2022-23 Wild Card: Jaguars 31, Chargers 30 (Dynasty/Fantasy Game Report)
My best bet of the wild card week was Jacksonville +2.5. Played it on DraftKings for the straight up money line outright win (+100). It didn't look too good when it was 27-0 Chargers after four Trevor Lawrence picks, obviously.
As the Jaguars were falling down a well, I didn't really blink at it. Rather, I kept saying at my watch party: “All I see anymore in the NFL, especially in recent weeks, is teams getting way down in the 1st-half, looking ridiculous…and then the down team just storms right back into the game in the 2nd-half, as the team in the lead that could do no wrong…suddenly, they can't do anything. This may not be over/a dead bet yet”
I didn't confidently think the Jags would come all the way back, but I did not believe it was over at 27-0 that early/with that much game to go. I've seen this movie way too often in just the last 3-4 weeks alone. It's like an NFL epidemic. Cris Collinsworth was able to make me laugh for the first time with any of his quips, when he sarcastically, but accurately, said (during the CIN-BAL playoff game) about the recent NFL games/the early big deficits and comebacks in games (paraphrasing) -- I don't really start getting interested in these games until it's like 17-0, then I know we're in for a game!
The NFL has achieved a goal that I don't know that they thought they ever really could -- the game is so tipped to favor the quarterback, the passing game AND there is so much QB talent flooding in from college football, talent and training (through QB camps and 7-on-7)…no lead is safe, the game is getting 'easy' for rookies and journeymen and QBs of all shapes and sizes. The difference between the #4 QB in Fantasy, in a given season, and the #15 likely comes down to blocking/O-Line and coaching/O-C plan. Do you see Brock Purdy struggling when thrown into the pool in mid-2022 in an emergency situation? And I am not bemoaning Purdy's talent, he's the best QB from the 2022 NFL Draft…or 2021.
We're entering a world of the passing game and high scoring events (good for TV viewership), the likes of which we have never seen in any era. No lead is safe. How we deal with that for FF going forward is something we'll discuss all offseason in prep for 2023.
Back to this game…
The reason I was so confident in the Jags +2.5/to win was not because I like the Jags or respect Trevor Lawrence as an elite QB, because I don't. I simply bet against the team that constantly shows us they're so poorly run that they are gonna allow opponents opportunities they shouldn't get…and they are gonna confine their own talent and misuse and misfeature things that give opponents an advantage. So, I was not totally giving up on Jacksonville when they were down 27-0…because the Chargers were still the opponent.
It takes a special kinda poor head coaching, and awful staff, to blow a 27-0 lead…just like the 33-0 lead Jeff Saturday and his disastrous regime blew just a few weeks ago. All the cool kids are doing it! But it really takes a special kind of coaching to possess Justin Herbert and have him struggle/be muted on offense and have him regress so much year-over-year.
The Chargers have a gift…Justin Herbert. What should be the one of the 1-2-3 best QBs in the game, a cut above all/an elite, and thus what should be a dominant, title threat team -- this team is nothing like that. And for that reason, I believe it's 50-50 odds the Chargers will make a move and dump Brandon Staley and bring in Sean Payton at all costs and then they have a chance to be that dominant team. Just firing the offensive coordinator won't do it…although he should go immediately, but Payton used to have the O-C on his Saints' staff -- so he might stay with Payton…but Payton would be running the show, offensively.
However, the Chargers are also 'cheap'/one of the least cash-rich teams -- there's a tough business/cash decision on firing Staley and giving him the rest of his contract and then paying an exorbitant deal to Payton and his new all-star staff PLUS trading assets to acquire the rights to even hire Payton. It is possible the Chargers just stand pat and ride it out with Staley but make him dump/change the coordinators -- and then the main problem still remains (Staley).
Jacksonville is experiencing some of the opposite of the Chargers organization -- also a poorly run franchise (terrible owner and his family in mgt. positions and GM Trent Baalke is horrid), but Doug Pederson made a huge impact and has improved/unlocked, somewhat, Trevor Lawrence and got the team playing well, has had a fresh game plan on both sides of the ball, and benefitted from Tennessee experiencing, arguably, the worst set of injuries a team was hit with all year…starting in the preseason and rolling downhill all season. The scheduling luck continued, drawing Staley in the 1st-round.
Jacksonville goes on to face Kansas City in round two…a KC team they got down to big, quickly back in Week 10 -- down 20-0 right before the half, but Jacksonville kept fighting and slowed KC down (or KC slowed itself down, as they do) and the Jags hung around with some chances to make it close but still lost by two scores (27-17). The Jags ride a wave of momentum but it's asking a lot to take down KC, at KC, coming off a bye with Andy Reid's track record off a bye.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Trevor Lawrence's (28-47 for 288 yards, 4 TDs/4 INTs) wild card playoff game was the tipping point of my new working theory of the NFL/FF…quarterbacking is easy in the NFL; anyone (trained for it) can do it.
In a year where Geno Smith became an MVP candidate, Brock Purdy became an instant star, Skylar Thompson nearly won a playoff game on the road, Josh Dobbs nearly won a division late, Cooper Rush was better than Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones was revived, P.J. Walker and Sam Darnold nearly won a division, Baker Mayfield was a star in a game where he had just joined the Rams 48-hours prior, Taylor Heinicke almost got Washington to the playoffs, Jacoby Brissett worked fine enough, David Blough looked promising, and Jarrett Stidham walked in and destroyed the 49ers defense is his debut…why would I be surprised if Trevor Lawrence plays well?
