slotted as the #1 QB, especially given his ex-Patriots roots and New England's connection to Alabama. Although I'm not as high on Young as I am on Stroud, his landing spot is not the worst situation in the NFL.
Similar to the NFC South, the AFC South is also a weak division in the NFL. It's hard to argue that these two divisions are not the worst in the league. In addition, Young gets at least 9 games per year in a dome which bodes well for his skill set.
If HOU WR John Metchie III manages to regain his collegiate form, he could make some noise with his former QB. Could this be another Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase situation? Not implying Young/Metchie are anywhere near the stratosphere of Burrow/Chase but perhaps this could be an underrated fantasy/DFS connection in 2023. Couple that with Laremy Tunsil blocking his blindside and Dameon Pierce in the backfield, and the Texans offense wouldn't look as bad as it did last year.
3: Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama)
-- Needs: G, C, DL, CB
Comments:
High probability this pick gets traded since it's a foregone conclusion that Colts will draft a QB with the next selection. If Arizona stands pat, they'll grab the mainstream media's consensus number one defensive player. Jalen Carter was also in this discussion before his legal troubles. Arizona fans better hope that Anderson lives up to his hype as he has the opportunity to become the defensive cornerstone of their franchise.
4: Indianapolis Colts: QB Anthony Richardson (Florida)
-- Needs: QB, WR, TE, OT
Comments:
Colts fans have been patiently waiting for an answer at QB since Andrew Luck abruptly retired. Richardson's athletic abilities blew scouts away at the combine and his Pro Day. If he's developed correctly, Richardon's potential is limitless. He had accuracy issues in college, but keep in mind that his supporting cast in college didn't really do him any favors as the conference he played in (SEC) is littered with NFL players.
Gardner Minshew will likely start the season and he is a fine bridge QB; however, Richardson should find his way on the field towards the end of the year. Similar to Young, Richardson also gets at least 9 games per year in a dome and will also play in a weak division (AFC South).
5: Seattle Seahawks: DL Jalen Carter (Georgia)
-- Needs: G, C, DL
Comments:
Seattle's run defense was horrendous last year. Jalen Carter won't solve that problem on his own; however, the unit will start trending in the right direction. Carter's range of possible outcomes might be just as wide as Anthony Richardson. He could be a perennial Pro Bowler and anchor Seattle's defense or be a complete bust.
6: Detroit Lions: CB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon)
-- Needs: WR, TE, DL
Comments:
Much like Seattle's run defense, Detroit's passing defense was equally horrendous. Gonzalez may end up being the best defensive player in this draft and has been drawing comps to Pat Surtain II. He will have his hands full in his own division as he'll draw matchups against Min WR Justin Jefferson, GB WR Christian Watson, and CHI WR D.J. Moore. Not too worried about the last player, the other two will force Gonzalez to get up to speed quickly though. I think he's up for the task and the Detroit secondary will look a lot different in 2023 with the Gonzalez/Okudah CB tandem and CDJ over the top.
7: Las Vegas Raiders: QB Will Levis (Kentucky)
-- Needs: QB, OT, DL, DB
Comments:
If a team other than Indianapolis trades for the Cardinals third overall pick, there is a good chance that Levis won't fall to the Raiders. Levis had issues staying healthy in college which usually doesn't translate well for the NFL. However, he played in the toughest conference (SEC) with a not-so-great supporting cast.
Levis may be forced into action early as starting Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo has trouble staying healthy throughout an entire season.
8: Atlanta Falcons: OT Peter Skoronski (Northwestern)
-- Needs: QB, WR, ED
Comments:
This was the first offseason where Julio Jones and Matt Ryan were both off the Falcons payroll and the team went on an off-season spending spree. The QB position is still a big question mark, and perhaps they'll make a run for Lamar Jackson after the draft. Skoronski is a perfect fit with the Falcons as he'll slide into the LG position for the first few years and eventually take over for LT Jake Matthews. The Falcons solidify their OL for years to come with this pick, and we know HC Arthur Smith will be licking his chops to run the ball behind an even stronger offensive line than last year.
9: Chicago: OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State)
-- Needs: OT, C, DL, CB
Comments:
This pick is a no-brainer for the Bears as their 2022 OL was horrendous. You can argue that Paris Johnson is a better OT than Skoronski; however, Skoronski seems to have the flexibility to play multiple positions across the OL. QB Justin Fields will be stoked that he'll be protected by his fellow Buckeye alum for years to come.
