RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items to start the days with.
1/18 SUN
(7:02amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Final two divisional playoff games today...Sunday joy.
Random Senior Bowl Scouting Previews
Divisional Playoff Game Reports...publish next week.
*We’ll get into Kevin Stefanski and his impact and coaching things again after the playoff games are over and the dust settles/next week.
== SATURDAY GAMES FIRST REACTION ==
BUF-DEN
-- I have no words for the officiating in the OT period in this game.
From the Brandin Cooks catch/ruled INT that stole the game from Buffalo, and forever changed the entire AFC tournament trajectory, to the multiple PIs for Denver’s benefit to set them up for the FG win. Nothing I can do about it. Cost me money on bets. Doesn’t really matter for FF per se.
It did make me swear never to bet on football with any seriousness again.
1) https://x.com/kevinmassare/status/2012715899594174822?s=43
2) https://x.com/davemyersbib/status/2012709155220365717?s=43
3) https://x.com/espn_schick/status/2012694747001847812?s=43
4) https://x.com/yardsperpass/status/2012698828495864098?s=43
5) https://x.com/ghettogronk/status/2012694780313014393?s=43
6) https://x.com/haterreport_/status/2012695044088570209?s=43
-- I thought Josh Allen kinda cost the Bills a win before OT. Some terrible throws in-game...some missed wide open guys he threw to. The dumb fumbles. Yes, he’s a talent...but that was a sloppy performance off-and-on judging on ‘eliteness’. That was not him stepping up to claim his moment. If he had, the OT debacle would never have happened.
Just nitpicking. https://x.com/matt_bove/status/2012729095767904607?s=43
...and also reminding of my current axiom...that the differential of QB play does not matter enough anymore...every QB is varying degrees of ‘good’. Bo Nix and Sam Darnold were winners today. Not Josh Allen and Brock Purdy...the better QBs.
https://x.com/kurtbenkert/status/2012749896403579086?s=43
-- The hidden difference in the game to me? Besides the egregious, fire-able offense way the referees handled this game...was the Broncos being forced to use their best WR, Marvin Mims, due to injury to Pat Bryant. While the Bills got back a real weapon this week, off of IR, arguably their best all-around WR, Curtis Samuel — and the Bills had no plan for him at all. The two of the worst throws of the season by Josh Allen were to Samuel in this game -- (1) Wide open deep, underthrown picked. (2) Wide open on a short pass moving with Allen, and on the move free right in front of Allen and he threw it 3 yards over Samuel’s head.
I won some nice little props on Mims this game...and the profits from that paid for the lost Samuel ones.
Game MVP = Pat Bryant.
-- Bo Nix broke his foot, done for the year. A shocking development. The two Super Bowl teams will not be the two best teams in the NFL…they will be the two teams who survive/avoid key injuries…and avoid horrific officiating.
Jarrett Stidham isn’t the worst backup in the league, but this is quite the moment to step into. https://x.com/polymarketblitz/status/2012738902940160303?s=43
I wouldn’t be surprised if Sam Ehlinger is on high alert this week...and that if Stidham struggles, an in-game move might not be made. Several teams tried to get Ehlinger off the Broncos practice squad later in the season, but Denver kept moving him up to keep him away. https://x.com/rodger/status/2012717248754987149?s=43
This is jarring/eerie when you see it: https://x.com/drjessemorse/status/2012766877873762658?s=43
SF-SEA
-- Another one of my playoff axiom’s: Every game is 50/50 in these playoffs.
But my bad...I left off one zero on one side of the divide for this game. https://x.com/nflmemes/status/2012788465386078508?s=43
Wow, Seattle just spanked the 49ers worse than they did a few weeks ago. Congrats to them. From the moment Rashid Shaheed, the Seahawks Marvin Mims (meaning great player, dangerous return man, really nice WR talent...that they never have a purposeful offensive plan for in any game), took back the opening kick the game felt over at that point...and it was.
-- R.I.P. this current 49ers roster/era. They were one of the best teams of the past 5 years but sadly never won a title. It’s time to undergo a 1-2 years rebuild.
Odds that Kyle Shanahan steps away a la Mike Tomlin...maybe like 5-10%? Just a wild side thought.
https://x.com/grantcohn/status/2012728621945831681?s=43
https://x.com/ajshoophype/status/2012738577910698447?s=43
https://x.com/grantcohn/status/2012702254826951116?s=43
https://x.com/grantcohn/status/2012375645364605005?s=43
-- Another axiom of mine for this playoffs: It’s all about the O-Line. We had the 49ers O-Line graded higher than Seattle, because of the strength/ability of Trent Williams in large part...but Seattle’s O-Line play and grades have been improving in the 2nd-half of the season and perhaps the inflection point hit here where the Seahawks actually have the better O-Line now.
I say that to note...the MVP of this game might be the offensive lineman we were debating as possibly the #1 most valuable player in the 2025 NFL Draft -- Seattle OL Grey Zabel. Right before Seattle took Zabel at #18 in the draft...Cincy took Shemar Stewart (#17). SF took Mykel Williams (#11)...Las Vegas took Ashton Jeanty (#6). I could pick on every draft pick in front of Zabel at #18, really.
Others voted for a different MVP of this game: https://x.com/redditcfb/status/2012725761757843927?s=43
-- I also note that we ‘found’ Grey Zabel beginning at the Senior Bowl. Many others found out about him in Mobile as well...a #75-150 overall projected prospect for various scouting firms pre-Senior Bowl, then we all started to move him up our draft boards after Senior Bowl week...but none moving him with the conviction that we had, no one rating him as highly as we rated him.
Our #1 OL prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft saw four other OLs go ahead of him...and four edge rushers too.
The Senior Bowl matters. Everything matters in the offseason...as we build and study for the upcoming season and future. It’s a slow build work project every month for the next 6 months.
This year, the Senior Bowl previews and post-analysis are having a different flow. And a surge of preview activity will be posting for us pre-Senior Bowl week all this next week leading up to the event.
-- I have critiqued John Harbaugh for not having a current/viable ‘tree’, but I should be slapped in the face for forgetting that Mike Macdonald started as an intern for John Harbaugh 10+ years ago, then became the defensive coordinator for brother Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, then came back to brother John to be D-C for the Ravens 2022-2023. The rest is history.
https://x.com/chasingsnyder/status/2012726936871502195?s=43
https://x.com/paulcharchian/status/2012734375545143390?s=43
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 47 WRs (30 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, DeVonta Smith, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris, Romeo Doubs,
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Rashid Shaheed, Jauan Jennings, Tory Horton, Kyle Williams, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
DK Metcalf, DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Roman Wilson, Jack Bech, Calvin Austin, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Ricky Pearsall (too injured), Quentin Johnston, Mack Hollins, Malik Washington, Darius Slayton, Ryan Flournoy, Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Aiyuk (too ‘nuts’), Kayshon Boutte, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/17 SAT
(6:38amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Playoffs start today.
