Leading up to the NFL Combine week, I go through 20-30 minutes of scouting preview work on each prospect set to attend -- I watch a couple game tapes and look over some of their career performance data, etc., and then I give each prospect a pre-event scouting grade for the NFL based on that brief look. For some attendees, I’ve spent an extended scouting time on them already from preview scouting them and then observing them at the Senior Bowl week.
After we get all the official Combine measurables and times, etc., I will complete a post-Combine grade for all attendees and then start to run our scouting analytics (from statistical grading) on those who did all the workouts at the Combine, for the others we have to wait for their Pro Day data.
The Combine (and Pro Days) are key data points to know which prospects to study deeper and file full scouting reports on pre-and-post Draft. Our computer scouting models will give analytic grades on approx. 100 RB prospects for this draft (and, ultimately, we’ll run grades on approx. 600+ overall prospects for this draft).
This pre-and-post Combine preview is a very brief look for me, as a scout, to continue to build my database and scouting notes for the weeks and months ahead, and to then focus in on certain prospects that are jumping at me from the early preview. The Combine previews are a first, sometimes second or third look (for me) at a prospect attending -- but my impressions/grading can and will change as we go through the year-long process of scouting these guys right up through the NFL preseason.
After a January-February preview study, here are my impressions, grades, and ranking of each position going into the 2023 NFL Combine (except O-Line, we’ll look at OLs after the Combine).
The Quarterbacks…
QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (post-Combine: A+/A, pre-Combine grade: A+/A)
2022: 66.3%, 283.7 pass yds per game, 41 TDs/6 INTs
6’3”/214
Projected 40-time: 4.9+
Projected 3-Cone: 7.2+
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 10
Post-Combine Comments:
Did what he had to do -- skipped the speed/agility times (not his game) but threw the ball well and measured in as expected with good height/size and 10” hands.
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Pre-Combine Comments:
He’s so good…discount Joe Burrow, which is not a slam…it means he’s elite. I think he’s got a lot of Burrow in him -- just great at what he does. Go watch his game against Georgia and you’ll see (arguably) the best QB performance, in context of the opponent/stage, that I may have ever seen.
Full scouting report posted on FFM.
NFL Comp? = Joe Burrow hopeful
Stroud vs. Georgia: https://youtu.be/kYGrwTMfxZY
QB Will Levis, Kentucky (post-Combine: A-, pre-Combine grade: A-/B+)
(Post-SB Grade: B, Pre-SB Grade: B)
2022: 65.4%, 218.7 pass yds, 19 TDs/10 INTs, -107 rushing yds (11g)
6’4”/229
Projected 40-time: 4.7+
Projected 3-Cone: 7.1+
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 10
Post-Combine Comments:
Came in a touch taller than expected, which is a plus, and has the biggest hands of the Combine QBs (10 5/8ths”). Physically, is what the NFL wants…with a cannon arm. His throwing ability got overshadowed by Anthony Richardson, but they’re both ‘A+’ arms…just the media has decided to LOVE Richardson (post-Combine) and downplay Levis...as they do every draft, picking and choosing things purely on emotion.
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Post-SB comments:
Ultimately, Levis declined to attend. Status unaffected.
He’s arguably the best QB in this draft…the most NFL-styled/look QB in the class…and he can play. He could be elite.
Full scouting report posted on FFM.
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Pre-SB comments:
Our full report on Levis is already posted.
Levis should show just fine at the Senior Bowl, but he’s also had so many nagging injuries in the 2022 season -- he might go for the interviews but not play…or have one practice in shorts/t-shirt and be done.
NFL Comp? = Aaron Rodgers/Andrew Luck-ish type profile.
Highlights package: https://youtu.be/lEeFMkUk4W0
QB Anthony Richardson, Florida (post-Combine: A-, pre-Combine grade: A/B/C)
2022: 53.8%, 212.4 pass yds per game, 17 TDs/9 INTs…54.5 rush yds per game and 6 rush TDs (12g)
6’4”/235
Actual 40-time: 4.43
Projected 3-Cone: 7.0 +/-
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 10
Post-Combine Comments:
Put on a show at the Combine and got himself squarely in the discussion for best QB prospect of the class. Possibly the most perfectly constructed human to be an NFL QB there ever has been -- the size-speed-arm combo is surreal. But the top QBs throughout history are not the great physical specimens…there’s more to it than that.
