2024 NFL Preseason Game Fantasy Scouting (Wk1): Jets 20, Commanders 17

2024 NFL Preseason Game Fantasy Scouting (Wk1): Jets 20, Commanders 17

Scouting NFL preseason game tape for Dynasty/Fantasy Football and handicapping purposes...

Game overview:

I’m officially halfway through the game tapes of Week 1 of the preseason, and this game is my favorite game to watch/scout of all of them...so far for Week 1.

Not so much on the ‘wow’ factor of the participants, but more...it was like going to a family reunion. I got to see, as a scout, some new favorites of mine, some old favorites that I kinda wrote out of my mind...but we exchanged social medias and we’re gonna keep in touch now because it was a pleasure to see them again...and there were some family members I had never seen or knew of prior to the gathering that I want to keep up with too. A smorgasbord of football notes/players to work with here...many of the off-the-grid prospects in this game. I can’t comment on all of them, or I’d be here all day, so I’m focusing more on the ones that really obviously FF-matter.

As for the game itself, this was a well-played game for a preseason game. All the QBs played well or pretty well...or at least not-totally-terrible. The players were giving great effort. This was a fine ballgame to watch as a scout.

A thought on each team after watching this...

Washington had an almost collegiate enthusiasm on the sidelines and on the field. They played with confidence/exuberance...and they played well. All the offseason personnel and coaching changes – I think this team is gonna compete for the NFC East title. And with the Giants looking better, and the G-Men only a season removed from being a playoff team – the NFC East might get turned on its head this season.

If you thought Philly and Dallas were like ‘B’ students and Washington and NYG were more like ‘D/F’ students...and the gap was too far for anyone to approach the smarty pants Eagles or Cowboys...think again. The gap in 2024 might be like Philly and Dallas sinking to C+ students, and getting dumber/sloppier daily...while the Commanders and Giants have studied and smartened this year and are up to ‘C’ students and climbing. The 4 teams, the 2 and 2 groupings – they are about to cross paths on each other’s trajectory.

For coffee bet money, I bet on Washington to win the NFC East this summer at +1200 and after watching the Giants game, I bet on NYG to win the NFC East at +1800...but then I also bet an exact order of finish with WSH-NYG then NYG-WSH to finish 1-2 in the East at huge odds...like +6000 or more...with Philly 3rd, and Dallas 4th in both exact order of finish bet scenarios. Did it just for fun/a hunch. Last year at this time, I had a hunch about Houston and Indy taking the AFC South, when it was thought to be quite improbable...but HOU/IND 2023 were a different level ‘good’/promising than WSH/NYG at this stage.

The Jets have a ton of talent but a very questionable coaching staff, and I had been getting worried – but they are sucking me back in...I’m swinging back over to thinking the Jets may have enough talent, especially on defense, where they can pull the AFC East out. After watching how bad Buffalo was Saturday, I am re-encouraged by my initial urge to bet the Jets to win the AFC East back in May.

Both the AFC and NFC East may be won by attrition...by 9-8/8-9 records.

Scouting Notes from the game:

 -- We have to begin with the assessment of Jayden Daniels (2-3 for 45 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 1-3-0/1) in his NFL debut...

It was brief (one series), but it was fine/good/as I expected or hoped it would be. Daniels played under control, nothing seemed to be going ‘too fast’ for him. Daniels, like Michael Penix, were the ‘ready to go’ QBs from this draft...and they both looked it in their preseason debuts.

Daniels’ first pass was a flare pass that he threw about 10 feet over the receiver’s head, and then Daniels was totally accurate from there. He hit on a 3rd & long bomb that was a perfect placement, on a low probability catch...that was caught to extend the drive. Daniels got them to the goal-to-go where they tried to run it in a bunch with the RBs, but then Daniels took it himself for the TD...a graceful, under control run to the end zone off a spread/RPO fake handoff and run. We’re gonna see that a lot with him...which is FF-goodness!

A brief, but very good debut start for Daniels

 -- I was so happy to see Braelon Allen (6-54-0) running well in this game. He’s one of the 20 best RBs walking the planet. Had he been drafted by Dallas, he’d be an RB1 for redraft now...or a week from now...once people got to really see him.

Probably the single most mystifying thing about the 2024 NFL Draft was all the teams who ‘passed’ on Allen and the absolute dreck at RB teams took instead. Bucky Irving, Will Shipley, and Ray Davis being drafted right ahead of Braelon Allen is my greatest evidence to prosecute the NFL and it’s analysts as derelict of duty.

But...to keep the malfeasance going, Allen will be stuck behind Breece Hall for 2024...2024 at a minimum. Could be through 2025 and 2026 as well. But it’s also possible Allen will be so good, and that Breece will want a big contract extension next offseason, that the Jets deal Breece away...and I think Breece wants away from this coaching staff.

 -- Adding to Breece’s ‘future (in NY)’ pressure is another rookie, Isaiah Davis (4-8-0, 4-33-0/4), who is a sneaky good #2 RB and pass game, hurry up offense type option...but with size to be a main carry guy if needed.  

The Jets, arguably, have the single most talented ‘young backfield’ emerging group in the NFL.

 -- NYJ QB report...

Another reason to take NYJ seriously to win the AFC East is...they got a great #2 QB this offseason...Tyrod Taylor (1-2 for -1 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is the perfect #2 emergency/plug-and-play QB. He’s a good enough QB when in need...and a locker room leader.

