NFL Draft 2022 Scouting Report: DE George Karlaftis, Purdue

*Our DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

Is George Karlaftis the best edge rushing prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft? I dunno…which Karlaftis are we speaking of? The 2019 version that racked up 17.0 TFLs and 7.5 sacks as a freshman in 2019…or the ho-hum Karlaftis who only had 4.5 sacks with 10.0 TFLs in 2021 (12 games)?

Actually, neither version is the best edge rusher for 2022. I’m not sure either is worthy of a top 5 DE prospect ranking in 2022…or worthy of a 1st-round draft pick.

When I previewed tape of Karlaftis in the summer of 2021, I was captured by his quick feet and motor for a freshman playing in a power conference…a great beginning to his career in 2019. His 2020 season/tape was ‘incomplete’…two games played, a lower leg injury early and he tried to return weeks later but got COVID and missed the rest of the season. So, with only the 2019 tape to go by – Karlaftis seemed very promising, developing.

In 2022, pre-Draft, I look back and see just 4.5 sacks in 12 games…that’s not the Karlaftis that I remembered/had hoped for. What happened? Honestly, I don’t know. I went back and watched his 2019 work and his 2021 work, and I walked away not as impressed. He just isn’t developing into any kind of ‘force’ as a pass rusher…’good’ or ‘OK’ but nothing special.

It might be that Karlaftis added weight and really slowed down. He went to the 2022 NFL Combine at 266 pounds, which I am led to believe he played around 250+ pounds as a freshman in 2019…when he appeared quicker, and his output/edge numbers were better/best of his career. He skipped being timed at the Combine, but did other things…and he probably skipped for good reason – a 4.78 Pro Day 40-time is not great, and it might be worse, it might be a 4.8+ with the Pro Day fluff added in. He totally blew off the three-cone, adding to my concerns.

‘Too slow’ might be the easy answer to why Karlaftis isn’t racking sacks at a pace you’d hope/expect for a top prospect…14.0 sacks in 26 games for a guy going after the backfield every single snap is ‘good’/solid, for college, but it’s not like ‘wow’! Ole Miss’s Sam Williams had 12.5 sacks in his 2021 season alone, in 13 games. Why isn’t Sam Williams thought of on a level with Karlaftis? There is no comparison on tape…Williams is much better, and he’s just one example (and I know Williams has some other ‘issues’).

The more I look, the more I see Karlaftis is just a solid athlete who is trying to squeeze every ounce he can out of a fairly mediocre (for the NFL) body. Karlaftis doesn’t have the body definition or natural athleticism that most/all the top 5-10 edge rushers have. He might just be a neat college pass rusher who will be lost in the shuffle in the NFL.

Karlaftis is bottom 25-33% of the top 10-15 edge rushers in height, speed, bench, short shuttle. Why should I get excited about this prospect? Yes, he tries really hard. Great effort. Yes, he’s a great kid – good character, smart, hard working. He’s going to give you all he’s got – but, in the end, his best isn’t going to be good enough.

In the end, Karlaftis is a too slow edge at 266 pounds…or maybe a bit quicker at 255 (let’s say) but loses more power/frame/mass, which for all his supposed working out – he has poor muscle definition and a low bench press as it is.

17.0 TFLs as a freshman put him on the map, but outside of that we got lower sack production that season, and much weaker 2021 junior year and then a weak 40-time, weak bench, weak shuttle time, and a body that just doesn’t compare to the more natural, gifted edge rushers in this draft.

Karlaftis is going to have to outwork everyone to ‘make it’ but I think all his hard work will get him to mediocre/useful/rotational at best. He’s not a bust…but I don’t see a star in the making. The tools are just not comparable with the other top guys at DE in this draft. Ten years ago, he would’ve been a top 10 overall prospect…but not in 2022, where DEs look like, move like/run like high-end running backs now. 

George Karlaftis, Through the Lens of Our DE Scouting Algorithm:

 -- 2019 #3 in the Big Ten in TFLs (17) and #10 in sacks (7.5)…not in the top 10 in either sacks or TFLs in 2021, in a full schedule/season.

 -- Of all the Combine invitees classified as ‘edge’/DE prospects, whether at the Combine or a Pro Day, Karlaftis ran the 5th slowest 40-time (4.78) among them.

 -- Tied for the 4th lowest bench press (21 reps) among that same group.

  -- One solo tackle in a game in seven of his last 13 games.

2022 NFL Combine/Pro Day:

6’3.6”/266

10.25” hands, 33.25” arms

4.78 40-time, 2.69 20-time, 1.65 10-time

38” vertical, 21 bench reps, 10’1” broad

4.36 shuttle, skipped all three-cone

The Historical DE Prospects to Whom George Karlaftis Most Compares Within Our System:

I am making it seem like Karlaftis is a terrible prospect; he is not. He’s just not showing any signs of a franchise edge guy. Everywhere you look at his data says there’s limitations here. He gives a great effort. He can hold his own on the edge. I just see more of a backup/rotational edge rusher here.

MAYBE if he cuts down to near 250 pounds, he picks up his speed and has a better go of it in the league…but that’s a big ‘if’, for the cost.

*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL DE.

All of the DE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Power-Strength Metrics = A combination of several measurements. An attempt to classify the DE prospect as more of a battle-in-the-trenches type of DE, a 'bull-rusher', and/or a DE prospect who has some DT capabilities.

Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements. A unique measuring system to look for DEs who profile more as speed-rush, stand-up DEs, and/or possible OLBs.

Pass-Rusher Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify whether a particular DE is likely to achieve high sack totals in the NFL. We know the 'system'/scheme the DE goes on to play in has a part in future success...but so do the player's skills and performance history. "You can't keep a good man/DE down," we'd like to think.

Tackling Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the DE as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles. Lower-scoring DEs in this subcategory tend to be more pure pass-rushers/specialists. This is also our attempt to quantify, if it's possible, the 'toughness' of a player.

2022 NFL Draft Outlook:

I’m thinking he’s gonna fall out of any top 15-20 range pick overall. Could be a #21-32 grab because some coach likes the ‘cut of his jib’. I wouldn’t be surprised if he fell into the early 2nd-round…where everyone will then claim he’s a ‘draft steal’…because we’re so conditioned to seeing him top 15 through the process.

If I’m an NFL GM, I’m not interested…not at the price. Too many other as good or better DE/edge prospects out there.

NFL Outlook:   

Fringe starter/rotational/backup level player. We’re all whipped up by the draft process, so he’s a ‘name’ of some excitement/acceptance right now…a ‘name’ we’ll forget in 1-2 years. But he’ll stick around the league because he’s OK and works hard.