RC's Daily Notes 2025: For the Week of 12/8-12/14 (The Week That Was...)

: R.C. Fischer; FreeView; 14 December 2025

RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...

Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.

12/7 SUN

(6:54amET)

-- Today’s Agenda...

Sunday Morning Sit-Start Show 10:30amET-NoonET. Show access will post around 10amET+.

Week 14 final projections update will post around 12:30pmET

-- Early Injury news...

Chris Rodriquez = (groin) Game-time-decision. Will test in pregame. I’d lean he’s more ‘out’ than ‘in’. Could be JCM (+ Jeremy McNichols) in a great matchup!

Josh Jacobs = (knee) multiple reports he is going to play...an early call (happened last night) is positive for him.

Emanuel Wilson = (illness) looks likely to play...Chris Brooks may be more of a backup/cuff today?

Christian McCaffrey = (illness, back) is good to go.

Deebo Samuel = (illness) is good-to-go.

Davante Adams = (hamstring) all seems fine for him.

Nick Chubb = Unlikely to play.

Jake Ferguson = (calf) is likely to play.

Emari Demercado = Will be back for Arizona this week.

Key other ‘out’ for Week 15 declarations...

OL Paris Johnson, ARI = The Cards best OL is out again, as well as three DBs.

CB Kyler Gordon, CHI = Put on IR...CGJ moves to the slot for Chicago.

Browns = At least four OLs out, possible a 5th. Denzel Ward out. CLE has the worst injury situation going into Sunday.

CB Trevon Diggs, DAL = Coach’s decision to sit.

OL Tyler Guyton, DAL = Out again.

CB Sauce Gardner, IND = The Colts have been wrecked with injuries the past week. OL Braden Smith also out.

Chiefs = Three starting OLs out this week.

OT Trey Pipkins, LAC = A war of attrition on the O-Line with LAC v. KC

OL Lane Johnson, PHI and DT Jalen Carter, PHI = Out again is crushing.

CB James Pierre, PIT = Losing him is a big blow. He’s become a starter recently and his grades have been great.

-- NFL Weather issues UPDATE...

A cold week coming...and getting colder

CLE at CHI = 10 +/- degrees (down -5 degrees from last report), feels like -5 +/- degrees. 10mph +/- winds

BAL at CIN = 10 +/- degrees (down 5 degrees from earlier in the week), feels like -5 +/- degrees (a drop of 5 degrees since yesterday). 10mph +/- winds.

LAC at KC = 20 +/- degrees feels like 20 +/- degrees. Not gonna help struggling passing games flourish but not as bad cold as other places.

MIA at PIT = 15 +/- degrees, feels like 0 +/- degrees. MNF...Tua/Miami headed north again. https://x.com/espnnfl/status/1999625081798930907?s=43

WSH at NYG = 30 +/- degrees, feels like 20 +/- degrees. Light snow early morning but not gonna heavily affect the game in any way...maybe just a little wetness on the ball time-to-time.

BUF at NE = 30 +/- degrees, feels like 25 +/- degrees. Light flurries during game.

LV at PHI = 30 +/- degrees, 15-20+ mph winds (wind projections increasing since yesterday), ‘feels like’ 15-20 +/- degrees. Light snow early morning.

(Gemini AI research on weather impact for COLD weather without much else happening)

For "feels like" temperatures between 0°F and 20°F (the range you specified) with low wind and no snow, the data from the last few years indicates that the extreme cold itself primarily causes a change in play-calling strategy and a significant increase in turnovers, while the overall effect on scoring is often minimal.

Here is a breakdown of the impact on key NFL performance areas based on recent data:

Impact of Extreme Cold (0°F to 20°F "Feels Like")

1. Passing Game Performance (Negative Impact)

The passing game is the most affected, though not catastrophically, and largely due to grip and ball security.¹

Statistic	Observed Change	Reason
Completion Percentage	Drops approx 2%	Numb hands/fingers reduce QB grip and receiver dexterity, making a clean catch or a tight spiral harder.
Passing Yards/Game	Drops approx 5%	Coaches become more conservative, leading to a small but noticeable decrease in pass attempts in favor of the run.
Pass Attempt Volume	Drops approx 2%	While the change is small, coaches slightly reduce the overall number of passing plays compared to a non-weather game.
Yards Per Attempt	Drops Slightly	The cold may make deep, finesse throws more difficult for quarterbacks and limit vertical play design.

2. Rushing Game Performance (Slight Positive or Neutral)

The running game generally becomes the offensive focus and may see a small efficiency boost.

Statistic	Observed Change	Reason
Rushing Attempts/Game	Increases	Coaches bias the play-calling toward the run to control the clock and avoid passing mistakes.
Yards Per Carry	Slightly Higher	Some studies show a marginal increase in Yards Per Carry (e.g., +0.26 YPC), suggesting rushing is a slightly more efficient option than passing in the cold. It may be due to tacklers being more tentative or less effective.
Rushing Success Rate	Slightly Higher	Studies have found that the expected rate of positive running plays is marginally improved in the cold.