Game Report...final one for the wild card round (LAC-NE)
FFM News items
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting items I might see.
The FFM Betting Discord chat will be open for Saturday’s (and Sunday’s) games if you want to hang out and bet and whine and mock the weekend’s games with friends!
-- Weather Updates for today/the weekend:
|
Game |
Forecast |
Temp |
Issues |
|
Bills @ Broncos (4:30 PM ET) |
Mostly Sunny / Partly Cloudy |
39°F–44°F |
Low Impact. Temps are mild for Denver in Jan. Winds (8–10 mph) won't hinder Allen or Nix. |
|
49ers @ Seahawks (8:00 PM ET) |
Clear / Pristine |
45°F–49°F |
No Impact. Unusually dry and calm for Seattle this time of year. Winds are negligible (4 mph). |
|
Game |
Forecast |
Temp |
Issues |
|
Texans @ Patriots (3:00 PM ET) |
Cold / Snow Flurries |
33°F (RealFeel 24°F) |
Moderate. 52% chance of snow. Winds are manageable (7–10 mph), but the slick ball and cold favor the home-team veterans. |
|
Rams @ Bears (6:30 PM ET) |
Extreme Cold / High Wind |
10°F–15°F (RealFeel -10°F) |
High Impact. Potential for light snow (47% chance). Winds (10-15 mph sustained, gusts to 20-30 mph) will make kicking and deep passing a little difficult. |
The weather report are getting a bit hysterical for LAR-CHI. It will be really cold but not as windy or gusty as some are salivating over, and the snow is minimal...like basic light flurries and it’s a maybe on that.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- The Sam Darnold injury issue...
OVERVIEW: Sam Darnold is currently dealing with a left oblique injury sustained during practice on Thursday. While he is officially listed as Questionable for today's (Saturday, Jan 17) Divisional Round game against the 49ers, both Darnold and head coach Mike Macdonald expressed extreme confidence that he will start.
INJURY: Darnold "felt a little something" on his left side while throwing during "routes on air" drills on Thursday. He immediately exited practice as a precaution and underwent rehab. On Friday, the team held a light walkthrough; Darnold did not participate in live drills or "real throwing" as the team focused on rest and recovery ahead of kickoff.
SAM DARNOLD QUOTES (1/15): "In routes on air, I just felt a little something in my oblique. I just didn't want to push it. It wasn't the day to push it, so that was it. I came inside, got some rehab, and I feel like I'll be ready to go for Saturday."
"What percent of me believes I may miss the game? Very low percentage. Probably closer to zero. It’s fun. We’ll attack it the next couple of days and be ready to go."
MACDONALD QUOTES (1/16): "Right now, we're going through all the protocol. We're doing that just out of caution to make sure we're ready to go and we'll test it out tomorrow [Saturday] and kind of make the final decision."
"We're really optimistic that he's going to play. He’s confident that he’s going to be able to go do his thing and we are too. But, with these things, something could change... something could happen in-game, so we kind of just have to roll with it."
"I don't think we would put him out there if he couldn't do his job. He's going to be able to go do his job. If he doesn't, or at some point he doesn't, then Drew [Lock] is ready to go."
KUBIAK QUOTES (1/15-16): "With any injury, you just want to know what the significance is... For a quarterback, everything starts with the core. It’s where your torque comes from. We’re monitoring how he’s rotating and making sure he can still make all the throws in the tree without compromising his mechanics."
"Drew [Lock] has been really impressive throughout OTAs and training camp and in his role. We have a lot of confidence in Drew. We brought him here for a reason. He got the reps he needed today [Thursday], and the operation didn't miss a beat. We prepare every week like the backup is one play away, so this doesn't change our Friday process much."
"We’re putting our own system together, but Robert Saleh’s defense [49ers] is going to challenge you regardless of who is under center. We have to be able to execute the base offense. If Sam is limited, we have tools in the bag to adjust, but the goal is to play our game."
Darnold is likely to play...how effective and how great the odds of getting more injured in-game are the real questions that could swing this game to the 49ers, obviously.
-- HEADLINE: Rams RG Kevin Dotson (ankle) was removed from the injury report and will play in Los Angeles’ Divisional Round game against the Bears.
A huge boost for the Rams on what could be a heavy run game day. The Rams get back their best guard...and the Bears will be missing one of theirs (Trapilo).
Like the importance of the health of Lane Johnson v. Trent Williams for the PHI v. SF game last week...this Dotson in, Trapilo out may be the hidden swing in this 50/50 game.
-- HEADLINE: Bills activated DT Ed Oliver (biceps) from injured reserve.
This is a nice boost for Buffalo’s defense at just the right time.
-- HEADLINE: The Athletic’s Mike Silver reports that the Eagles “might draft a quarterback this spring.”
What?
How is it that everyone is trying to get Jalen Hurts gone from Philly all the time...and yet the make excuses after excuse and throw praise all the time for Lamar Jackson? Hurts just won the last Super Bowl and was the MVP!!!
I saw LeSean McCoy say he’s ‘heard’ that Hurts has to have a simple offense and he can’t handle exotic offenses.
Really?
Well, if the ‘simple’ offense gets you a Super Bowl...then KEEP IT SIMPLE (STUPID)! What do you want...something exotic and ‘clever’ like Arthur Smith’s offense? Give me a break.
If the Eagles make a move on Hurts, like Saban did, going with Tua over Hurts (which kicked off the Alabama general downfall)...if they go at the king, they better not miss. Who is more important in Philly -- AJ Brown, Sirianni, or Hurts? We’re about to find out...with the O-C hiring and in the NFL Draft.
Philly could make a move on Hurts in 2027, contractually.
Howie Roseman has made the absolute wrong, stupid choice in QBs before -- when he snubbed another Super Bowl and MVP winner for the supposed ‘better’ QB with his Wentz v. Foles choice.
There would be an absolute feeding frenzy for Hurts.
The ‘knock’ on Hurts -- he’s too focused on his body, becoming elite, and winning...it rubs some players and coaches the wrong way. Kinda like a less goofy Russell Wilson ‘knock’. Yet, they just shrug their shoulders at or cheer on Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray wanting to play video games and not taking studying their game seriously.