10: Philadelphia: CB Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State)
-- Needs: WR, G, C, DL, S
Comments:
The Eagles will most likely trade out of this pick if they can't land DT Jalen Carter or OT Peter Skoronski. If they stay in this position, I believe they'll select CB Joey Porter Jr. and have arguably the best CB trio in the league. Top CB Darius Slay is signed for two more years but given his age, his production level should start dipping in the near future.
Similar to RBs, CBs have a low "elite" shelf life relative to other positions; however, unlike RBs, most teams making deep playoff runs need high caliber CB play which is hard to find in later rounds of the draft. All the rules are geared for QBs/WRs to put up big numbers and preserve their longevity. The moment a CB's athleticism tails off, they lose the ability to keep up with the elite WRs.
11: Titans: OT Broderick Jones (Georgia)
-- Needs: WR, OT
Comments:
The Titans released long-time tackle Taylor Lewan this offseason. I suspect that they'll draft Jones to take over Lewan's old spot. They could also go WR with this selection as well.
12: Texans: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
-- Needs: QB, WR, C, DL
Comments:
The Texans' 2023 offense looks a lot different with their first two selections. If this pick pans out, new QB Bryce Young could have three solid WRs (JSN, Metchie, and Collins) along with RB Dameon Pierce who had a promising rookie season.
- Jets: OT Dawand Jones (Ohio State)
-- Needs: WR, OT
Comments:
Four Buckeyes taken in the top 15. Even if the Jets trade for GB QB Aaron Rodgers, they should be able to keep their first-round pick. Although Jones is not as highly touted as other tackles in the draft, he could emerge as the best one from this draft and will be a steal for the Jets.
- Patriots: Edge Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech)
-- Needs: QB, OT, Edge
Comments:
The Patriots pick up Tyree Wilson to help bolster their defensive line. Their pass rush win rate in 2022 was amongst the bottom of the league. They'll need all the pass rush help they can get in a division with Josh Allen and potentially Aaron Rodgers.
- Packers: Edge Lukas Van Ness (Iowa)
-- Needs: QB, OT, Edge
Comments:
Safe to say that the Packers pass rush was average last season. Part of that had to do with Za'Darius Smith's departure; Van Ness will hope to propel this unit to one of the best in the league.
16: Commanders: CB Devon Witherspoon (Illinois)
-- Needs: QB, G, C, LB
Comments:
Washington ends Witherspoon slide as the mainstream media is projecting him as a top 10 pick. The Commanders gave up the tenth most passing touchdowns in 2022; Witherspoon can help this secondary become a solid unit in 2023.
17: Steelers: CB Deonte Banks (Maryland)
-- Needs: OT, LB, CB
Comments:
The Steelers secondary was one of the worst units in the league last year and a frequent target of FF players. Steelers fans will hope that Banks can help this unit get back on track next season.
18: Detroit: TE Dalton Kincaid (Utah)
-- Needs: OT, LB, CB
Comments:
Detroit doesn't have a good track record of selecting tight ends in the first round; Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron and TJ Hockenson all failed to live up to their potential. Fourth time might be a charm here as Kincaid can help take Detroit's offense to another level. Goff might arguably have his best group of pass catchers (even compared to his days in Los Angeles) with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and now Dalton Kincaid. My fear is that Dan Campbell will fall in love with Texas RB Bijan Robinson and potentially miss the opportunity to take Kincaid.
19: Buccaneers: DL Calijah Kancey (Pitt)
-- Needs: QB, TE, OT, DL, S
Comments:
When all is said and done, Kancey might end up being the best DL taken in this draft. Yes, you read that right, better than Jalen Carter. There were already some pre-draft concerns about Carter's abilities before his legal troubles; he most likely won't be able to play all three downs and looked out of shape during his own Pro day. I do think Carter's ceiling is higher than Kancey's but his floor is MUCH lower.
I'm not so sure Kancey falls down to #19 come draft day; however, if he's there Tampa will be jumping out of their seat to draft him. Tampa's defense was marred by injuries last offseason, they should be a decent unit next year. Could this team possibly be the best team that Baker has played on? We can better answer that question after the draft shakes out; certainly seems to be trending that way, especially with this pick.
20: Seahawks: Edge Myles Murphy (Clemson)
-- Needs: G, C, DL
Comments:
If Carter pans out, sticking Murphy on the DL with him will be a lethal combination. These two could lead the way in a revamped Seattle defensive line. I think Murphy ends up having a better career than Tyree Wilson and I wouldn't not be surprised whatsoever if he gets picked higher than #20.
21: Chargers: WR Quentin Johnston (TCU)
-- Needs: WR, LB, CB
Comments:
The Chargers end Johnston's slide at #21 as the mainstream media has him ranked as a top 10 prospect. WR Mike Williams is injury-prone and WR Keenan Allen is falling out of his prime. Johnston will be able to learn from these two veterans and be in a position to take over for one (or both) in the near future.