3. Ball Security & Special Teams (Most Significant Impact)

This is where the cold causes the biggest statistical change, which is often the primary factor that decides low-scoring cold-weather games.

Statistic	Observed Change	Reason
Turnover Rate	Increases approx 40-50%	This is the most significant factor. The football becomes harder and slicker in the cold, and player grip strength is reduced, leading to a much higher rate of fumbles and interceptions.
Field Goal Success	Drops approx 2%	The colder, denser air and stiffer ball affect the kicker's mechanics and the flight of the ball, though the impact is still less than heavy wind.
Punting Distance	Drops approx 3 yards	The change in air density and the punter's ability to cleanly strike the cold ball slightly reduces average distance.

4. Overall Scoring & Team Quality

Total Scoring: Surprisingly, studies that average out cold games often show little to no decrease in average total points scored, or even a slight increase (though this can be due to better teams, who make the playoffs, being disproportionately represented in extreme cold games). The increase in turnovers and subsequent short fields, combined with more clock-draining rushing plays, generally cancel each other out.

Home/Visitor Split: Visiting teams—especially those who play their home games in domes or warm climates—are significantly more vulnerable and have a lower chance of winning compared to their season average. Teams accustomed to cold weather (e.g., Bills, Packers) are better equipped to handle the conditions.

Summary for Analysis

For your specific scenario ('feels like' 0 +/- 10, low wind, no snow), the key takeaway is:

Expect the game plan to heavily favor the run, a low number of deep passes, and a significantly higher chance of turnovers (fumbles and interceptions). The passing game will be less efficient, but total points may not drop dramatically unless the turnover spike is severe.

RC NOTE/TAKE on the weather this week:

-- I’m not really reducing pass games or bumping up run game FF-performances all that much. I’m not afraid of cold. I don’t like rain or cold + rain or 25+ mph winds...and we don’t have any of this issue this week.

-- I like kickers indoors vs. freezing cold outdoors, given choices/options...but it’s not a radical preference.

-- The DSTs are the most affected (‘higher’ FF-numbers due to increased turnovers)

-- Possibly my favorite stat of 2025, because... https://x.com/chargerswin2025/status/1999332758095884314?s=43

...I love it because I think Justin Herbert is arguably the best QB talent in the NFL...him and Burrow...who both had to fight off ‘Tank for Tua’ in their draft.

-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Jalen Hurts

Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love

Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Michael Penix

Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith

Tyler Shough, Shedeur Sanders, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Tua Tagovailoa, Riley Leonard, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Kyler Murray

Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Spencer Rattler, Tyrod Taylor, Philip Rivers (I guess we should put him on?), Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Adrian Martinez, Brady Cook

-------------------

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12/13 SAT

(6:40amET)

-- Today’s Agenda...

Game Report day...all the remaining game reports planned to post.

Week 15 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range.

Anything else that pops up, and any new betting items I might see. All my last two days of bets are updated on the betting tracker/portfolio.

-- Our 2025 Dynasty Stash (for 2026+) valuations/rankings board will debut today.

A top 100 to start then adjusting and adding in more all this week until we get the board to the top 200.

Mostly players available on waivers/free agency or young players/rookies I find are worth putting on there for some context/comparison, one’s people have a lot of questions on...like a TreVeyon Henderson.

Obviously everyone’s league structures are different, but we look at it from a 1-QB league, more PPR/4pts pass TD perspective (as that is the vast majority of leagues still).

We consider the talent but also their real-world market value (to the outside), and we consider their current/future outlook situation (coach, depth chart, etc.) and the value of their actual position played, among other things and put that info into a blender and produce the rankings board.

This will be out early today.

NFL Weather issues UPDATE...

A cold week coming...and getting colder

CLE at CHI = 10 +/- degrees (down -5 degrees from last report), feels like -5 +/- degrees. 10-15mph +/- winds

BAL at CIN = 10 +/- degrees (down 5 degrees from earlier in the week), feels like 0 +/- degrees. 10mph winds.

LAC at KC = 20 +/- degrees feels like 20 +/- degrees. Not gonna help struggling passing games flourish.

MIA at PIT = 15 +/- degrees, feels like 0 +/- degrees. MNF...Tua/Miami headed north again. https://x.com/espnnfl/status/1999625081798930907?s=43

WSH at NYG = 30 +/- degrees, feels like 20 +/- degrees.

BUF at NE = 30 +/- degrees, feels like 25 +/- degrees.

LV at PHI = 30 +/- degrees, 15+ mph winds, ‘feels like’ 15-20 +/- degrees.