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Pre-Combine Comments:
Sometimes I watch Richardson and think he’s too raw for the NFL…then other times/plays I’ll watch him and think he’s the best QB in the 2023 NFL Draft. He’s the kind of QB who overthrows a simple short pass and then throws a BB/dime 50+ yards downfield on the money while standing flat-footed in the pocket…with the flick of a wrist. And not just 1-2 times a season he hits these throws, I mean like every time he throws downfield it seems to be surreal.
It would not shock me if he were the best QB of this class, in the end…or if he never could get consistent and draws a bad defensive-minded coach and never developed into a major starter.
Full scouting report posted on FFM.
NFL Comp? = More Josh Allen than Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts.
Highlights package: https://youtu.be/1JuZdq8iW-I
QB Max Duggan, TCU (post-Combine: C+, pre-Combine grade: C+/C)
(Post-SB Grade: C, Pre-SB Grade: C/C-)
2022: 63.7%, 246.5 pass yds per game, 32 TDs/8 INTs, 423 rush yds, 9 rush TDs
6’1”/207
Actual 40-time: 4.52
Actual 3-Cone: 7.26
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 150
Post-Combine Comments:
Continues to be the overlooked sleeper of this class. A ‘plus’ arm and a shocking 4.52 40-time…2nd-best in the class. Some NFL team is going to get a MAJOR value here.
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Post-SB comments:
Was voted the top QB for his team for practice week…and ran as the #1 guy all week, but then did not start the actual game and barely played. I have no idea why -- but it looked like a slap in the face. Speaking of things that didn’t impress me…American Team Head Coach Luke Getsy did ‘zero’ for me listening to him talk to the players (the few times he did) and observing his coaching decisions. Really disappointing.
Duggan continues to look like a legit NFL starting QB to me…but continues to get dismissed by the system/scouts.
Came in an inch smaller, and 6 pounds lighter than listed…not helpful for his scouting/NFL acceptance. But he has the arm of a 6’3”-6’4”/220 guy.
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Pre-SB comments:
I am starting my Duggan deeper studies soon after this SB preview reaction. But what I’ve seen from Duggan so far, I’ve been impressed…and I didn’t think I would be. He is a pretty talented QB prospect…not just a ‘good college QB’. He’s not a future star power NFL QB, but he looks like he can jump right into NFL action and be pretty solid…as most of the good college QBs can nowadays.
NFL Comp? = I hate to do it, but has some Andy Dalton in him (former TCU star)
Highlights package: https://youtu.be/g7tS0vgdxcA
QB Bryce Young, Alabama (post-Combine: C+, pre-Combine grade: C+/C)
2022: 64.5% 290.8 pass yds per game, 22 TDs/13 INTs
5’10”/204
Projected 40-time: 4.75+
Projected 3-Cone: 7.1+
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 10
Post-Combine Comments:
Gained (probably) water weight to weigh-in over 200 pounds…then wore a sweatshirt and backpack all Combine to hide his physique. He tries to tease his hair up as high as he can, but he got caught at the Combine with a 5’10” height…couldn’t fake that.
Young has NFL QB skills, but none of the QB physical traits the NFL wants. The media will harp on every smaller QB for years, and in this draft -- but when their betrothed Young is super small, then size doesn’t matter and we’re all idiots for thinking it.
He’s not going to e the #1 or #2 QB taken…maybe #3…should be #4-5.
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Pre-Combine Comments:
Young can play QB in the NFL…he’s a pretty good vision and decent arm to hang, but he’s not the elite he’s being made out to be. He’s (somewhat) propelled by not only the Alabama name…but their great O-Line and surrounding weaponry…like Tua and Mac were. Young is closer to Tua in that they’re competent, but they are not hang in the pocket and fire lasers downfield from a muddy pocket -- they have to get rid of the ball quickly to avoid a crowded pocket. Tua is an ace at that…Young not as gifted as Tua in the quick hitter short game.
