2022-23 Wild Card: Bengals 24, Ravens 17 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
This is the one bet/pick ATS that I lost this wild card weekend, as my terrific win-rate analyzing games for bettors in the 2022 season is now carrying over into the postseason. And, technically, I won this one personally, to go (6-0) this weekend…because I jumped on the -5.5 initial line from DraftKings.
If you've been following along since the 2021 season or 2022 season or since last month or this past week, you know I believe that the Cincinnati Bengals are the best team in football, in my analysis…the uncrowned/stolen crown Super Bowl champs last season.
The Bengals are now one step closer to claiming their referee-stolen trophy from last season. However, it looks like their rocket ship ride back to the Super Bowl is running out of fuel. The end of the Bengals title run in 2022-23 appears nigh.
In game, the Bengals lost starting left tackle Jonah Williams to a kneecap issue…which was on top of Alex Kappa missing last week's game with injury, which was on top of losing La'El Collins a few weeks ago for the season. Thus, in this game, Burrow took on 4 sacks and 8 QB hits…and he struggled with effectiveness overall, and really started sputtering when Jonah Williams went down/out.
If Cincy is missing 3/5ths of its starting O-Line going to Buffalo this week…I don't know how they survive another round. If anyone can overcome high hit/sack counts in the playoffs, it's already proven Burrow can…but, man, it doesn't look good on paper.
The Bengals are lucky they didn't lose this game. The Bengals started decently…a 9-0 lead after the first play of the 2nd-quarter. It wasn't pretty but Cincy looked like they were on their way. And then Baltimore got inspired and took a 10-9 lead into halftime.
Cincy took the lead back 17-10 with 5+ minutes left in the 3rd-quarter…and then the Ravens hit a long TD pass to tie the game back up going into the 4th-quarter. The Bengals really were off/weak the 2nd-half…the Ravens starting to 'feel it' and began taking control with Tyler Huntley playing his best game of the season. Huntley was about to punch in a goal line QB sneak turned QB leap and extend, and then a (betting, for me) miracle happened…the ball got punched out short of the goal line by inches and the football just happened to land in Sam Hubbard's hands with no one around, hardly anyone aware of what happened…and he took off for a 98-yard fumble return TD, totally flipping the momentum and the Bengals held off the Ravens late drive down to the red zone and won the game. Survived it more than won it.
Had Huntley extended the ball for the score on that crucial play…I think the Bengals would have been upset and sent home with a shocking playoff loss. Instead, they luckily dodge the bullet.
As much as I want to 'will' my Super Bowl pick (Cincy) to the promised land -- I do not know how, with all their injuries, they can get past both Buffalo and KC (likely) to return to the big game. If they do, they might get Williams and Kappa back, healthy, and be in better shape -- but the next week or two, the Bengals have their backs against a wall.
Last season, Cincy rode into the playoffs white hot, and then almost lost to Las Vegas in the opening round…scuffling all game. Then, after the Las Vegas scare, the Bengals played toe-to-toe with the #1 seed Titans and snuck out with a win, despite Burrow getting sacked 9 times. Then the Bengals handled KC for the second time in a matter of weeks to launch to the Super Bowl. I don't want to bet against Cincinnati, but this team did not look good all game here…and for the second week in a row. Maybe the Ravens just have their number? Maybe the O-Line injuries have crossed over the 'bridge too far' line.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Tyler Huntley (17-29 for 226 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 9-54-0) played his best game of this season here…but that's not a super-compliment because Huntley has been mostly junk in his 2022 run (was much better in 2021).
The Ravens finally pushed Huntley on more on-purpose runs this game, which was a needed new wrinkle…but they didn't do it enough, and they waited until after like the 1st-quarter to give it a whirl. A nifty, new run-purposed plan with Huntley could've really changed this game…but as we saw all playoff weekend -- NFL teams are gonna be NFL teams, especially the playoff teams (apparently) who think they are geniuses because they made the playoffs, so no sense in changing things now. One of the reasons I am so hot analyzing/picking games ATS right now -- I am playing the teams to be who they are (in my eyes/scouting/data analysis), and never to change…and they oblige. When I try and get cute with a cheap prop flier that I hope their team/coaches get smart and throw playoff curveballs out there with them, but that happen 0.0% of the time…I lost most all the cute prop bet alternative (big) yardage counts or long shot TD anytime plays this weekend.