-- Our Bet of the Year/James Pearce DROY update...the machine awakens...

https://x.com/atlantafalcons/status/1999585049549976003?s=43

https://x.com/damski32/status/1999593824981528608?s=43

It was +10,000 THU afternoon when we all started hitting it. It went to +5000 then +3500 in-game THU night. It is now +2000 on DK...+1000 on FD.

I have never seen anything like this...the timing was ‘divine intervention’, from our savior...Andrew DFS.

-- A Josh Jacobs quick injury update/video... https://x.com/robdemovsky/status/1999536826332152124?s=43

This RB won’t be of help: MarShawn Lloyd didn't practice today with a new hamstring injury in addition to the calf injury he's been working back from.

-- Time for the rise of RJ Harvey?

https://x.com/nextgenstats/status/1997827900499001530?s=43

-- Marvin Harrison return this season?

https://x.com/cardschatter/status/1999526105141641527?s=43

https://x.com/bobrack/status/1999526281507897781?s=43

Not sure I have any confidence in the words, but I have to take note...

-- Devon Achane injury/Week 15 update: https://x.com/schadjoe/status/1999534071400059358?s=43

https://x.com/davidfurones_/status/1999571029002166495?s=43

Dolphins OC Smith on outlook for De'Von Achane (rib) in Week 15: "I don't see anything that's going to hold him back."

-- Interesting infographic: https://x.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/1998967225794138443?s=43

Some internet stats on QBs that I found interesting...

-- Passer rating on 3rd down this season, min. 50+ attempts:

Best:

Caleb Williams - 103.0

Drake Maye - 102.4

Jared Goff - 102.3

Mac Jones - 102.3

CJ Stroud - 101.4

Worst:

JJ McCarthy - 36.3

Tua Tagovailoa - 55.7

Joe Flacco - 61.3

Cam Ward - 64.3

Jayden Daniels - 65.4

-- Most 300-yard passing games this season:

1. Dak Prescott 5

2. Jacoby Brissett 4

T-3. Mac Jones 3

-- QB adjusted EPA leaderboard (accounts for pass pro, drops, dropped INTs, fumbles, INT returns, YAC, quality of defense faced):

1. Dak Prescott

2. Brock Purdy

3. Jordan Love

4. Sam Darnold

5. Drake Maye

6. Matthew Stafford

7. Mac Jones

== FFM Internal O-Line Grades ==

Top 5 O-Lines...

1) LAR (PFF agrees! https://x.com/detroitonlion/status/1999458596950802677?s=43)

2) BUF

3) CHI (https://x.com/jaychi_bears/status/1999497064699347040?s=43)

4) ATL

5) DEN

Two 1st-place teams, two 2nd-place/wildcards and befuddling ATL.

Bottom 5 O-Lines

1) CLE

2) LAC

3) TEN

4) ARI

5) LV

Four last place teams and the Chargers, who may not make the playoffs.

(*Skipped New Orleans, correcting)

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford, Jalen Hurts

Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love

Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, Michael Penix

Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith

Tyler Shough, Shedeur Sanders, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Riley Leonard, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray

Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Spencer Rattler, Tyrod Taylor, Philip Rivers (I guess we should put him on?), Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Adrian Martinez, Brady Cook

-------------------

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12/12 FRI

(6:07amET)

-- Today’s Agenda...

Game Report day...a focus on game reports for the rest of the week.

FFM News briefs throughout the day.

Week 15 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range to allow for the West Coast injury reports.

Anything else that pops up, and any new betting I might see.

== TNF First Reactions... ==

-- Tampa Bay still maintains the slight edge in our projections to win the NFC South at (9-8). Week 16 TB at CAR. Week 18 projects for ‘all the marbles’ CAR at TB, which we have TB winning to propel them to the #4 seed. But it’s really ‘up for grabs’.

-- The Bucs have watched Dave Canales and Liam Coen ‘walk out that door’...if Canales pulls a miracle and wins the division this season, it may be the end of Todd Bowles. I think Bowles has been propped up by his assistants, and Tampa’s GM realizes that as much as anyone. I think they’ve wanted to move on from Bowles for a while, but TB keeps winning the division by attrition every season.

-- As we mentioned a few times this week, Kirk Cousins is a Bucs-killer...which was cute, but I didn’t, no one really thought it would happen again this season (like it did last season). Welp...373 passing yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs and 26.6 FF ppg (4pts) later...

Now every 2-bit fan and ‘analyst’ will talk about how great Cousins is. Why? Because they SAW IT on a solo night game with their own two eyes. They haven’t watched all the prior Falcons games...so those events don’t matter...only this lone focus, solo night, anomaly game matters for football assessments.

And the wheels on the bus go round and round...

https://x.com/optastats/status/1999359619903209878?s=43

-- We had an even bigger solo night hero, a new hero...Kyle Pitts with a 45.6 PPR night. All prior scouting gets justified now.