Young has an average to decent arm overall…OK when there’s no pressure and he can step in, but a drop-off in arm strength/whip when he is pressured a bit and has to throw flat-footed or off script. And if you think Tua is an injury concern on size…you have to be a little worried about Young at sub-200 pounds.
I don’t think Young is terrible…he’s just not optimal, not the best QB prospect in this class…not in the top 3 for sure.
NFL Comp? = Somewhere between a lesser Drew Brees and a Taylor Heinicke…a shorter/smaller Mac Jones?
QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (post-Combine: C-/D+, pre-Combine grade: C-/D+)
(Post-SB Grade: C-/D+, Pre-SB Grade: C+/C)
2022: 69.6%, 285.0 yds, 27 TDs/2 INT, 430 rush yds (11g)
6’3”/217
Projected 40-time: 4.65+
Projected 3-Cone: 7.0+
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 100
Post-Combine Comments:
Still rehabbing off his ACL. I don’t know why he’s nationally ranked ahead of Max Duggan.
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Post-SB comments:
Hooker’s full scouting report is posted on FFM.
Hooker attended the Senior Bowl but did not participate in on-field action (ACL rehab) but did go on the field to observe and was in the meeting rooms to learn. Kudos to that, but in my deeper study…I did not like what I saw from his skillset/tape that much.
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Pre-SB comments:
Tore his ACL in late 2022 season…or he might be a 1st-round prospect already. He may become a 1st-rounder anyway. 58 TDs/5 INTs as a passer the past two seasons. He’s been excellent since arriving at Tennessee from Va Tech in 2021.
A very good arm, shows accuracy, has good size, possesses decent movement skills and is very comfortable in the pocket. He has a lot of tools, and his excellent SEC performance (except against Georgia) should warrant a top 25-50 overall draft selection.
Doing a deeper dive on Hooker during Senior Bowl week. Hooker will likely attend the interviews, etc., but not participate on-field due to the injury.
NFL Comp? = A slower Deshaun Watson.
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA (post-Combine: C-/D+, pre-Combine grade: C-/D+)
2022: 69.6%, 243.8 pass yds per game, 27 TDs/10 INTs, 49.6 rush yds per game, 12 rush TDs
6’2”/203
Actual 40-time: 4.56
Actual 3-Cone: 7.28
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 225
Post-Combine Comments:
Ran a good 40-time but was shockingly behind Max Duggan’s 40-time…with a disappointing 7.28 three-cone, also behind Duggan’s three-cone. Still, DTR is a better QB than given credit with the ‘good’ (not great) mobility skills.
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Pre-Combine Comments:
An underrated QB prospect for this draft. DTR is not just a running QB who occasionally throws…he has a live arm, can read the field well and all his passing ability is enhanced by his very real threat of running…he’s like a decent RB when on the run. I was surprisingly pleased with what I saw. He’s not an elite QB talent as a passer, but he has skills…and they will be boosted when defenses worry about his running. He’ll make a great backup who can plug in well in an emergency but also can take a few years to develop into an NFL starter, perhaps.
NFL Comp? = A better passer version of Justin Fields but is a smaller/thinner athlete who doesn’t run elite like 2022/Fields. A watered down, smaller Fields.
Highlights package: https://youtu.be/sDv4hpIvmoA
QB Stetson Bennett, Georgia (post-Combine: C-/D+, pre-Combine grade: C-/D+)
2022: 68.1%, 275.2 pass yards per game, 27 TDs/7 INTs
5’11”/193
Actual 40-time: 4.67
Projected -Cone: 7.0+
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 275
Post-Combine Comments:
Came in taller than Bryce Young…but 12 pounds lighter, however Stetson couldn’t fluff his weight higher to con the weigh-in like Bryce because Stetson was going to go participate in the drills and could not hide his fluffed-up weight in a sweatshirt and backpack like Bryce wore all the time down on the field NOT participating.
Bennett can play. Not an elite, but dude can play and has better feet and arm than Young.