It's not a question of individual 'talent' anymore…there's varying degrees of that to look at, but if you want to know how good a quarterback is going to be -- tell me who his head coach and offensive coordinator are (will they hold the QB back)…and most importantly tell me the talent level and injury status of that QB's offensive line.
It used to be 'QB is the most important thing in the NFL', and there were only a handful of difference making ones to work with. Now, we're entering an era of 'QB inflation' (more starting QB talent than there is starting jobs) and the things surrounding the QBs in the NFL are most important…and every decent QB prospect that walks in from college is more prepared, most practiced from their youth, more schooled, and in better physical condition than their predecessors…AND, most importantly, the NFL rules have been maneuvered to favor QB safety and promotes the passing game. It's never been easier and less life-threatening to be a professional QB. It's nearing a giant 7-on-7 game, only with 11 players on each aside.
The reason why all the Alabama QBs of recent years are superstars in college with eye popping numbers -- they are reasonably talented BUT have the best of all surrounding situations to work within. Brock Purdy at Iowa State is different than Brock Purdy with the Kyle Shanahan/49ers surroundings…versus had Purdy been drafted by the Falcons.
So, was I wrong in my negative Trevor Lawrence scouting -- that he was a bust/disappointment in progress (not generational, a disappointment, a Carson Wentz to come)? Maybe…but what would happen if we swapped Davis Mills (just to name someone from his draft class) and Trevor Lawrence -- where would Trevor be today? How would Mills be thought of today?
We got a whole offseason to unpack it for Dynasty planning and 2023 redraft strategy.
-- I couldn't be happier for Evan Engram (7-93-1/11)…another Doug Pederson 'gets a gold star' move. For 5+ seasons in the NFL, no one used him properly or consistently and he was assumed to be a bust. Midway into the 2022 season, the Jags started getting him the ball more -- and whaddya know? He's awesome and the team starts winning all their games.
Do you think a switch flipped for Engram…or did it just take finally getting the ball and being allowed to make plays? This version of Engram has been there for the taking for the Giants for multiple head coaches and coordinators. Doug Pederson figured out what a kindergartener could've figured out.
Tell me who a tight end's head coach and offensive coordinator, and to a lesser degree his QB, are and I have a better idea of how good they will be in the NFL/FF. Just ask Kyle Pitts.
Evan Engram is a free agent…how good he'll be for FF 2023 depends on where he winds up, or if he stays with the Jags.
When Engram gets six or more catches in a game, the Jaguars are now (5-1).
Engram started as an (0/7) and has been a (6/5) for quality starts this season since -- and has a 42+ point PPR game to his credit back in Week 13.
I'm thankful for hitting the Engram props for yards in this game (37.5) and the alternative special on FD for 60+ yards.
-- And then there's the anti-Engram TE, Gerald Everett (6-109-1/8).
The Chargers have all kinds of weapons on their offense, and they have a mismatch nightmare TE in 6'8” Donald Parham (4-34-0/5). And in this Chargers' staff's most important game of their LAC careers, they got the ball a lot to the very vanilla, mostly NFL disappointing/journeyman-ish Gerald Everett…and somehow figured out how to get their best players, Austin Ekeler (13-35-0, 2-8-0/4) and Keenan Allen (6-61-0/13), the ball less in this major event -- and SURPRISE, the Chargers lost and blew a 27-0 lead in the process.
Donald Parham was so clearly making a difference early in this game. He is a real difference maker as it is. He was really working well early, BUT then I'd see him out of the game more than in, and the topper…the pièce de résistance…he was mostly removed from the game when the offense got into the red zone and in goal-to-go situations.
My Parham enthusiasm changes with what LAC does (or does not do) at head coach and offensive coordinator in 2023. Parham could be a breakout star for FF 2023…or is just Gerald Everett's backup…just depends on who his coaches are in 2023. He's a restricted free agent that maybe the Chargers will mishandle in pre-free agency.
My Parham anytime TD prop bet at +700…was a small donation to DK.
-- Justin Herbert (25-43 for 273 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) goes to prove my 'who is your HC/O-C' narratives. Herbert is 10x more talented than Trevor Lawrence, but he's kept in a box on offense where he has no speed/playmakers at WR, slow/short TE Gerald Everett is a major part of the game plan -- but, regardless of what your eyes see with Herbert -- today, everyone in the world will now be pushed via 'big football' (ESPN, etc.) that Trevor Lawrence is better than Herbert because he beat him in a playoff game…which feeds the 'generational talent' narrative on Lawrence via the mainstream. Herbert is the generational talent…going to waste.
I know it (the Trevor celebration) is coming (from the media) because they want to celebrate their 'win' on Lawrence as 'generational'. I have to let them have their Carson Wentz year two moment. Don't fight city hall…live to fight another day/don't waste time arguing right now.
If Staley returns as head coach, and he retains his horrific O-C…then Lawrence is better than Herbert for FF 2023.
-- Justin Herbert has aging Keenan Allen, always hurt Mike Williams, and generic Gerald Everett and Josh Palmer to work with.
Trevor Lawrence has solid Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, but also has the most unique/dynamic weapon among any player I just mentioned…Evan Engram. BUT also keep in mind, in 2023, Lawrence/Pederson also gets Calvin Ridley (acquired in trade from Atlanta at the deadline).
Lawrence…
Better head coach for offense.
Better, younger, faster weapons at WR and TE.
Everything points to Lawrence > Herbert for 2023.
Lot of time/things to happen between now and free agency, the draft, the 2023 kickoff.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Everett
28 = McKitty
25 = Parham