Was it a Pitts issue or a coaching issue? He has had some of the worst offensive coaching in the sport...Art Smith to Raheem/Zac.

As we’re all seeing with Michael Wilson...it’s not the talent, it’s the situation. Future scouting is: 49% talent assessment and 51% ‘where did they land/who are his coaches’. And now there is so much talent flooding the NFL that there are rare places one can go and become a focal point/star.

A player that came to mind (for no reason, just random), when thinking about this, who is getting totally screwed by situation: Roman Wilson.

https://x.com/Pat_Thorman/status/1999309459378803123

-- I can’t believe Mike Evans walked back in and was ‘Mike Evans’ again. I benched in most case this week.

More than a few people I talk with denied picking up a free or cheap Mike Evans in Dynasty leagues the past month+...when he was hurt/gone...and their team was ‘out of the playoffs’ and they were rebuilding. Tez Johnson and other half-baked rookies to sit on = yes, sit on and hope for some magical event. Sit on Mike Evans? Perish the thought! He’s old!!

Why are FF-people so averse to ‘what if they age out next year and disappoint’, but are fine with...’well, I took a look at ____ young player who didn’t do crap the following year...but dems da breaks’? Both scenarios have the same (bad) outcome...why is one failed move of no concern/fine and the other a mortal sin that must be avoided at all costs?

TB WR info from this game...

- Chris Godwin: 95% snaps, 37 routes, 5 targets

- Emeka Egbuka: 64% snaps, 24 routes, 7 targets

- Mike Evans: 51% snaps, 28 routes, 12 targets

- Jalen McMillan: 49% snaps, 20 routes, 2 targets

-- Something is still wrong with Baker...55.9% Comp. Pct. in this game. Four of his last 5 games under 58% Comp. Pct. Two of the four unders were under 48%.

He missed some passes by a mile last night. Had the right read...he just can’t deliver because of his shoulder and other injuries.

-- Our James Pearce DROY URGENT bet alerts yesterday...how prescient. Possibly is gonna be the ‘Bet of the Year’ and runs many accounts under water now (like mine) to a high profitable season.

It was +10,000 odds for him to win the DROY yesterday/pre-game.

In-game, it fell to +7,500...then +5,000...and this morning it is at +3,500...he’s now #5 in the race. How he is not #2-3 right now is just the oddsmakers not wanting to fully admit their issue many of us took advantage of yesterday.

+2.0 sacks for Pearce in this game...now 8.0 sacks for the season...WAY ahead of the next rookie on the list.

No offers (yet) from DK to buy me out of a few tickets on the big move the past few hours.

His odds rise/improvement and national attention have only just begun...

https://x.com/willmcfadden/status/1999311698457690541?s=43

https://x.com/riseupreader/status/1999310663374815561?s=43

-- Final note: https://x.com/nfl_memes/status/1999331364785782890?s=43

NFL Weather issues UPDATE...

A cold week coming...and getting colder

CLE at CHI = 15 +/- degrees, feels like 5 +/- degrees. 15mph +/- winds

BAL at CIN = 15 +/- degrees (down 5 degrees from earlier in the week), feels like 5 +/- degrees.

LAC at KC = 20-25 +/- degrees (down 5 degrees from earlier in the week), feels like 15-20 +/- degrees. Not gonna help struggling passing games flourish.

MIA at PIT = 15 +/- degrees (down 5-10 degrees from earlier in the week), feels like 0-5 +/- degrees. MNF...Tua/Miami headed north again.

WSH at NYG = 30 +/- degrees, feels like 15-20 +/- degrees.

BUF at NE = 30 +/- degrees, feels like 20 +/- degrees.

LV at PHI = 30 +/- degrees, 15+ mph winds, ‘feels like’ 15-20 +/- degrees.

== News & Notes ==

-- The past 24 hours the Josh Jacobs re-injury fear factor has risen substantially. It might be Emanuel Wilson week. https://x.com/robdemovsky/status/1999160723277029663?s=43

-- FACTOID: Brock Purdy can pass Joe Burrow for the highest completion percentage over a QB's first 50 starts in NFL history this Sunday.

Purdy: 67.9%

Burrow: 68.0%

-- FACTOID: Since WK 11...

WR Michael Wilson leads w/39 recs and 481 rec yds.

HOU CB Derek Stingley Jr has allowed 22 yds on 1 rec since WK 12 (5 Tgts)

HOU v. ARI this week/Week 15

RC NOTE: But note...Stingley may not be on him every snap/route through random adjustments or lost in a crowd, etc.