-- I was not even aware this happened...watch all the way through for the payoff, if you don’t know this story already: https://x.com/polymarketblitz/status/2012282827421925407?s=43
-- One of the typical ‘tells’ that a head coaching candidate is not a serious HC candidate...is if they are also taking/doing coordinator interviews as well.
If a supposed HC candidate is taking O-C interviews, it’s because they know (him and his agent) they aren’t getting any HC jobs.
I was thinking about this yesterday while driving in the car...
So, I researched last year’s cycle...none of the guys who got hired, from that great 2025 head coaching class, did an offensive coordinator interview at the same time/period. I didn’t research the defensive coordinator interview patterns, because I think they are all terrible HC candidates who most/all are not going to get hired this cycle or any other cycle coming up the next few years. There are now 8 HC openings remaining...I would predict 6-8 of them will be filled by guys with an offensive background. John Harbaugh was an exception on ‘longevity’...and probably a terrible mistake for this era.
So, I just checked to see which HC candidates are also taking O-C interviews...again, a sure sign they are not being taken seriously as HC candidates this cycle.
Here’s the list research...
As of today, January 16, 2026, here are the candidates who have officially interviewed (or are scheduled) for both HC and O-C:
1. Mike McDaniel (Former Dolphins HC)
McDaniel is the biggest name playing both sides of the market right now. After his dismissal from Miami, he is supposedly prioritizing "fit" and the ability to work with a talented roster.
- HC Interviews: He has already completed interviews with the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns. He is scheduled to meet with the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans this weekend.
- OC Interviews: He is in Tampa Bay today (Jan 16) for an in-person interview for their OC vacancy. He also completed a virtual interview with the Detroit Lions earlier this week.
2. Todd Monken (Ravens OC)
He is heavily linked to John Harbaugh's new staff.
- HC Interviews: Completed an interview with the Cleveland Browns on January 10.
- OC Interviews: He completed an interview with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Wednesday (Jan 14). However, with John Harbaugh now officially hired by the New York Giants, reports indicate Monken is the front-runner to be the Giants' OC, though he is still entertaining other offers.
3. Brian Callahan (Former Titans HC)
Callahan is looking for a "reset" after his tenure in Tennessee ended.
- HC Interviews: He has a scheduled interview with the Miami Dolphins for their HC opening.
- OC Interviews: He has been very busy here; he completed a virtual interview with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jan 9) and just completed an in-person interview with the Los Angeles Chargers today (Jan 16) to potentially pair with Jim Harbaugh.
4. Mike Kafka (Former Giants OC / Interim HC)
He is now officially a "free agent" candidate for other teams.
- HC Interviews: He interviewed for the Giants full-time job before they landed Harbaugh.
- OC Interviews: He completed an interview with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on January 13.
I would predict none of these guys will be a head coach, which is an easy prediction looking at the names...except Mike McDaniel people feel like could get an HC job. I don’t think so. Not with his interview pattern...and he knows it.
== HEAD COACHING SEARCH UPDATE/LATEST PREDICTIONS ==
ATL = Klint Kubiak (not likely Stefanski, but maybe...if they wanted Stefanski so bad, it would’ve happened by now...they are waiting for the next wave of coaches to free up to interview after this weekend.)
The problem ATL is running into is...no stable QB situation to attract the hot, young offensive coordinator candidates. They may have to settle for Stefanski in a few weeks because young candidates don’t want to be locked into Penix’s uncertainty on health.
TEN = Grant Udinski (starting to make a move as the most coveted job remaining now that NYG has been filled. If the Titans much this up with a Matt Nagy, I swear...)
LV = Davis Webb
MIA = Jeff Hafley
BAL = Jesse Minter
PIT = Nate Scheelhaase (but I think he will turn this down if he gets any better offer...or just ‘passes’ in general. The Steelers roster is so bad, they will have an extremely hard time filling the job with a real/fresh candidate...this is the most major rebuild situation in the entire league. A several year rebuild runway/excuse, may get a young coach in to want to have the blank canvass to work with.
ARI = Kevin Stefanski (I think he’s a fading candidate, and may find himself with no chair to sit in, in the head coaching game of musical chairs...)
CLE = Dan Pitcher (but they want a guy like Udinski, but he’ll turn them down...he’s too good of a candidate to take this bottom feeder ownership job).
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 44 WRs (29 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, DeVonta Smith, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris, Romeo Doubs,
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Jauan Jennings, Kyle Williams, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
DK Metcalf, DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Roman Wilson, Jack Bech, Calvin Austin, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Ricky Pearsall (too injured), Quentin Johnston, Mack Hollins, Malik Washington, Darius Slayton, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Aiyuk (too ‘nuts’), Kayshon Boutte, Jayden Reed, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/16 FRI
(6:51amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
New Playoff Game Report today
Divisional Playoff Week projections update between 6-9pmET
FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.
Divisional Playoff ATS picks today
Another travel day today...traveling north for a meeting today, then off to my annual 2nd-week-of-the-playoffs actual watching and betting football weekend vacation ‘boy’s weekend’...also an eating festival. Then the long journey home Monday for a normal work week. Working on football all the in-between points. Normal reports and things on FFM all weekend.
== NEWS & NOTES ==
-- So, it looks like the Giants are going to acquiesce to John Harbaugh’s demands...when it looks like they are negotiating against fear/themselves, because no other team seems that interested (to give Harbaugh everything+).
We can’t make any full and/or FF judgements about this until we see the Harbaugh staff, but this very second...Harbaugh + his tired staff (maybe Monken?) = I have to take down my expectations and enthusiasm for NYG things.
My first overall early gut reaction to this hiring, whether Harbaugh is a good or mediocre coach or not, is that I think he is the absolute wrong guy/personality for this particular Giants team. That young, rowdy, energetic group doesn’t need an old school coach with an out of touch taskmaster staff that will be coaching it. They need a disciplined genius with a youthful spirit -- they need the next Ben Johnson with this wonderful upside, young offensive roster.
But when you are a pathetic negotiator like GM Joe Schoen, you chase what the media says is a great candidate and you give him all the power...so that the media and fans will pat you on the head for such a mature signing...and thus hopefully forgets, for a bit, what an absolute idiot you looked like on the HBO documentary 2 years ago.