The big QB news postgame for Baltimore was not Tyler Huntley, but it was close with that ill-fated goal line leap…the big news involves Lamar Jackson.
My read on the Lamar situation is: Take the current happenings at face value. Lamar took longer with an MCL sprain than most all players do coming back, and then never did come back. To make matters worse, Lamar didn't travel with the team to attend the Cincy playoff game. Lamar is playing hardball with the Ravens.
I think if the Ravens weren't just shining on Lamar before, feigning extension interest but secretly wanting out/a change off Lamar, then they are likely 'out' on Lamar now. Lamar wouldn't do a deal before last season or this season, then (possibly) milked an injury, and then slapped the organization in the face further by not even showing up to the playoff game to support his teammates. John Harbaugh won't/can't stand for it. The trust has to be broken between QB and HC.
Kyler Murray used, and now Lamar Jackson is using a 'scorched earth' plan to get themselves into a big contract extension, which is smart really. If you look at how in demand Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson were, Lamar likely thinks he can top that…and the only way to top it is get to the open market…and the only way to get to the open market is to be harsh/burn bridges with your current employer.
You don't see Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen having to go through this song-and-dance. Only the organizations that probably know it's a deal with the devil on Kyler or Lamar is where you see the cat-and-mouse, silly negotiating tactics stuff. I think Arizona had real fears, justified, about Kyler -- but they caved. Cleveland (and all teams) should have run from Deshaun, instead the Browns jumped into the mud with both feet. Lamar needs to get to the open market (Baltimore trading his rights) to have that same treatment. The hostile contract talks are a sign, to me, of a QB not in a good place with the coaches/organization and the fear is real that they will tail off/not work as hard once they are paid -- they are telling you who they are with these drastic actions, but the NFL teams will usually not listen…but will rather cave to the media pressure. All Lamar needs is 2-3 teams to get the vapors on him and he can relocate out of Baltimore's geography, head south or to a dome stadium team, and be higher paid than if he took a hometown deal.
I think the Ravens have let Lamar be 'the bad guy' in this pretty well, and now they have some momentum to trade him (Lamar's actions the past few weeks are turning off the fanbase). This will be the big story of the offseason because the media thinks Lamar is a top five QB, because he has some cool running plays from a few years ago, but in reality Lamar is a bottom 10-15 starting QB in the league…one who wants to be paid with the highest of them all.
There WILL be a sucker NFL team for Lamar…there always is. My early guess: New Orleans or Atlanta, but the Jets could buy him if they offer a Deshaun-Browns ridiculous deal.
Baltimore will opt to find a veteran QB for 2023…while drafting one for the future, to replace Lamar. I think Harbaugh wants to work with a traditional, experienced QB.
-- J.K. Dobbins (13-62-0, 4-43-1/5) would have his FF value increased once Lamar is gone. Dobbins would be the center of the Ravens offense. Lamar would no longer take some of the yards/scores away. And finally, Dobbins would likely see targeting increases to work better in PPR (Lamar barely ever throws RBs the ball).
One more year past his knee problems will help as well.
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-- Will Mark Andrews (5-73-0/10) suffer without Lamar? I don't think so. Andrews had big games with Lamar in 2021 and 2022, then big games with Huntley filling in games in 2021 but not so great with Huntley 2022, and then Andrews had a big output/target game with Anthony Brown Week 17 (9-100-0/10).
Andrews had 5 TDs in the first six games of 2022 season…and was the #2 FF TE through Week 6 with Andrews and Kelce WAY ahead of the pack. Then Andrews got hurt in Week 7 and tried to play Week 8 and then missed a few weeks to recover and came back Week 11, but it was a different Andrews…no TDs the rest of the season (since Week 7/his last 10 games).