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Pre-Combine Comments:
The guy can play QB…he’s a smart/savvy read-the-field-and-throw accurately QB. His problem is he’s so small for the NFL…5’11” (short) and 195 pounds (not sturdy) with an average or below average (in a muddy situation) arm -- it’s hard to invest in but make no mistake…he can play.
Why Bennett is considered a weak prospect, due to his size (5’11”/195), and Bryce Young (6’0”/194) is the consensus #1 overall pick without ANY of those same concerns -- it’s everything wrong about football scouting and the football media.
NFL Comp? = Smaller, lesser arm ability Brock Purdy
QB Tanner McKee, Stanford (post-Combine: C-/D+, pre-Combine grade: C-/D+)
2022: 62.0%, 245.6 pass yds per game, 13 TDs/8 INTs (12g)
6’6”/231
Projected 40-time: 4.9+
Actual 3-Cone: 7.22
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 150
Post-Combine Comments:
Did OK at the Combine. He still has a pulse for the top 100-150 overall for the draft.
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Pre-Combine Comments:
There might be something here. It’s hard to tell because Stanford’s team has gotten so dreadful/bottom of the barrel with coaching/plan/blocking that any QB would look stupid playing for their life every other snap.
McKee has size/height and a funny, gangly, hitchy throwing motion…but he usually identifies the right receiver and delivers it on the money…when he has any time to do so.
NFL Comp? = New age Mike Glennon
QB Clayton Tune, Houston (post-Combine: D+, pre-Combine grade: D+)
(Post-SB Grade: D+, Pre-SB Grade: D+)
2022: 67.3%. 313.4 pass yds per game, 40 TD/10 INT, 544 rush yds, 5 rush TDs (13g)
6’2”/220
Actual 40-time: 4.64
Actual 3-Cone: 6.89
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 200
Post-Combine Comments:
Helped himself a lot at the Combine by showing the NFL that he has a legit NFL body to work with. A ‘best in class’ 6.89 three-cone and a solid 4.64 40-time at 220 pounds with a strong arm and NFL size -- he got himself an early day three look in the draft, potentially.
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Post-SB comments:
Accounted for himself well here. Throws a hot ball…strong arm. Still, a bit too inaccurate and not totally comfortable looking, but it could’ve been the nerves of the moment and he can move to ‘comfortable’ in time. There’s some hope here.
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Pre-SB comments:
Tune is OK. A typical modern era ‘good’ college QB -- comfortable in the pocket and knows how to run the offense, but for NFL purposes he’s got an average to below average arm. His college offense was very ‘free’ and taking deep shots, which he had the benefit of an ace WR (Dell) to throw to, so Tune put up numbers -- but he won’t run that type of offense in the NFL. He’s college good, NFL fringe.
NFL Comp? = Cooper Rush-like, but with better feet.
QB Aidan O'Connell, Purdue (post-Combine: D+, pre-Combine grade: C-/D+)
2022: 64.1%, 290.8 pass yds per game, 22 TDs/13 INTs
6’3”/213
Projected 40-time: 4.85+
Projected 3-Cone: 7.1+
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 250
Post-Combine Comments:
There’s still hope of a legit solid NFL backup here…his arm strength may hurt him with draft evaluators initially.
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Pre-Combine Comments:
Ross Jacobs scouted O’Connell for the East-West Shrine, and he was right on the money -- O’Connell reminds us of a young/college Kirk Cousins…a lesser Cousins. A surprisingly strong arm, but sometimes floats the ball too often…but when he steps into it, he’s got a nice mechanics and velocity throw. He’s a little too raw…too much throwing into tight coverage but he also shows some next level instinct/ability to read the field and make the right throws. He’ll likely be an NFL backup…but one that won’t embarrass himself when thrown into a game at the next level.
NFL Comp? = Discount Kirk Cousins.