22: Ravens: WR Zay Flowers (Boston College)
-- Needs: WR, ED, CB
Comments:
The Ravens haven't had a true number one wide receiver since the early 2010s with Anquan Boldin. Newly signed WR Odell Beckham Jr. could fill that void and be a mentor for Flowers and Baltimore's other WRs. The bigger question here is who will be throwing Flowers the ball? If Lamar somehow ends up back in Baltimore, perhaps they'll go for a veteran WR such as DeAndre Hopkins to help bring Flowers along.
23: Vikings: CB Emmanuel Forbes (Mississippi State)
-- Needs: WR, DL, LB, CB
Comments: Despite the Vikings burning their first two picks in last year's draft on the secondary, their pass D was one of the worst (if not the worst) in the league (another frequent target for FF players). They also lost their top CB Patrick Peterson to the Steelers in the offseason. NYG QB Daniel Jones should be sending a thank you note to the Vikings secondary after inking a $40 million AAV contract for the next four years. Daniel Jones had only three games where he threw more than 300 passing yards, two of which were against the Vikings (the other against Detroit). More specifically, 17.4% of Jones' passing yards in 2022 (including the playoffs) came against Minnesota.
24: Jaguars: Edge Nolan Smith (Georgia)
-- Needs: G, C, ED, DB
Comments: The Jaguars exceeded expectations last year and gave the eventual SB champion Chiefs a run for their money in the Divisional Round. Had their defense been stouter, perhaps they could've really taken advantage of a hobbled Mahomes last year. Jaguars make this selection and hope their pair of Georgia defenders (Travon Walker taken first overall last year) bolster their pass rush.
25: Giants: S Brian Branch (Alabama)
-- Needs: WR, C, LB, S
Comments:
The Giants could easily take a WR here. Instead, they'll grab Branch and hope that he can help slowdown the Eagles, Cowboys, and Commanders pass catchers next season.
26: Cowboys: RB Bijan Robinson (Texas)
-- Needs: RB, DL, LB
Comments: Match made in heaven; the Longhorns star RB goes to the Cowboys. Jerry is a businessman first and foremost, and this move will not only cause massive hype/hysteria with the NFL's leading brand but also solidify the RB position for years to come. I don't think Jerry is in any rush to give Pollard a large contract extension after learning his lesson with Elliot.
27: Bills: WR Jordan Addison (USC)
-- Needs: DB
Comments:
Despite everybody's infatuation with WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo clearly needs a second wide receiver option next to Stefon Diggs. They could end up trading for Hopkins but if they don't I believe they take Addison here and hope he can draw attention away from WR Stefon Diggs.
28: Bengals: TE Darnell Washington (Georgia)
-- Needs: TE, DL, DB
Comments:
If the Bengals draft Washington, go load up on Cincinnati futures the next day. Their pass catching group is already elite, having a 6'7" TE with a 4.64 40 time is going to make this unit even more dangerous. He can be what we all wanted TE Jelani Woods to become last year. Unlike Jelani, he'll have a capable HC, elite QB and stud WRs to take away the defense's attention. Defensive coordinators are going to lose sleep trying to figure out how to cover Chase, Higgins and Washington.
29: Saints: DL Bryan Breese (Clemson)
-- Needs: G, C, DL, S
Comments:
Saints had a major exodus on defense due to salary cap issues stemming from the Drew Brees era. Hard to blame them, go all in when you have "the guy" at QB; however, the effects from those years will still be felt for years to come. Saints fans will hope that Breese becomes a building block for their future defensive units.
- Eagles: G Torrence O'Cyrus (Florida)
-- Needs: WR, G, C, DL, S
Comments: O'Cyrus is best the interior OL in this year's draft. He has a good chance to become a first-year starter and protect QB Jalen Hurts.
31: Chiefs: Edge Byron Young (Tennessee)
-- Needs: WR, DL
Comments:
Chiefs continue playing Moneyball as they try to replace Frank Clark's production with Byron Young. If they somehow manage to get Clark back on a reasonable deal, the duo will be fun to watch in 2023; however, I don't think Clark will settle for a team-friendly deal after helping the Chiefs win two Super Bowls.
Last year, the Chiefs invested in the OL as opposed to paying WR Tyreek Hill and that single handedly won them a Super Bowl. They need to draft well and be creative with their cap (hopefully less creative than NO) as Mahomes' cap hits will continue to rise to the mid to high $40 million mark after 2023.