This is gonna be a bad situation eventually. Harbaugh has no ‘tree’...and that’s a major red flag. Ten+ years ago, ‘great hire’...in 2026, with this rowdy randy new era youthful group -- it’s gonna be a combustible situation of a ‘stepdad’ coming in who has just robbed a bank and is gonna let his assistants do the heavy lifting while he sits backs and lights cigar with hundred-dollar bills (type of mindset) and barks out orders but self-commits to not taking as much time on the job. It doesn’t matter...he’s not built for the era. Doesn’t mean he’s a dope or that they can’t win 7-10 games and stumble into the playoffs in the next year or two...just NYG hasn’t found their McVay-Shanahan-Ben Johnson. Most have not.
The staff says everything here...and Harbaugh doesn’t have a ‘coaching tree’ he groomed or found or attracted (a big red flag), so if he just goes with Todd Monken (and I don’t think he will) -- this is a pending disaster possibility. And I would NOT rule out that he hires Arthur Smith instead (or some other veteran, dull, non-new era O-C), which is differently awful/bad than Monken.
But let’s see...maybe he spends his giant budget on a real, new age O-C and a brilliant Harbs just needed to be let out of his cage to make magic. I’ll wait to critique or applaud this regime change until it’s official/the main staff is filled.
-- Ben Johnson probably should’ve given a warmer handshake last week...
https://x.com/mlfootball/status/2011622384940593376?s=43
-- BUF at DEN betting note: https://x.com/killersportscom/status/2011880835083899202?s=43
-- The two coaches taking the most bullets in satire land...
1) Arthur Smith being interviewed for the Arizona HC job and the Lions O-C job...
REALITY: https://x.com/joeorrico/status/2011839379988189185?s=43
BEST X of 2026: https://x.com/sleeperhq/status/2011898754681749666?s=43
FACTS: https://x.com/acosta32_jp/status/2011489570487935227?s=43
The NFC West: https://x.com/theogfantasy/status/2011544769261195493?s=43
Escalated fast: https://x.com/theffrealist/status/2011796640600912155?s=43
AND
2) John Harbaugh to NYG...
Jaxson outlook?: https://x.com/barryonhere/status/2011855481027866889?s=43
NYG fans not excited: https://x.com/ghettogronk/status/2011913605470384634?s=43
Monken to NYG? https://x.com/polymarketblitz/status/2011835949723070470?s=43
Not happening but funny: https://x.com/koestreicher34/status/2011785998120677880?s=43
-- A great summary/outlook of all these Head Coach openings...
https://x.com/andrewsiciliano/status/2011515943340687554?s=43
Late add to the coaching situations...
https://x.com/nflfrascella/status/2011059506080280952?s=43
-- Weather Report for the weekend
|
Game |
Forecast |
Temp |
Issues |
|
Bills @ Broncos (4:30 PM ET) |
Clear / Partly Cloudy |
35°F–39°F |
Minimal. Light winds (5–8 mph) and clear skies make this a "clean" game for Denver in January. |
|
49ers @ Seahawks (8:00 PM ET) |
Clear / Cool |
37°F–45°F |
Minimal. No rain is expected at Lumen Field. The only factor is the typical damp Pacific Northwest chill with very light winds. |
|
Game |
Forecast |
Temp |
Issues |
|
Texans @ Patriots (3:00 PM ET) |
Snow Possible |
34°F (dropping) |
Moderate. There is a 26–29% chance of snow in Foxborough. While winds are light (5–6 mph), the cold and potential moisture favor the Patriots' experience over the indoor Texans. |
|
Rams @ Bears (6:30 PM ET) |
Frigid / High Wind |
8°F–19°F |
Significant. This is the "weather game" of the week. RealFeel temps are expected to be near -7°F. Wind gusts up to 21–30 mph will blow sideline-to-sideline at Soldier Field. |
https://x.com/nfl_convo/status/2011857383996412101?s=43
-- Let’s end on something that warms my heart, I think...maybe: https://x.com/jasrifootball/status/2011235052538249386?s=43
-- Final Note...
Driving back home from Jacksonville, I listened to various YouTube things. First was my favorite Stock Market livestream show. Once that was over, I was looking for an engaging podcast for the final 2-3 hours...and ‘boom’ this (below) popped up #1 on my ‘recommended’ feed.
‘Diary of a CEO’ is a great podcast in general, I hope you are familiar with it -- but it doesn't really matter if not...he’s just a good/interesting interviewer or question asker, but his superpower is that he gets some very interesting and great guests. This latest episode that just dropped, his guest was Tony Robbins.
I’ve not been through any Tony Robbins programs or anything in my life, but I wouldn’t rule it out...but I have read a couple of his books in the past few years, and they are excellent books (to me). But whether you know him deep...or just know of him or have little-to-no idea who he is -- this was a great sit down to learn about Robbins’ life and background and all the things that he has done and is doing.
Honestly, not giving it a ton of thought...but reading his books and listening to him get interviewed over the years and then this interview -- Tony Robbins may be one of the greatest human beings to walk the face of the earth in this generation. It’s interesting to learn his ‘origin story’ here, and what power people he has worked with, and what he’s doing to give back and improve people’s lives...you’ll be stunned by some of the things he is currently doing.
Or at least I think you might enjoy this (and enjoy it quite a bit, and perhaps draw some inspiration and/or personal reflection from it). I sent it to my kids to hopefully be able to listen to it and really hear it/focus...I had to go back a few times and rewind because I drift into some football thoughts while driving while listening, which happens a lot. Anyway, here’s some good content to consume if you’d like to...
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/I_w81rptxkc?si=14oCbS4M6jPdZH0F
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 43 WRs (28 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, DeVonta Smith, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris, Romeo Doubs,
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Kyle Williams, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
DK Metcalf, DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Roman Wilson, Calvin Austin, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Quentin Johnston, Mack Hollins, Malik Washington, Darius Slayton, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Kayshon Boutte, Jayden Reed, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/15 THU
(6:58amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
New Game Reports today
Divisional Playoff Week projections update between 6-9pmET
FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.
Travel day back home from Jacksonville.
== HEAD COACHING SEARCH UPDATE/LATEST PREDICTIONS ==
Job openings listed/ranked by ‘most attractive’ to coaching candidates...and my current ‘dart throw’ prediction at who is getting those jobs. I’m going off discussions that I’ve had with sources, but they are doing a lot of guessing as well.
*Wrote the little blurb about NYG around 10pmET last night. Went to bed soon after and work up to the news that John Harbaugh is about to land the NYG job. I’ll break all that Dynasty impact down when it’s official AND when he announces his O-C. Anyone going deep on Harbaugh + Dart, etc., it’s neat but premature until you know what he’s doing at O-C.