-- Chimere Dike love... https://x.com/polymarketblitz/status/1999144794862313924?s=43

-- Great...a week’s worth of Joe Burrow traded or retiring talk off one comment...

https://x.com/mattverderame/status/1998911381769433329?s=43

https://x.com/themarvspace/status/1999259403044946260?s=43

https://x.com/danorlovsky7/status/1999101937241804865?s=43

== RB scoring trends ==

Top 10 PPR PPG RBs

25.3 = CMC

23.8 = JT

23.7 = Gibbs

20.9 = Achane

20.3 = Bijan

18.0 = J Cook

17.3 = Jacobs

16.2 = Javonte

14.6 = Etienne

14.5 = DHenry

Top 10 PPR PPG RBs (Weeks 5-14)

25.8 = CMC

25.4 = Gibbs

24.4 = JT

21.8 = Achane

19.5 = Bijan

18.0 = Dowdle

16.9 = Jacobs

16.6 = Kyren

16.4 = Ch Brown

15.9 = J Cook

Top 10 PPR PPG RBs (Weeks 10-14)

32.4 = Gibbs

24.7 = Achane

24.3 = CMC

21.2 = JT

20.8 = TreVeyon

19.1 = Bijan

17.6 = Ch Brown

16.6 = Henry

16.6 = J Cook

16.4 = Etienne

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford, Jalen Hurts

Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love

Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, Michael Penix

Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith

Trevor Lawrence, Shedeur Sanders, Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Riley Leonard, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray

Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Philip Rivers (I guess we should put him on?), Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Adrian Martinez, Brady Cook

-------------------

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12/11 THU

(7:33amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

Game Reports out today...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.

Week 15 projections update after 7pm+ when the inactives are announced.

TNF Preview report.

Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.

Injury Notes...

Breece Hall = I’m hearing some whispers that he might be in danger of missing Week 14...Isaiah Davis would be a heavy touch role if Breece is gone...with what QB is anyone’s guess. I think it’s Adrian Martinez or Tyrod Taylor.

It’s NOT out of the question Breece could get shut down in this lost season. Breece is a free agent, so would he even rush himself back in?

CeeDee Lamb = Trending towards a return this week, but not a lock yet.

Marvin Harrison Jr. = Didn’t practice Wednesday. No need for him to rush back. Likely, he is out this week.

Tee Higgins = There was a lot of hysteria early in the week that he might miss multiple weeks with another concussion, but there’s some potential he’s gonna be cleared to play this week.

De’Von Achane = Looks like he’ll be OK to play MNF, a huge game...but it hasn’t been made officially official.

Mike Evans = Returning this week...and note that TB tends to bring back the weapons slowly (game #1) from a long time away. Jalen McMillan questionable for Week 15, but likely not back yet.

Drake London = Out this week but appears set to return next week/Week 16. https://x.com/marcraimondi/status/1998825699918954714?s=43

== NEWS & NOTES ==

-- HEADLINE: The Denver Post’s Parker Gabriel reports Broncos QB Sam Ehlinger declined the Colts’ offer to sign him to their active roster.

I thought/speculated that Indy would try this...and I also speculated (from a source) that Indy may have burned a bridge prior with Ehlinger, and apparently they did.

The best QB the Colts could have gone with in Week 15+ is Ehlinger.

Also, Ehlinger may have a shot at a ring with Denver...but likely not with Indy...so why leave a place where you’re wanted and got a Super Bowl shot/hope?

-- Some Chimere Dike hope thoughts this week (as always)? https://x.com/ihartitz/status/1998848223792988366?s=43

-- Christian Watson is on a heater: https://x.com/UnderdogNFL/status/1998097643797700750

But he has the Broncos and likely Patrick Surtain this week.

-- Don’t you have to say ‘We (FFM) were right” about Jameson Williams? It just all came out of order against us for FF flow to begin things? https://x.com/ryanmc23/status/1998530828016742616?s=43

-- FUN with A.I. Jalen Hurts = https://x.com/_nonballknower/status/1998478294791106970?s=43

== QB FF Scoring Trends ==

Top 10 QB scoring/4pts (Weeks 8-14...four or more games played)

26.1 = J Allen

21.6 = Dart

21.2 = Brissett

21.1 = Stafford

19.9 = Dak

19.6 = Flacco

19.5 = Maye

19.3 = Caleb W

18.7 = Goff

18.4 = Trevor

Big names outside the top 10...

17.9 = Mahomes

17.4 = Hurts

16.8 = Herbert

16.4 = Nix

15.6 = Purdy

14.7 = Shedeur

12.4 = Stroud

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford

Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott

Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, Michael Penix

Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith

Trevor Lawrence, Shedeur Sanders, J.J. McCarthy, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Riley Leonard, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray

Anthony Richardson, Tyrod Taylor, Philip Rivers (I guess we should put him on?), Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Adrian Martinez, Brady Cook

-------------------

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12/10 WED

(7:59amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

Game Report day...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.