Andrews tailed off with Lamar and without Lamar after Week 6. Was it Andrews' injury? Possibly…it makes some simple sense. Andrews has always been better/more productive in his career than his Weeks 7-19 fade in 2022. The fade creates a buy-low opportunity in Dynasty going into the offseason...I'm seeing people land Andrews reasonably, almost by accident in the past week. He's cooling, and his 2022 owners have had to live through his 10 games slide to 'human', so they've seen a different Andrews. And they fear a future without Lamar…but I am fine/I like Andrews without Lamar, in general.
Andrews' 2022 season:
Weeks 1-6: the #2 PPG PPR TE in FF (4/2 with four 20+ PPR point games)
Weeks 7-17: the #13 PPG PPR TE in FF (1/8 to the finish…this is what current owners are selling off)
I don't think Andrews just forgot how to play/be a star. His injury and the QB changes had to have pressured this downfall. You have to think he gets back normal, a strong top 3 FF TE, in 2023.
-- Joe Burrow (23-32 for 209 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 5-9-1) had this third low output game against Baltimore of the season. 217-215-209 yards passing, 3 TDs/1 INT total against them in three games in 2022 season. I guess they do 'have his number'.
Burrow has been under 240 yards passing in four of his last 5 games but has 11 TDs/4 INTs and a rushing TD in that span to offset his FF numbers.
In the 2022-23 season, when he was sacked 4 or more times, Burrow has posted a (1-3) record with 6 TDs/5 INTs…and really he should've lost this game to be (0-4) in these games. In all his other games (3 or fewer sacks), Burrow posted a (12-1) record with 30 TDs/7 INTs.
Will Cincinnati PLEASE draft some offensive line talent/depth this year!?!?! EVERYTHING is about Burrow…so why are you not over-investing in keeping him safe? If the Bengals ever get a high-end O-Line, Burrow will mow through the NFL/FF potentially setting records for things in a season.
-- Is Tee Higgins (4-37-0/6) playing through an injury, and if so…do his declining numbers to finish the 2022 season create a buying opportunity for a (assumed) healthy 2023 season?
In his last 6 games, Higgins has been under 40 yards receiving five times (one game he was active but was held out with the injury).
Does he also have some post-Damar Hamlin hit issues? His two games since the Hamlin game…5 catches on 13 targets for 44 yards total.
All we can do is speculate, but his general Dynasty value is slipping a little for owners who got burned by Tee's finishing run at the end of the 2022 season.
-- Remember that game where Joe Mixon (11-39-0, 3-17-0/4) scored 5 TDs…back in Week 9? If you ignore that game, Mixon scored 4 TDs otherwise all season (14 games). Not good for a guy that's the lead back for a top NFL offense.
Mixon's yards per carry in 2022 season: 3.9 ypc
Mixon's yards per carry the past 4 seasons: under 4.0. By season, his last 4 seasons, starting 2019: 4.1, 3.6, 4.1, 3.9.
Mixon is not an elite RB1…he's a solid RB2. Because of his cold finish, and mostly cold 2022 season, Mixon is also going on sale around the Dynasty globe, people trying to cash out/upgrade from Mixon hoping his name value keeps his Dynasty value propped up for a soild sell off.
-- Two IDP notes…
Ravens rookie SAF Kyle Hamilton (9 tackles) is looking better each week, the last 2-3 weeks, to my eye…and I was not a fan of his coming out of Notre Dame. I still think he was overrated, but that aside…he's starting to play less passive and getting in on things as a tackler/hitter more than I saw at Notre Dame his final season.
It may be these early college career media beloved defensive prospects coast/play it safe a bit in their final season before they can get to the NFL/money. Kayvon Thibodeaux may be a poster child for that too.
Bengals 2nd-year OLB Joseph Ossai (1 tackles, 1 PD) is trying to break out as a legit pass rusher. His snap counts are increasing. He's had at least one QB hit in a game in six straight games (7 QB hits, 2.5 sacks). I was a big fan of his coming out of Texas in 2021…he may start living up to my scouting expectations ahead.