NYG = John Harbaugh...a long-term mistake but could be OK/good year one. This is the job coaches want when they consider the talent of the existing roster.
You can tell how serious NYG is about Harbaugh by the absolute jokes they’ve interviewed otherwise (Antonio Peirce and Mike Kafka).
ATL = Klint Kubiak
TEN = Grant Udinski
LV = Davis Webb
MIA = Jeff Hafley
BAL = Jesse Minter
PIT = Nate Scheelhaase (but I think he will turn this down if he gets any better offer)
ARI = Kevin Stefanski
CLE = Dan Pitcher (but they want Udinski, but he’ll turn them down...he’s too good of a candidate to take this bottom feeder ownership job).
I am surprised Declan Doyle is nowhere to be found as a rumor anywhere.
GEMINI Report on HC interviews and scheduled/requested ones...
|
Team |
Completed Interviews (Date) |
Confirmed Scheduled / Requested |
|
Tennessee Titans |
Matt Nagy (Jan 8), Steve Spagnuolo (Jan 8), Jason Garrett (Jan 9), Kevin Stefanski (Jan 10), Vance Joseph (Jan 11), Jesse Minter (Jan 13), Jeff Hafley (Jan 13), Mike McDaniel (Jan 14) |
Brian Daboll (Fri 1/16), Mike McCarthy (Sat 1/17), Jonathan Gannon (Sun 1/18), Robert Saleh (Sun 1/18), Arthur Smith (TBD) |
|
Pittsburgh Steelers |
None (Search committee just formed) |
Chris Shula (Requested), Nate Scheelhaase (Requested), Brian Flores (Requested), Jesse Minter (Requested), Anthony Weaver (Requested) |
|
New York Giants |
Antonio Pierce (Jan 12), Mike Kafka (Jan 13), John Harbaugh (Jan 14) |
Kevin Stefanski, Vance Joseph, Klint Kubiak |
|
Baltimore Ravens |
Brian Flores (Jan 13), Jim Schwartz (Jan 14), Jesse Minter (Jan 14) |
Mike McDaniel, Kevin Stefanski, Todd Monken, Klint Kubiak |
|
Miami Dolphins |
Jeff Hafley (Jan 12), Klint Kubiak (Jan 13), Kevin Stefanski (Jan 14) |
Chris Shula, Joe Brady, Robert Saleh |
|
Las Vegas Raiders |
Vance Joseph (Jan 10), Klint Kubiak (Jan 11), Matt Nagy (Jan 12), Kevin Stefanski (Jan 13), Davis Webb (Jan 14) |
Jesse Minter, Nate Scheelhaase |
|
Cleveland Browns |
Aden Durde (Jan 10), Mike McDaniel (Jan 11), Todd Monken (Jan 12), Dan Pitcher (Jan 13), Tommy Rees (Jan 14), Grant Udinski (Jan14) |
Jim Schwartz, Jesse Minter |
|
Atlanta Falcons |
Aden Durde (Jan 10), John Harbaugh (Jan 11), Klint Kubiak (Jan 12), Mike McDaniel (Jan 12), Kevin Stefanski (Jan 13) |
Antonio Pierce (Jan 14) |
|
Arizona Cardinals |
Matt Nagy (Jan 11), Vance Joseph (Jan 12) |
Raheem Morris, Robert Saleh, Klint Kubiak |
== Jacksonville Medical Update ==
Passed all my tests yesterday with flying colors. Got scanned/internally mapped for the upcoming radiation treatments.
It will be somewhere between 32-40 treatments...every weekday, no missed days, weekends off to recover/digest/radiation doctors aren’t working on the weekends.
I was warned by every person, different specialist that I spoke to about ’what will likely happen’ to me week by week. In general, it will start out fine/easy, and then slowly start to take a toll on my body and then really ramp up to a crescendo of side effects near the end.
The two side effects I was most warned of -- that they almost guarantee will hit hard for a 2–3-week period and then slowly subside away were/are: (1) Fatigue. (2) All kinds of bathroom function issues as the radiation blasts are going around blasting away at cancer cells but will hit/irritate all the plumbing around my affected areas as well. The final 2-3 weeks are gonna ‘suck’...radiation is gonna be like this: https://youtu.be/OHG-onVsEcQ?si=HhJ_G0OFxXGOVSj2
I think/hope I’m Rocky in this instance?
I asked the radiologist what the goal was for him in this case...is it just more body blows to the cancer and pray that the cancer is set back even more and keep doing hormone therapy for months/years and checking to see that I keep the cancer in a dead state/at bay for the next 2-5-10+ years? Or is this radiation program attempting to blast it away for good? He’s going for the ‘for good’ shot. This is the moment I either get mostly cancer free but still have to fight it...or this is the moment I ‘go for the win’...a total defeat, ring the ball, cancer free in the near future.
It’s a big two months coming up in about 2 weeks.
The radiologist is literally going for this: https://youtu.be/MSIDI9JwPI4?si=QSUm7zJJdPRwH3d-
== News & Notes ==
-- So, in Minnesota...
Brian Flores is interviewing around for the same job title (D-C) he has now (and some token HC interviews)?
Mike Pettine, the very quietly good assistant coach just (legit) retired. This is a bad loss for any franchise/Minn.
And KOC was having a media Q&A where he basically was ‘folding’ on JJM.
KOC is about to clean house...it will be critical to see how well (or not) he backfills/rebuilds all this.
What KOC needs most? A new GM...(check out my Vikings notes on the special FFM news items from yesterday)
https://x.com/underdog/status/2011189008924025088?s=43
-- Some people are starting to get RC ‘NFL woke’...
https://x.com/kurtbenkert/status/2011245094587056529?s=43
They have only a minimal inkling of how radically everything is changing/has changed.
-- Conflicting betting/pick data on LAR at CHI:
https://x.com/seahawknerd/status/2011158194190762125?s=43
https://x.com/lockandcash/status/2011216537827389513?s=43
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 42 WRs (27 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, DeVonta Smith, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Quentin Johnston, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, Darius Slayton, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Kayshon Boutte, Malik Washington, Jayden Reed, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/14 WED
(5:55amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Next Game Report
Divisional Playoff Week projections update 6-8pmET approx.
Streaming news items throughout the day, more afternoon-night for me this day.
Any new betting action.
== JACKSONVILLE TESTING ==
Big doctor’s appointment day today. Three different appointments, checkups and internal mapping/scan to prep for upcoming radiation treatments in like 2 weeks.