Week 14 projections update 7-9pmET approx.

Streaming news items throughout the day, more afternoon-night for me this day.

Any betting action to start the week.

-- Tuesday night free agency/waivers commentary/notes (national overview)...

I didn’t think Blake Corum’s early trend to be the top free agent of the week was gonna hold from yesterday, and it didn’t. Jaylen Wright looks like the top get. To be fair...Wright was way more available, so volume-wise it was Wright over Corum. But where both were available...Corum was the most pursued/spent on.

Volume-wise, the five most added players last night: Wright-Jags DST-49ers DST, Singletary-Flournoy. All because of their big ‘last game’...or the DSTs for obvious streaming matchup reasons.

Shedeur Sanders was the QB winner of the week but there was some love for JJ McCarthy’s Dallas matchup this week after Shedeur.

Ryan Flournoy was the overwhelming top WR, but a semi-surprising second was Darius Slayton. Slayton showed a lot of strength in pursuit of him last night.

Not sure what hand we had in this, but Isaiah Likely got a lot more picked up last night than early projected...Likely and Mike Gesicki were at the top of a very spread out/deep TE pool with Loveland, Waller, Strange.

Pineiro and McPherson led the way of new kickers for people.

The players people were most getting rid of: Oronde Gadsden was #1, followed by mainstream hype machine Adonai Mitchell, then Darren Waller and Devaughn Vele.

== Our current FFM Playoff Projections ==

AFC

1) DEN

2) NE

3) HOU

4) CIN (8-9)...wins a 3-way tiebreaker, but it’s anyone’s (of the top 3) division right now.

5) JAX

6) BUF

7) LAC

----------

8) KC

NFC

1) LAR

2) GB

3) PHI

4) TB

5) SF

6) SEA

7) DET

---------

8) CHI

2026 NFL Draft: (1) LV, (2) WSH, (3) NYJ

== NEWS and NOTES and TWEETS ==

-- This may help explain the ‘why’ on Philip Rivers and Indy...nice reporting by JJ Watt: https://x.com/jjwatt/status/1998461238704042159?s=43

-- HEADLINE: Cardinals LT Parris Johnson (knee) is week-to-week.

The Cardinals have an ever-growing injury report...and this is maybe the worst/most impactful of the list for them, operationally.

-- Tweet/Meme/GIF of the Year candidate... https://x.com/NFL_Memes/status/1997881639691505965

-- Philip Rivers to Indy has launched a million fresh memes. Some of the ones that made me chuckle:

Rivers’ 1st day at work? https://x.com/sconniecolt/status/1998190511677681815?s=43

Rivers has a lot of kids: https://x.com/sconniecolt/status/1998417463143460934?s=43

-- I’m so glad that I bet heavy on the 49ers failing this season: https://x.com/lombardihimself/status/1998068517258887242?s=43

My personal current vote for 2025 COY is...Dave Canales and Kyle Shanahan, a split ticket vote today.

-- Good one to end on... https://x.com/ihartitz/status/1998400932875292734?s=43

== TE scoring trends ==

Top 10 PPR PPG TEs (Season-to-date):

18.1 = McBride, ARI

15.3 = Bowers, LV

14.7 = Kraft, GB

13.3 = Kittle, SF

13.1 = Ferguson, DAL

12.7 = Kelce, KC

12.4 = T Warren, IND

12.4 = Kincaid, BUF

11.9 = LaPorta, DET

11.5 = Goedert, PHI

Top 10 PPR PPG TEs (Weeks 5-14, six or more games played):

20.1 = McBride, ARI

18.3 = Bowers, LV

14.0 = Kelce, KC

13.4 = Kittle, SF

12.4 = Kincaid, BUF

12.3 = Fannin, CLE

12.1 = Warren, IND

12.0 = JFerguson, DAL

10.8 = Schultz, HOU

10.7 = Goedert, PHI

10.7 = Theo J, NYG

Top 10 PPR PPG TEs (Weeks 10-14, three or more games played):

21.0 = McBride, ARI

18.2 = Kittle, SF

13.3 = Bowers, LV

12.5 = Kelce, KC

11.6 = Fannin, CLE

11.6 = Juwan J, NO

11.6 = HHenry, NE

11.3 = Parkinson, LAR

11.2 = Strange, JAX

10.7 = Gesicki, CIN

--------------------

#11 Warren, #12 JFerg, #15 Loveland, #18 Theo J

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford

Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott

Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, Michael Penix

Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith

Trevor Lawrence, Shedeur Sanders, J.J. McCarthy, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Riley Leonard, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray

Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins

-------------------

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12/9 TUE

(5:45amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

Tuesday Night Waivers Video Show 8:30pm-10pmET

Week 15 Projections day...they will debut/post approx. 5-7pmET

Game Report/s today...as many as we can get out.