After Tyrod started (Aaron sat), then Andrew Peasley (8-11 for 73 yards, 1 TD/0 INTs) came in...and I instantly thought, who the hell is Andrew Peasley? I deal with 700-800 prospect names for any given NFL Draft per year, and we get data and tape and various things to assess whether to take them seriously or not...and to grade all of them we think are worth grading (like 600+ of them)...but I got nothing on Peasley. There’s always 2-3-4 guys that evade our net in the pre-Draft scouting and data fishing. So, let’s find out about Peasley...

Six-year college QB...went from Utah State for four years, as a backup the whole way -- to Wyoming transfer (2022) to become the starter. He had his best year in 2023: 1,991 yards passing with 20 TDs/5 INTs.

Peasley didn’t look too far over his skis here. He wasn’t bad at all. Not going to be an impact NFL QB most likely, but he wasn’t terrible here.

And then there was my guy from the 2023 NFL Draft, one of the top sleeper QB prospects we had last year -- Adrian Martinez (6-10 for 104 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 2-24-0). I thought he might be dead-and-buried as an NFL prospect after last year getting ignored by the Lions (as a UDFA), but he went to the UFL and won an MVP and a title last UFL season...and he was picked up a few weeks ago by NYJ...and he was really very solid here, absolutely his best NFL performance...like NFL roster-able solid/good-looking.

I always knew he was a good+ runner of the ball as a QB..almost an RB at QB, but his passing has gotten so much better. He let it rip in this game and he now has a pulse in the NFL again. So happy for him! Drew Lock gets $5M with NYG, and Adrian Martinez will probably be cut and go back to the UFL again...the scouting and GM world is not fair/not smart.

 -- Commanders RB report...

It was a true 50/50 split backfield between Brian Robinson (5-20-0) and Austin Ekeler (2-7-0, 0-0-0/1). This is not a ‘Robinson runs the ball and Ekeler does the pass game work’ split. This is Robinson for a few plays then Ekeler for a few plays and back and forth they go playing smart, situational, rotational ball with the RBs.

And for the record, Ekeler looks fast/quick to me...he looks ready to go. A steal in free agency by the Commanders.

Oddly, the third RB in the game once BRob/Ek went out...was Jeremy McNichols (3-10-0, 1-8-0/1). Not in a throwaway move to put him, it seemed...it was a move of respect. And he was solid here. I think I know it was ‘respect’ because the 4th RB in the game was Chris Rodriguez (6-0-0, 0-0-0/1)...a message sent that he’s potentially on his way to getting cut, it looks like. On his way to getting cut, I say, because the big ‘winner’ of the non-starters, to me, was rookie Michael Wiley (8-34-1, 1-5-0/1). Wiley was 210 pounds at the Combine, but looked a swole 215-220 here and he was moving well. He’s going to move up my DRD top 300 rankings.

 -- I feared it would take rookie TE Ben Sinnott (3-57-0/3) a half-a-season or more (like a year+) to develop as a pass catcher, if he could. Such a great blocker but so clunky, inexperienced at a high-level of pass game work. Well, it took less than a-half-a-season...it took half-a-training camp. He looks much smoother in the pass game already, he will shoot up our DRD top 300 as well, coming off this event.

 -- Rookie WR Luke McCaffrey (2-25-0/3) looked fine, but he was nowhere near the starting lineup. He didn’t see the ball/I didn’t notice him in the game until the 2nd-half. FF 2024 downgrade on this development, but he’s gonna be fine eventually...possibly by Week 1...or 3-4-5. He’s better than Jahan Dotson.

 -- I don’t remember seeing 2023 UDFA WR Kazmeir Allen (1-2-0, 1-12-0/2) work last preseason, if I did...I forgot about him...but after seeing him here, I want some more Kazmeir in my life. I’ll be keeping an eye on him. He’s like a Deonte’ Hardy type returner, jet sweep, slot WR with really nice speed/acceleration. He tried to jump over a tackler in this game and almost jumped out of the stadium.

This is the college highlight tape of Allen...keep in mind when you watch it that he’s a slot WR in the pros, supposedly... https://youtu.be/LkqRWoVT7gw?si=YFsycHBwyLpwboFY

Deep-Deep-Deep roster Dynasty league teams, like you 32-team, 53-man roster type mega-leagues may want to consider sticking him on a roster and see what happens, especially if kick returns are part of your scoring.

 -- The debut of Malachi Corley (4-27-0/5) was ‘eh’, fine...nothing exciting but solid, no issues...but no thrills either.  

 -- Just a tip of the cap to an old FFM fave WR prospect, Brandon Smith (2-70-0/2)...who I didn’t even know was still in the league. Hands of gold...or he was in college but has been bouncing around the league ever since. He caught a brilliant, diving 30+ yard bomb here...almost landing in the end zone for a score and then had another 30+ yarder as well.

Doesn’t FF matter, but I was happy to see him at the RC family football reunion having a moment.

 -- One IDP note...

UDFA rookie DT Leonard Taylor III (2 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs)...he was always highly rated in college by analysts, and I thought it was because of his name more than his play. I didn’t really see ‘it’ with him...and the NFL soured on him too, in the end, going undrafted. But watching him here...I am starting to get ‘it’. There’s hope here after all. He was quick off the snap and getting by blockers with quickness.

Kudos to the Jets and their efforts to run nine D-Lineman + Sauce/Reed as a base defense this season.