This day starts early...heading to the hospital around 645amET to make sure I get there without traffic issues...I’m bringing my football work to have in the car while I wait for the hospital to even open. Then the whirlwind begins at 8amET and goes til about noon. I’ll be back to work for the rest of the afternoon/night.
I couldn’t sleep last night...feel asleep at 10pm, workup at 1am...so I just worked on things from 1-3:30amET. Going go early and get some coffee...
I do get to meet up with a source/friend of mine on the Jags for dinner tonight, however. So looking forward to that...and hopefully a few things he’ll allow me to share.
== NEWS & NOTES ==
-- I was a little surprised Mike Tomlin got fired. He didn’t step away or resign, I don’t believe/per se...I think they were gonna pull the trigger and he either got ahead of it, or more likely (my opinion) The Rooney’s are very nice people, and they let him resign to save face for everyone...including Rooney most of all.
There is no way Art Rooney would be seen to have fired a long-time successful minority coach, my opinion. Art Rooney is the architect of the nice thought/terribly executed/totally unhelpful to what it was meant to be ‘Rooney Rule’, so he has put himself in a box. The media will lose its mind if Rooney does not hire a minority candidate to replace Tomlin, I believe.
Most of the minority coaches on the circuit are current defensive coordinators and previously failed head coaches. It will be interesting to see where Rooney goes for the new hire...and the one ‘young up-and-comer’ minority candidate, Nate Scheelhaase (LAR pass game coordinator) would likely pass on taking the job if it came down to his only offer. Scheelhaase doesn’t need to grab at any ol’ situation...especially he doesn’t need to reach to join the disaster offensive roster in Pittsburgh.
Only the Cleveland job is less roster and geographically attractive to real head coach candidates. It says something that the three jobs no one really wants, among hot candidates with options, are the three AFC North ones.
Brian Flores, Vance Joseph, Raheem Morris, and Robert Saleh are probably leading minority candidate contenders for Rooney. I think Panthers D-C Ejiro Evero might be the shock hire here.
The Steelers have an offensive roster under contract for 2026 that only a defensive coordinator could love...
-- Side note...there’s a lot of talk about Arthur Smith staying with Pittsburgh, and the Steelers making a big play for Tyler Allgeier in free agency to reunite them.
I don’t think Smith will be there much longer, but that’s just a guess. The new coach will want something else at O-C most likely.
-- I was more shocked to see LAC O-C Greg Roman get fired. The long-time Jim Harbaugh coach just cold-blooded got fired by his ‘friend’. The Harbaugh’s are secretly the worst, but good coaches. It will probably take a few more years for LAC and whatever John’s new team is to figure that out/have them wear out their welcome.
The Chargers offense was great when they had their main O-Line intact...and that’s even with them losing their top OL (Slater) before the season began. All that, and they were humming on offense...until Joe Alt got hurt. And Omarion Hampton getting hurt didn’t help. And Justin Herbert getting hurt didn’t help. All that legit explanation/excuse...and yet they canned Roman.
I could see if Roman was a holdover, or a ‘shot’ that Harbaugh took in 2024 and he never did like a guy he never worked with prior...but Roman was Harbaugh’s O-C for six of his 9 NFL head coaching seasons. LAC has had back-to-back 11-win seasons with Harbaugh-Roman, but Roman gets the axe? Cold blooded Harbaugh.
All those college scandals for Harbaugh...and the weird ending of his 49ers term where everyone hated him. It looks like trouble is slowly brewing in L.A. again.
-- I just realized seven out of the 8 divisions have at least one head coaching opening. Only the NFC North does not.
Mike Tomlin getting dumped now makes 9 head coaching openings. Wow. But that’s not a record high in the past decade/the past 5 years even.
GEMINI report...
|
Cycle |
Openings |
Key Context |
|
2026 |
9 |
Current cycle; unusually high turnover with many veteran firings. |
|
2025 |
7 |
Included the high-profile hire of Ben Johnson (Bears). |
|
2024 |
8 |
Major names moved, including Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh. |
|
2023 |
5 |
A "slower" year with high-profile moves like Sean Payton to Denver. |
|
2022 |
10 |
One of the highest churn years in modern history. |
|
2021 |
7 |
Notable for the Urban Meyer and Nick Sirianni hires. |
|
2020 |
5 |
A relatively stable year; Mike McCarthy returned via Dallas. |
|
2019 |
8 |
The year of the "McVay Effect" (Kliff Kingsbury, Zac Taylor). |
|
2018 |
7 |
Included Jon Gruden’s return to the Raiders. |
|
2017 |
6 |
Highlighted by the hiring of Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. |
-- Early morning news...
https://x.com/espnnfl/status/2011185504515952955?s=43
-- HEADLINE: Kevin O'Connell announced that former Browns head coach and current assistant head coach in Minnesota Mike Pettine is retiring.
I just wanted to point this out...Pettine was a really good coach/football guy. He got screwed by the Browns in his one head coaching stint (they drafted him an unwanted Johnny Manziel for his year two and it blew everything up). He was a great hire by the Vikings. This is a hit to Minny.
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 40 WRs (25 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore,
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, Quentin Johnston, Darius Slayton, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Kayshon Boutte, Malik Washington, Jayden Reed, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/13 TUE
(6:46amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Divisional Round Player Projections tonightET.
Game Report today.
News & Notes as I get them.
== JACKSONVILLE TRIP TODAY ==
Headed to Jacksonville for doctor appointments, and Wednesday they are mapping my insides to get ready for my radiation program. Robot assisted radiation. For the love of Elon Musk...please let me get a good robot a couple of weeks from now.
So, I will be traveling today and getting to the hotel in the late afternoon. I’ll start posting the day’s material mostly in the 2nd-half of the day.
== MONDAY NIGHT PLAYOFF GAME FIRST REACTION ==
-- The one team in this year’s playoffs with a difference-making defense...used their defense to beat down the home team/higher seed and Houston moves on to face the Patriots (who probably has the second best D as long as Christian Gonzalez is OK).
Any one of the Final Four AFC teams could get to the Super Bowl...and that was my thesis when there were all 7 teams still in play/to start this journey, with the Steelers being the weakest case.
Our Divisional round game projections will be out later in the week. I got all 3 AFC wild card winners picked correctly, and then did have Buffalo defeating Denver and New England defeating Houston as predictions for the next round, but will things have changed after watching them work the first round and with the injury reports? We shall see.
-- Was that Aaron Rodgers’ last game in the NFL? Maybe.