News & Notes throughout the day.

MNF Week 14: PHI at LAC first reactions...

-- My first thought is...listening to sports talk radio in Philadelphia today is gonna be quite something. The hate/vitriol/frustration is going to boil over today.

-- Jalen Hurts had 4 INTs...and he was already a strong contender for ‘blamed the most’ in the current Philly slide...and being the QB puts you in that spot, like it or not, so he’s gonna really get it today. Already being scrutinized, the team losing, and then having a bad game on a solo night game...MNF being the worst place to do that...it’s gonna be a nightmare for Hurts this week/rest of season. https://x.com/fieldyates/status/1998214591445368835?s=43

Hurts needs to like win back-to-back games with major outputs to stop this bleeding. The bleeding can be stopped: https://x.com/thechiefnerd/status/1997998846241087588?s=43

Ladies and Gentleman, your reigning, defending Super Bowl champ MVP...now will have this week (at a minimum) where everything is gonna be about how to trade him or replace him. https://x.com/ghettogronk/status/1998213920977469759?s=43

-- Plugging in this game result and projecting ahead...the final playoff spot in the AFC is going to be won/lost this week with the result of the LAC at KC. The winner is all but in, especially if LAC wins. The loser is out of the playoffs. It’s that simple.

The Eagles still win the NFC East, but it is very precarious. Dallas can still win it but needs help from like a Washington to somehow beat Philly one of the 2 times they play each other from here. Dallas has a chance to pull this off but can’t afford a slip up...but Philly has to stop this bleeding. The strength of schedule says the Eagles ‘got this’: https://x.com/rjochoa/status/1998253638838558918?s=43

But... https://x.com/kevinnegandhi/status/1998254672604492207?s=43

-- Justin Herbert got sacked 7 times...LAC had the advantage of 5 Philly turnovers...it wasn’t a banner game by LAC either, they still needed a great play at the end of OT...a pick at the goal line to save this game for them.

-- MOST IMPORTANTLY...I am getting peppered with messages from FF teams who got a miracle win due to the dreadful Hurts FF scoring, and/or because people sat Herbert/Gadsden and even Ladd for this week...but mainly a lot of the shock come-from-behind FF-wins had Cam Dicker’s 5/5 FGs putting the exclamation point on it. There’s a few+ low probability-to-win FF teams entering the game last night who pulled it out and are headed to the playoffs.

Honestly, we love to hate-watch football and hate-play Fantasy...but all these Week 14 wins to launch people into the playoffs after such a rough start to this season -- there’s not too many other cheap thrill rides like the NFL and FF sometimes in this crazy, intense ‘real world’.

Thank you to Fantasy for giving all of us a great distraction...to have a constant jigsaw puzzle/Escape Room to figure out every day for like 5-6+ months out of the year. Even if you were on the losing end of the Hurts meltdown or got Dickered by the LAC kicker...it’s an engaging thrill ride, an emotional roller coaster game to play.

A poetic way to end this section: https://x.com/austinabbott/status/1998193106215186589?s=43

-- HEADLINE: Bengals coach Zac Taylor said Tee Higgins is back in concussion protocol.

Tee banged his head around a couple of times, again, on Sunday...and he’s coming off a concussion that had him miss the Thanksgiving game. This is likely to go all the way to Friday before we find out if he clears...but there’s real concern here that it might be more than one game: https://x.com/thefantasypt/status/1998128378814287950?s=43

-- HEADLINE: Chiefs OT Wanya Morris suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 14’s loss to the Texans.

The Chiefs are really falling apart...a battered O-Line, 2-3 starters on the O-Line are hurt...they are in trouble. Facing the other big-time hurt O-Line Chargers Week 15 for a virtual playoff game between LAC-KC for the #7 seed in the end.

-- HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Colts will bring in QB Philip Rivers for a workout Tuesday.

-- HEADLINE: Colts coach Shane Steichen said “the hope” is that Riley Leonard (knee) will play against the Seahawks.

It’s a workout for Rivers...not a reality (yet)...but if Riley Leonard is more hurt/possibly missing this week -- the Colts are super-desperate for a QB. Brett Rypien could start Week 15...but then they have no QB behind him for an emergency (if Leonard is hurt).

I’m going to guess that they sign a QB off the practice squad of some team Tuesday. They would get Sam Ehlinger off Denver if they could, as a guess...unless they burned a bridge with Ehlinger when he was there last. https://x.com/kelbermannfl/status/1998184743154639171?s=43

-- HEADLINE: Broncos coach Sean Payton said the Broncos have “got to continue to find more touches for” Marvin Mims “on the offensive side of the ball and we’ll do that.”

