DFS Shark Tank Week 6: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be ‘the fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
*** Because of the injury to RC, there was no chat this week…so, the experts submitted their plays independent of each other (and there’s a reason I emphasize that this week…).
Here’s some of their DFS wisdom for Week 6…
ANDREW DFS:
QB Stack
-- No better choice this week than Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr. ($D6,300; OP 7.9%). Brady has been on fire over the past few weeks: 336 passing yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game along with a 71% completion percentage. Safe to say Brady is unfazed by all the distractions on and off the field.
This week he draws a favorable matchup against the Steelers who gave up over 350 passing yards and 4 touchdowns to Buffalo in the first half. The Steelers are without TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and three starting cornerbacks. Fire up Chris Godwin (D$ 6,100; OP 15%) and/or Mike Evans ($D 7,000; OP 8%) to pair alongside Brady. I’m more interested in the latter due to the lower ownership projection.
Mid-range
-- There are a ton of RB injuries this week which is resulting in chalky plays such as Rhamondre Stevenson and Eno Benjamin. One player not garnering as much attention is NYJ RB Breece Hall (D$ 5,800; 13.3%). For a similar price, you’re getting a RB with an explosive upside and fading the chalkier plays this week. Benjamin and Stevenson are both excellent mid-range plays this week too; however, their ownership projections are both in excess of 35%. I’ll take my chances fading these players and hope that gives me a big advantage over the rest of the pool.
Cheap play of the week
-- CLE TE David Njoku (D$ 4,000; OP 8.9%) has been gelling with QB Jacoby Brissett. Since Week 2, Njoku has averaged 7 targets per game, 5.8 receptions and 70.5 receiving yards. The Patriots defensive focus will be stopping Browns RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt which will give Njoku plenty of opportunities for big plays.
Chalky play to avoid
-- The Cardinals defense has been on fire since getting carved up by Mahomes in Week 1. They held the league’s hottest team, Philadelphia Eagles, to only 20 points. SEA WR Tyler Lockett (D$ 5,600) has an ownership percentage in excess of 30%. Fading Lockett could give a big edge over the pool. There is a decent chance that the Arizona defense figures out how to stop SEA QB Geno Smith along with the rest of the Seahawks offense.
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ROSS JACOBS:
Favorite Stack: This week I have to go with Kyler, ideally paired in a double stack with Hollywood and Rondale but you can mix in Ertz as well. Seattle has arguably the worst defense in the entire league, certainly the worst secondary (particularly against slot receivers), and Kyler and company have been getting better every week. This game looks like it has shootout potential, and I could easily see Kyler eclipsing 400 yards and multiple TDs.
After Kyler, I also really like Brady and Cousins this week.
Best Mid-Priced Option: Chris Godwin at $6100 looks too good to be true. I will take Tom Brady's 1B against a horrible Pittsburgh defense missing half their defense every day of the week.
Best Cheap Option: Eno Benjamin is easy but too good to pass up at $4600. With James Conner out Eno is likely to handle 70-80% of the RB volume for Arizona and has shown he's very capable the last few weeks. If you're playing a Kyler stack you might want to avoid Eno, but otherwise he's a great option to throw in with Brady or one of the more expensive QBs like Allen or Lamar to give you a little salary flexibility.
