DFS Shark Tank Week 5: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be ‘the fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
*** Because of the injury to RC, there was no chat this week…so, the experts submitted their plays independent of each other (and there’s a reason I emphasize that this week…).
Here’s some of their DFS wisdom for Week 5…
ANDREW DFS:
QB Stack
- Channeling my inner Skip Bayless: I’m going with Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr. for my Week 5 QB. If a two-game losing streak isn’t motivation enough, Brady’s personal life is all over the news and the lowly Atlanta Falcons may be the victims of Brady’s wrath.
Since Brady moved to TB he has averaged close to 3 touchdowns and 330 yards in four games against Atlanta. The Falcons are also missing their two best offensive weapons (Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson). Although their defense has shown some promise, let’s not forget that they played one decent QB in the first four games (Winston – Stafford – Smith – Brissett).
The downside to this play is that Brady will be the chalkiest QB play of the main slate (20%+ projected ownership) due to his low salary (D$6,000). To make matters worse, I’m also playing his top two (chalky) pass catchers Chris Godwin ($D5,900; 25%+ PO) and Mike Evans ($D6,900; 15%+ PO). TE Cameron Brate has been ruled out this week, WR Russell Gage got added to the injury report late and WR Julio Jones seems to have a lingering injury which could limit his snaps. In typical weeks, I wouldn’t want my QB stack to be a popular play; however, I can’t miss out on what may be a signature game for Tom Brady.
Mid-range play
- Jaguars RB James Robinson (D$6,300; 5 – 7% PO) will be my mid-range play of the week. The Jags will be facing a Texans defense which has allowed 5 ypc, 141 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to running backs. It goes without saying that this matchup is very favorable for James Robinson. The bonus is the low ownership projection which is most likely driven by Robinson’s low output last week against the Eagles. I don’t think we should read too much into that game given that the weather was less than ideal, and the Eagles defense is one of the best in the league.
Chalk to avoid
- I would avoid playing Falcons WR Drake London (D$5,900; 20% PO) in Week 5. I think this is a popular play since London is an up-and-coming rookie WR and Falcons TE Kyle Pitts is out this week. Mariota wasn’t really targeting Pitts in the passing game anyways; I don’t believe that London’s target share will increase significantly in Pitts’ absence. Tampa Bay’s secondary is one of the best units in the league. They should have no trouble shutting down London especially given Mariota’s poor QB performance.
Cheap play of the week
- My favorite cheap play of the week is Eagles TE Dallas Goedert ($D 4,700; 15%+ PO). The Cardinals are not great at covering the TE position as they have allowed 7 receptions, 85 yards, and 0.75 TDs per game this season. In addition, the Cardinals coverage will most likely focus on stopping the explosive Eagles WRs as opposed to Goedert. The Eagles offense has been firing on all cylinders, Dallas Goedert could easily have over 100 yards receiving and a TD catch.
ROSS JACOBS:
Top Stack:
Normally I'm a big proponent of trying to find alternatives to the mainstream plays, but due to how many big name QBs are off the main slate, one player stands head and shoulders above the rest and I can find no reason to fade him...Tom Brady.
He's got an excellent matchup with a bad Atlanta defense this week and he comes at the low, low price of $6000. You can stack him with your choice of multiple pass catchers although you should have one/both of Mike Evans or Chris Godwin at minimum.
Top Mid-Priced Option:
James Robinson. I don't understand how this guy is being projected as less than 5% owned. I don't believe that will happen, but even if he gets up to 10% it's still a phenomenal play. Yes, he's in a 50/50 split with Etienne but as with many splits these days, it largely depends on game flow. The Jaguars project to lead Houston comfortably which lends to more Robinson hammering the defense and closing out the game. Etienne works better if Jacksonville is trailing.
But my favorite part is that he's playing against Houston's league-worst run defense. They've been gashed by every RB they've played and this should be no difference. Absolutely love Robinson here for $6300.
Top Cheap Option:
Nico Collins. With any cheap play you're taking a leap of faith. After all, if the player was a consistent performer he wouldn't be cheap. But there are cheap plays and there are cheap plays. We aren't trying to hit that random player that happens to suit up one week and falls ass-backwards into some stats. We're looking for guys that are consistently on the field but just haven't had much success for whatever reason and circumstances now look more favorable. Enter Nico Collins.
For $4100 we get a full-time starter that's getting good volume (5 targets per game), in a matchup against a rising defense that's better against the run than the pass and in a spot where the Texans project to play in a pass-heavy script from behind. So far, the Texans have played against the Colts, Broncos, Bears, and Chargers (with JC Jackson), several of the better pass defenses in the league.
The Jaguars are much improved but this seems like the best matchup Houston has had yet for their passing game. All Collins needs is 15 points to be a smash value pick for tournaments. He might not get it, but if he does you'll be sitting in a nice spot to profit since he's projected to be less than 2% owned. This is the perfect value pick to differentiate you from the field.
