2022-23 Wild Card: Bills 34, Dolphins 31 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
Let’s say this out loud or out loud in our heads (if you’re at work), because it’s really stunning what happened here…
The Miami Dolphins flopped into the playoffs as the last wild card, and through no fault of their own their starting QB was out hurt for their playoff game…and their #2 QB was out hurt as well. Miami would start a 7th-round rookie, 3rd-string QB for this game…oh, and with his star left tackle was either gonna be out or playing hurt (and Armstead did play).
AND… This 3rd-string QB-led his Florida/warm weather team on a trip to cold Buffalo, in front of a raucous Bills Mafia crowd, as two TD underdogs…and Miami lost by just 3 points…and had a chance to tie/win it with 4+ minutes remaining. Oh, and Miami’s WRs dropped about 100+ yards worth of passes in the game that could’ve totally changed the tide…oh, and the RB (Mostert) who wrecked Buffalo a few weeks prior…he was out hurt too.
You want to go, “Good job, Miami! You’ll get them next year…maybe!”
What I want to say is: How bad/awful are the Buffalo Bills (in the context of top playoff teams)? Buffalo had beyond every advantage in this game, and they raced out to a 17-0 early into the 2nd-quarter. And, yet, Miami actually tied it up right before halftime…then Miami took their first lead a minute into the 3rd-quarter. Eventually, Buffalo regained the lead and went up by two scores, but Miami chopped that lead back down to 3 points with 11 minutes remaining -- and in those 11 minutes, neither team scored, and Buffalo limped away with a win. An ugly, sloppy win for Buffalo…a gritty underdog performance for Miami, that they could’ve won a couple of times.
Since their bye week (7), Buffalo is (4-7) against the spread. (8-2) in win-loss record…but (4-7) ATS. Buffalo is overhyped…just like Kansas City. That doesn’t mean they can’t beat top teams any given week and go to the Super Bowl…it just means the public is way too hot on ‘the QB’ and the public are getting punished (betting wise) every week on them just about. The three most popular NFL QBs (Mahomes, Brady, Allen) have a dreadful ATS record the 2nd-half of the season…or all season, really.
It could’ve been worse for Buffalo -- had the Damar Hamlin game never had the Hamlin incident…the Bengals were gonna smoke the favored Bills. You could see it in the time of play we all saw in that shortened game that doesn’t exist. Everyone is going to focus on the Cincy O-Line this upcoming week, and rightfully so, but is anyone really considering what just happened with Buffalo in this game?
What team would you pick at a neutral site -- the Skylar-led Miami team from this game or the Burrow-led, hurt O-Line Bengals team now…if they faced off tonight? If the Bengals, then they should stand a pretty chance against Buffalo this week, if Miami Skylar-edition almost beat them…no?
I have no idea what’s gonna happen with Miami this offseason, as far as coaching and QB, from here. They may replace Mike McDaniel, but he doesn’t deserve it. They may add Tom Brady and trade Tua, which I get -- they need to trade Tua before investing in a mega-deal with him with his injury concerns. I have no idea what will happen. It’s mostly up to Brady, and up to his good friend/Michigan backer, Miami owner Steven Ross.
Brady may retire and that keeps McDaniel and Tua around for 2023. It’s all a guessing game with Brady with the steering wheel.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Skylar Thompson’s (18-45 for 220 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) stat line doesn’t look so good here, but I’d say he lost approx. 4-6 completions through drops/tough catches not completed for 100+ yards easy. Jaylen Waddle (3-44-0/7) had his hands on 3 passes for 80-100 yards left on the field…Waddle didn’t have a catch until like late 3rd-quarter or into the 4th-quarter. Tyreek Hill (7-69-0/15) dropped a couple gimmes too.
If the WRs could’ve come down with a couple of those the whole game might have shifted, as might have Skylar’s confidence early on. It was some egregious drops, mixed with great/lucky swatting of the ball as it was snatched by the Bills defenders, and it was cold.
Skylar is set to be Miami’s #2 in 2023, I would suspect…another year under his belt and one Tua injury away from inheriting the Miami offense for FF. He’s getting to be a more FF-valuable backup QB by the day…even if Tom Brady waltzes in there, it means Tua is out/gone, and Skylar likely stays as the apprentice for the new QB, who could potentially be a new partial owner/QB Mr. Brady.
-- Raheem Mostert (DNP) was great against Buffalo a few weeks ago. Jeff Wilson (10-23-1, 1-13-0/4) here, not so much. Wilson looked slow and definitely ineffective, but he still may not be 100% healthy.
If Mike McDaniel is back there’s a good chance (free agent) Jeff Wilson is too…but they will likely draft a future RB to come in as well. McDaniel and Wilson have a connection, so don’t discount Wilson for early season 2023 in Dynasty.
The lead RB in Miami is to be FF-desired WITH that WR group striking fear into defenses and IF Tua or better is at QB.
-- Another sub-60% completion percentage game for Josh Allen (23-39 for 352 yards, 3 TD/2 INTs)…and another 2 pick game -- Allen has thrown 2 interceptions in a game in six of 17 games played this season.
Everyone keeps harping on Allen’s turnovers with the blame going to Brian Daboll being gone. Maybe, but not so fast…
63.3% Comp. Pct., 267.7 pass yds per gm, 35 TDs/14 INTs, 96.6 Pass Rtg., 71.5 QBR = Allen 2022
63.3% Comp. Pct., 259.2 pass yds per gm, 36 TDs/15 INTs, 92.2 Pass Rtg., 60.7 QBR = Allen 2021
Allen, statistically, was as-good or better in 2022 than he was in 2021.
FFM 2023 Subscription information: 2023 FFM Subscription info
-- This was supposed to be my big Dawson Knox (3-20-1/5) prop bet cash in day…it wasn’t. The MIA +11 early bet paid for the Knox losses. Not sure why Buffalo didn’t attack Miami’s TE weakness like they did a few weeks back, and as most every team has done to Miami.
Hey, Gabe Davis (6-113-1/9) decided to work this week…that may be a reason why Knox was down.
Khalil Shakir (3-51-0/5) had a bigger presence this week too, but that was with Isaiah McKenzie out. Had a long shot prop on Shakir for an anytime TD +700…and he had one shot at it, but Allen didn’t connect. Why Shakir hasn’t been developed more for this playoff time is beyond me.
-- I have said and continue to say…the Bills’ staff lack of developing their rookies is going to bite them against the top teams down the stretch. James Cook (12-39-1, 0-0-0/0) not having any pass targets in this game…or less than 5 targets in any game, is offensive malpractice…and should be grounds to fire that O-C.
-- A look ahead factoid…
Buffalo landed 4 sacks and a whopping 14 QB hits and still didn’t totally rattle a 7th-round rookie QB, and the Bills still almost lost this game.
If you’re worried about Burrow taking too many hits with his O-Line issues this week -- I’d have more confidence in Cincy/Burrow taking on 4 sacks and 13 QB hits than Miami/Skylar. Hell, 4 sacks and 13 QB hits was a good day in last season’s playoffs for Burrow…and he still went to the Super Bowl, and had it stolen from him late by the refs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Singletary
28 = J Cook
59 = Diggs
56 = Davis
31 = Beasley
30 = Shakir
21 = Brown
38 = J Wilson
35 = Ahmed
