2022-23 Wild Card: Giants 31, Vikings 24 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
An entertaining back-and-forth game. A game that the Giants felt in control of all along but…it's the NFL…no lead is safe, no game is really ever in control. Minnesota tied it up 24-24 with 12+ minutes remaining, and the Giants answered right back with a 14-play, 5-minute TD drive to take back the lead. NYG's defense stopped two subsequent Vikings drive attempts and the G-Men pulled off the upset.
The Giants go on to face the Eagles in round two, and the Giants are on a roll…playing better and better as the season goes. Early in the 2022 season, the Giants were gritty and a little lucky winning games. Now, they're playing legit football with a terrific advantage at the line of scrimmage with an emerging O-Line and D-Line. The Eagles are in for a fight. The Computer's pick/my pick (straight up and ATS) in that game will be out on our Friday night video show at 10pmET and my All Picks report and playoff game preview report will release early Saturday. Subscribers can see my early/developing picks/leans on betting these games through my live stream daily notes.
Minnesota goes from flirting with a #1 seed down to #3 seed to upset and bounced 1st-round. They were not playing good football at all down the stretch, and it finally caught up to them.
The Vikings are at a crossroads for 2023. Should they try to improve the foundation/base and try and make a run in 2023…or is it time to just throw in the towel on this mediocre, aging base and do a quick rebuild/upgrade attempt? I'm not sure which way they'll go. They have a smart GM and promising head coach -- either path they could make work.
It will be odd to see the early 2023 season divisional predictions, etc., after the Super Bowl…and seeing Detroit, not Minnesota or Green Bay, will be the consensus favorite in for the division.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Daniel Jones (24-35 for 301 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 17-78-0) keeps playing better and better football. He's not dynamic, he's just playing good/'winning' football -- cut way down on turnovers and is using his best gift, running the ball, to put NYG in position to win games.
Kudos to Brian Daboll…I was wrong about predicting him/his coaching prowess in the preseason. Josh Allen has tailed off some at the same time without him.
We've seen a ton of quarterbacks rise up in 2022…rise from the depths, like Jones, like Geno Smith. It's getting easier and easier to succeed in the NFL at QB. All the rules favor the QB…it's becoming a glorified 7-on-7 drill anymore with teams falling down by 4-5 scores in the 1st-half and then racing back to win in the 2nd-half. If you have a non-restricting head coach/offense and a good+ O-Line, these well-trained-their-whole-life QBs can succeed in the NFL. Not be elite over time…just no longer obvious struggles/embarrassments.
Should Daniel Jones be the QB of the future for NYG? Probably…short term, at a minimum. If I were their GM, I'd either franchise tag or sign Jones to a moderate 2–3-year deal where I could slip out of year three easily if needed…and then I'd draft another QB in 2023 to possibly takeover for Jones in 2024. In this era with all the QB talent and favorable circumstances for the QBs in the NFL -- more and more teams will have two legit QBs on their roster.
Jones has earned the right to return in 2023, but his total career says it's a shorter leash trust/return.
-- Is Kirk Cousins (31-39 for 273 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) coming back? Yes, he is. His contract will force a return. 2024 is likely the move away from Minnesota.
Who's better than Cousins, that's available, in 2023? And then…who's gonna deal for Cousins with his major 2023 payment due? Cousins will likely be there for 2023.
Likely, Minnesota takes a shot on a QB in the draft and sees if it hits for the future, but if not they'll try again in 2024.
Justin Jefferson's Dynasty value into the future hangs in the balance.
FFM Subscription information: Subscription info
-- Justin Jefferson (7-47-0/9) had a quiet game. Adam Thielen (3-50-0/4) had a 2022 Adam Thielen snooze. K.J. Osborn (2-20-1/3) was meh. The WR trio didn't have a huge game. Two reasons why…
1) T.J. Hockenson (10-129-0/11) was the main plan because it's NYG's soft spot in pass coverage…the TE.
2) Maybe more impactful…Adoree Jackson (7 tackles) was back for the first time in 8 weeks, and he's a very good NFL corner and a huge boost from what NYG was doing prior.
It's possible we'll see the same version of this with NYG v. PHI…a big Dallas Goedert event with a slightly underwhelming A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith output.
-- I know I probably say this every week now, but how in the hell did Buffalo never push Isaiah Hodgins (8-105-1/9)? They kept him on-and-off the roster/practice squad for a few years and then just let NYG steal him in-season. And they went with Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie instead? Yuck. Was their an admin error in which Isaiah to start/keep/pay?
Well…Hodgins has a TD in five of his last 6 games and is over 85+ yards in two of his last 3 games…granted those two were against Minnesota and their bottom of the barrel pass defense.
Hodgins has been a great surprise this season, and Richie James (4-31-0/6) has stepped up as well. James was becoming a go-to for Jones more and more down the stretch but had a dud here. James had his chances…dropped a big opportunity pass in this one, which caused me to flush all my prop bets down the toilet on him.
James has hope for a bounce back against Philly if Avonte Maddox is still out.
Hodgins will be a starter again next season, but James likely won't…Wan'Dale Robinson will come and take his slot role back.
Snap Counts of Interest:
66 = Hodgins
65 = Slayton
43 = Richie James
05 = Marcus Johnson
04 = Golladay