If teams are still willing to throw $20M+ at him, he might be back. Why not? If you think, ‘What does he have to prove?” You coulda said that for the past 2-3-4 years...and he keeps coming back.
Maybe Las Vegas/Brady is interested? And maybe Rodgers will be interested in that.
-- Did we see Mike Tomlin’s last game as head coach of Pittsburgh? Maybe.
Now’s the time to do it, if you’re Steelers management and hoping/looking for a change...in a cycle with CLE and BAL turning over their coaches in the division. I’d say it’s 60% likely he is back in Pittsburgh next year.
Why I lean ‘he returns’? Too many job openings...too many established candidates are former coaches in their division. But I would assume if the Steelers want to make a change, they would hire a young coach to rebuild everything...and they need a HUGE rebuild.
-- If Mike Tomlin goes, the only player on the Steelers who had carries or targets in this game who would for sure be back for 2026 might be...
DK Metcalf
...and that’s it.
Gainwell, Austin are free agents.
Warren and Freiermuth could be cut/moved in a rebuild to save CAP space. Jonnu Smith definitely will be cut...unless Art Smith takes over as Head Coach (but the chances of that are 0%). MVS will be gone on his own merits.
Rodgers, Thielen retire.
This roster may be so bad they have to keep Tomlin...he’s the only one willing/forced to coach it.
-- The last few games that C.J. Stroud has lost Nico Collins this season...he did NOT turn to either of the Iowa State rookie WRs (Higgins and Noel). They feel like very talented WRs who are in bad situations/going to waste for FF-purposes in 2026.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- Just a quick note on John Harbaugh’s coaching interviews, etc.
I’m getting the feeling that teams are not incredibly high on Harbaugh as it is, but whatever interest they had -- they are getting turned off by his ‘high’ demands for pay and staffing budget, etc.
Don’t be surprised if the ‘favorites’ for Harbaugh start filling the job with not-Harbaugh, and he starts to become the target for the lower tier option teams/owners that might acquiesce to his demands...like Cleveland...maybe Arizona.
Harbaugh should have executed on a job already, to be announced today, to get in ahead of any Tomlin or Matt LaFleur fears of disrupting his market. If there is no Harbaugh announcement today, then he didn’t lock anything in with any team before the playoff games happened and thus the Harbaugh market might be a little fake.
Every team has to interview or talk to Harbaugh (and at a minimum feign interest/say how good the talks were) or their media/fanbase will cry out ‘we didn’t even talk to Harbaugh’.
If the Harbaugh announcement isn’t today, then Harbaugh is seriously overplaying his hand. If the market was hot, he should’ve been smart enough to grab a job and get it before a Tomlin or LaFleur or McDermott, etc., hit the market. The longer this goes on...the more fake the Harbaugh heat is...or he overplayed his hand.
-- Yesterday, I heard/watched a TV report from an ‘insider’ on how the Ravens job is in such high demand and is ‘the top job’ for coaching candidates.
I don’t think so.
My sources are saying legit coach candidates are turned off by how the Ravens handled the Harbaugh situation and no one really wants to go team up with or manage Lamar (except the media, who thinks Lamar is a deity). The only coaches interested will be grifter retreads like Mike McCarthy or young guys desperate for a big paycheck/a too-early-shot. Baltimore may wind up as desperate as Cleveland trying to find a new coach.
-- AJ Brown’s Sunday...
https://x.com/oursf49ers/status/2010735929934389345?s=43
More AJB hits: https://x.com/nflmemes/status/2010892937413165456?s=43
-- An Eagles coordinator in demand? https://x.com/barkleysburner_/status/2010568377484607774?s=43
-- Cold blooded...
https://x.com/vbsofficial_/status/2010714178521014576?s=43
-- Like I was saying yesterday about the Bills...
https://x.com/aaronquinn716/status/2010686384118337594?s=43
-- Chargers protection issues...
https://x.com/harbaughsbolts/status/2010584666521452787?s=43
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 39 WRs (24 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, Quentin Johnston, Darius Slayton, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Kayshon Boutte, Malik Washington, Jayden Reed, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/12 MON
(7:52amET)
-- Today's Agenda...
Game reports from the playoffs will post daily all week, all complete before the next round starts. Ross is doing the NFC, and I am reporting the AFC (but watching/studying all the games).
FFM news stream page as we get good/interesting intel.
Jeremiyah Love Full Scouting Report 1.0 later today.
== SUNDAY GAMES FIRST REACTIONS ==
BUF-JAX
-- I think Sean McDermott’s job was on the line here, especially if that go-for-TD-quickly call with a minute left would’ve ultimately backfired on him. But Trevor made a bad decision on the first pass of the last gasp drive, the pass got tipped up and turned into a pick...and ball game.
-- Best non-QB on the field this day...the Jags' best WR Parker Washington (7-107-1/12). Four games in a row of Michael Wilson-esque outputs. He has arrived. He is the JAX #1...but a lot of mouths to feed at WR to figure out how to project him in 2026.
-- Jakobi Meyers...1 catch for 12 yards on 4 targets. Jakobi had 2-3 hot games first coming over to JAX, and Parker Washington was hurt some of that time, then the Jags panicked/lusted and gave Meyers a bunch of money based off 3 good games and then he just fell off the face of the earth and Parker Washington became a star.
I have no idea what the Jags are doing managing that team, when I sit back and look at their entire season of moves (we’ll discuss on my game report this week). However, it worked well enough to win the division. I’ll get into more of it on the game report this week.
-- Buffalo is headed to Denver...I don’t think the Bills are that rattled about that. But Buffalo as a -1.5 favorite out of the gates? I don’t know about that. But it is too close to call...we’ll analyze that later in the week.
-- Are the Jags gonna be the favorites in the AFC South for 2026...or 3rd? Where will Houston and Indy be projected...will the public take them lightly? Jacksonville will have a first-place finish schedule for more headwinds.
JAX has NE + DEN + CHI on the schedule for 2026 with their 1st-place finish..
Indy, who was crushing until Dan Jones got hurt/lost, will have a 3rd-place schedule. MIA + KC + MIN
SF-PHI
-- I annoyingly said, all week, that this game was all about Lane Johnson’s health vs. Trent Williams’s health. And when it looked like Lane Johnson was more ‘fine’ and Trent was more ‘questionable’, midweek/Friday, I picked the Eagles to win.
About 10+/- minutes before it became official on Sunday, one of our FFM Discord watchers posted early info on Lane Johnson concerns he was gonna be OUT. At the same time, reports started hitting that Trent Williams was gonna play for sure.