I know what you’re trying to do Sean Payton, you sneaky Pete...this is Lucy ‘pulling the ball away’ again and again on Charlie Brown. You’re not going to fool me again: https://youtu.be/mZkJAx8FycI?si=dGWwe-j3IZ94Fzgn

-- PK Scoring Trends...

The kickers are starting to settle into the ‘cream rising to the top’ (you’ll see the same names in the different time period trends a lot now)...and one kicker is a surprise the past 5-10 weeks.

Top 5 PKs Weeks 1-14

12.2 = Myers

11.3 = Fairbairn

11.1 = Aubrey

10.8 = Dicker

10.4 = Pineiro

Top 5 PKs Weeks 5-14

12.4 = Fairbairn

12.2 = Myers

11.9 = Dicker

10.8 = McPherson

10.7 = Pineiro

Top 5 PKs Weeks 9-14

14.2 = Myers

12.4 = Dicker

11.8 = McPherson

11.8 = Fairbairn

11.2 = Aubrey

*I go in alphabetical order, but mistakenly skipped over ‘Cleveland’...the three Browns QBs are here now.*

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford

Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott

Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, Michael Penix

Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith

Trevor Lawrence, Shedeur Sanders, J.J. McCarthy (the 3 QBs listed after him...all bombed in their starting season), Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Riley Leonard, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray

Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins

-------------------

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12/8 MON

(5:51amET)

-- Today's Agenda...

Week 14 TNF report will post Monday midday.

I’m working on the Executive Report all day ahead of MNF...planned to post 6-8pmET.

MNF Betting overview and my bets will post ahead of MNF.

-- Injuries from Sunday roundup...

Daniel Jones = Achilles tear, done for the season. Riley Leonard joins Sauce Gardner to try to hang onto the playoffs (and it’s likely they will fall out of the race, as we projected they would...even with DJ). https://x.com/nfl_memes/status/1997758088708071508?s=43

This would not surprise me if Cincy loses one-more-game and is out of the playoffs: https://x.com/jmthrivept/status/1997829135390138864?s=43

Jayden Daniels = Re-injury to his arm, but not dire...could come back this week but if he’s not shut down for the season, government officials should raid the Commanders management offices and Navy Seals should extract JD from the team.

Zach Ertz = ACL...career-ending, most-likely.

Tyrod Taylor = Groin strain out for a week+ likely.

De’Von Achane = Rib injury...could’ve returned but was held out because the game was at hand.

Nick Chubb = Rib injury...could be a fracture.

Keaton Mitchell = Knee injury...unknown severity.

David Njoku = Reaggravated a knee injury, unknown for this week.

Darnell Washington = Concussion...unknown for Week 15.

Geno Smith = Shoulder...hopeful for Week 15, but unknown...and ‘why’ push him back?

== News & Tweets Items ==

-- Thank you to Michael Wilson, my most FF savior player of the 2025 season. Thank you from all the do-or-die Week 14 teams you gave wins too. https://x.com/ihartitz/status/1997820979524067556?s=46

https://x.com/fieldyates/status/1997830307177996590?s=43

https://x.com/nfl_convo/status/1997791008550248726?s=43

https://x.com/mattharmon_byb/status/1997825796262821962?s=43

People will never ‘get it’ with Wilson, they’re confused and want to make jokes about it...which is a slap in the face to what Wilson is doing and the scouting problem that keeps MHJ in the way: https://x.com/jakobsanderson/status/1997821075896541445?s=43

https://x.com/davismattek/status/1997789663558353086?s=43

-- Trey Benson is pretty much toast for 2025, I had been told to look out for that in recent weeks...and now so has Adam Schefter, apparently: https://x.com/adamschefter/status/1997649406854590760?s=43

-- Sorry to my Bears fans: https://x.com/nfl_memes/status/1997828301336035467?s=43

-- I talked about this a bunch this past offseason... https://x.com/mlfootball/status/1997432507772330121?s=43

Why should well-paid college stars rush to the pros anymore?

-- Me and Bucky Irving are on the same team: https://x.com/bucstrackernfl/status/1997674949096444229?s=43

Congrats, Bucky!

-- JJM gonna have a hard time ever escaping this...poor Pat Mahomes: https://x.com/polymarketblitz/status/1997885325276754288?s=43

The ‘unholy trinity’ of pass defenses strikes again!

-- ‘Facts’...to end things on: https://x.com/itsme_urstruly/status/1997257032681083136?s=43

-- Maybe this is the more appropriate way to end things: https://x.com/ihartitz/status/1997765442337726642?s=43

*I go in alphabetical order, but mistakenly skipped over ‘Cleveland’...the three Browns QBs will be on here tomorrow...and I added a 3rd Indy QB today as well.*

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford

Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott

Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Michael Penix

Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith

J.J. McCarthy (the 3 QBs listed after him...all bombed in their starting season), Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Davis Mills, Riley Leonard, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray

Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins

-------------------

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