Having to act fast, I placed a bet on the 49ers +5.5. I put my money where my mouth was on these two OL’s impact to the game. And that got me to (4-0) ATS, at this point of the weekend, picking/betting all the games.
The fact that the line/point spread never really moved on the Lane Johnson/Trent Williams reality -- more evidence the football world does not get my new world order of football thinking. We’re trying to make a profit with football information...and thus we are playing against the ‘asleep at the switch’ experts and the Hivemind public that follows them and that holds on to the old axioms about football.
EVERYTHING.
IS.
CHANGING.
It’s happening NOW. It’s been happening for about 3 months or so. Yes, the entire football world changed in three months. Most people will reject that claim. That’s fine. I am playing this football life (FF, betting) against you...and those of us ‘waking up’ to the new reality -- we need people not seeing this...if everyone sees it/believes it, then there would be no opportunity to profit. I/we need deniers...mainstream followers...holders on to the past.
If Lane Johnson were fully healthy...Eagles probably win...the Philly O-C is still employed.
-- I think this loss sets in motion the Eagles ‘folding’ on this current core group. They deserved a chance to defend their crown. They looked wobbly all season, for a ‘top team’.
The first big moves... I think Nick Sirianni keeps his job, and it’s never in doubt. But A.J. Brown is totally done in Philly. *The O-C got fired like 8 seconds after the game ended, so you know Sirianni is safe...he is doing what the owner and GM are demanding he do.
They will send AJB to the highest bidder. And if the offers are close, they will send him to NFL Siberia to spit in his face sent out the door by sending him to like the Jets or Cleveland (if they show interest).
-- The top 5 landing spots for AJ Brown, according to me...
1) PIT...if Tomlin and crew stay employed. An Ole Miss reunion of AJB and DKM in Pittsburgh.
2) NE...where he definitely would want to go.
3) LV...a ton of CAP room and a great need.
4) NYJ...because they are crazy, and this would be crazy of them.
5) NO...maybe Kellen Moore makes a super-compelling offer and thinks he knows how to deal with him after working with him in Philly.
-- George Kittle is done for the season (achilles)...and probably is in danger of not being back to start 2026. Jake Tonges now matters...this week and in 2026.
-- A reason why not (for me) to put a lot of time/effort into scouting a bunch of interior linebacker prospects...the 49ers are down to like their 5th-string group due to mass injury, and in the playoffs they had to run with Garret Wallow (11 tackles, 1 PD) and Eric Kendricks (10 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) here...and it was one of their best LB play games of the season since Fred Warner went down. They kept Saquon fairly well contained as well as Hurts not really running on them.
I’ve always been a Wallow fan, nice to see him get some love/opportunity here.
-- Jauan Jennings catches in games the past 3 CRUCIAL SF games: 2-4-1. All games under 50 yards. I’m not sure what happened...Ricky Pearsall has been out. Out of nowhere Demarcus Robinson had a huge game here. Quinyon Mitchell on JJ probably had a bunch to do with it this game.
This offseason, the 49ers need to draw up an entirely new WR group. The WR free agents are not even close in talent compared to the RB FA pool. Assuming Dallas doesn’t let George Pickens get to free agency. It will need to be trades and/or draft more likely than free agency.
LAC-NE
-- Well, now make it (5-0) ATS for the weekend. Another game you could purely pick with the O-Line comparison. In some ways, this was the easiest pick of the week. My mind just wouldn’t let me bet it because even I am subject to emotions...and still want to hold onto the past too. I just picked NE, didn’t bet it for real.
I so wanted Justin Herbert to put on a Superman cape and go win this game. But what hit him is what hit him ever since Joe Alt went down...11 QB hits, 6 sacks on Herbert in this game. You just can’t beat good teams (or bad teams) with that happening every week.
When Joe Alt played 40% of more of the snaps in games this season, LAC went (5-0). Without Alt at 40%+ (one game at 15%, the rest he was out)...they were (6-7)...losers of their last 3 games (including playoffs). The best team in the NFL in 2025...the uncrowned champions of the 2025 season -- the Chargers if they never lost Rashawn Slater or Joe Alt.
-- Making matters worse for LAC, Omarion Hampton got one carry for -1 yards total this game. He was active but apparently not ‘right’.
-- This takes nothing away from the Patriots, the best team in the AFC. But that only means they are a coin flip favorite/underdog in each game from here. Whatever the final four in the AFC ends up (after MNF) -- every one of them can win the AFC, especially if Houston wins tonight.
-- The Patriots won with the same pattern they always do...the future of NFL offenses -- good QB play (and every team has a good QB), veteran RB leads the way in a duo backfield, and the pass targets are spread all over the place.
-- Ladd McConkey’s total catches in games, the past 5 games: 1-2-4-1-3. That gives me pause on everything LAC in the season to come. You cannot possess Ladd and have those catch counts/lower target levels. Either Herbert is a fool...or Greg Roman/Harbaugh are. McConkey is literally open every play because he’s the best/sharpest route runner ability in the history of the game. LAC was desperate for offense for weeks with O-Line issues...so, Ladd should’ve had 10-15 targets in every game the past month+. But he didn’t...not even close.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
*Some random Xs of interest or comedy to share.
-- Let’s go Steelers!?!?
https://x.com/theponiexpress/status/2010185233069682950?s=43
-- Only 9 times in 50 seasons?
https://x.com/evanhabrams/status/2010152381518852305?s=43
-- The improbability of the Bears comeback...
https://x.com/betweenthenums/status/2010209445998158159?s=43
-- Ben Johnson helping the Bears comeback...
https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/2010172538417275259?s=43
-- The remarkableness of the 2025 Bears...
https://x.com/doug_clawson/status/2010229089379201379?s=43
-- Matt LaFleur is not immune...
https://x.com/thebrohioan/status/2010234657766580505?s=43
-- Dak Prescott is not immune...
https://x.com/haterreport_/status/2010209465992401246?s=43
-- Romeo Doubs did his part to help...
https://x.com/betmgm/status/2010175466674737600?s=43
-- FACTS? It made me do a double take...
https://x.com/TPPSkol/status/2010212554656887093
-- I was kinda thinking the same thing about the Panthers, but I don’t think they’ll be a bottom 5 team...
https://x.com/fammirantetfj/status/2010114897393398199?s=43
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 37 WRs (23 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Parker Washington, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, Quentin Johnston, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Kayshon Boutte, Malik Washington, Jayden Reed, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