QB Jake Haener, Fresno State (post-Combine: D+, pre-Combine grade: D+)
(Post-SB Grade: D+, Pre-SB Grade: D+)
2022: 72.0%, 289.6 pass yds per game, 20 TDs/3 INT (10g)
6’0”/207
Projected 40-time: 4.85+
Actual 3-Cone: 7.01
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 200
Post-Combine Comments:
Haener looked better when he was compared to the weak Senior Bowl QB group…but up against the big boys at the Combine, Haener got lost. He has NFL-worthy hopes…as a trusted backup who has decent passer skills right away, if thrown into play via emergency as a rookie.
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Post-SB comments:
He showed that he has the arm and instincts to play at the next level. He’ll get Brock Purdy comps all draft season. I don’t know that he is THAT good…but I didn’t think Purdy would be AS good as he was right away either.
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Pre-SB comments:
Knows how to play QB/is very comfortable running an offense. Quick release, decent arm/velocity on passes. Savvy. But ran a freewheeling passing game in college…the kind of game he won’t run in the pros. For a pro style NFL offense, Haener is a bit smaller with an average arm making all the throws. He’s not-nothing, but no star potential or serious NFL starter talent here.
NFL Comp? = A cross of Taylor Heinicke and Josh Rosen.
QB Tyson Bagent, Shepherd (post-Combine: D/D+, pre-Combine grade: D)
(Post-SB Grade: D, Pre-SB Grade: D+)
2022: 305.3 pass yds per game, 41 TDs/8 INTs (15g)
6’3”/213
Actual 40-time: 4.79
Actual 3-Cone: 6.95
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 300
Post-Combine Comments:
A nice showing here for Bagent. He’s going to get himself drafted but he’s such a ‘project’ for an NFL team that most don’t have the time to mess with for that long. His dad being a ‘pageant dad’ isn’t going to help his cause either. Bagent threw the ball well. He could be something in 5+ years, but you can’t waste a draft pick on that.
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Post-SB comments:
Bagent, overall, accounted for himself well. He didn’t look nearly as nervous as you’d think he would be in this spot. He didn’t show any real passer fire/savvy/gunslinging, but he did show controlled QB play and ability to learn and he was never really rattled…just his talent would get overwhelmed by the defenders.
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Pre-SB comments:
See full scouting report on FFM.
A D2 star, who had a license to throw…he shows some comfort/skills but could be way over his head in Mobile. Can’t wait to see this D3 star face D1 defensive talent. He might shock some people, including me.
NFL Comp? = Keith Wenning, fringe NFL QB for few years
QB Jaren Hall, BYU (post-Combine: D-/F+, pre-Combine grade: D-)
(Post-SB Grade: D-, Pre-SB Grade: D+)
2022: 66.0%, 264.3 pass yds per game, 31 TD/6 INT, 350 rush yds
6’0”/211
Projected 40-time: 4.6+
Projected 3-Cone: 7.0+
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 250
Post-Combine Comments:
The media’s beloved sleeper QB is dying and going to UDFA heaven.
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Post-SB comments:
Total disappointment. Compared to the other QBs, Hall looked small with a weak arm…and no real instincts for the next level. He slowly fell out of the #1 spot for his team (Haener took over) and then he just disappeared for the game, leaving the team with just two QBs.
I think he could fall all the way out of the draft with this performance in Mobile.
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Pre-SB comments:
Below average size, below average arm. He knows how to play QB, but he doesn’t have the physical or arm tools to be drafted highly or taken seriously for NFL teams. He’ll be a journeyman QB who needs to grind his way to a roster somehow over the year.
NFL Comp? = Lesser Ian Book
QB Malik Cunningham, Louisville (post-Combine: F, pre-Combine grade: F)
(Post-SB Grade: F, Pre-SB Grade: n/a)
2022: 62.4%, 8 TDs/5 INTs, 156.8 passing yards and 56.0 rushing yards per game with 12 rush TDs (10g)
6’0”/188
Actual 40-time: 4.53
Projected 3-Cone: 6.9+
Consensus mainstream NFL Draft ranking overall: top 300
Post-Combine Comments:
As fast as Max Duggan, but two inches shorter, 15 pounds lighter and with no passer ability. He should go right to the XFL.
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Post-SB comments:
Bless his heart…he’s never going to see an NFL regular-season field. He cannot pass the ball well at all. He runs just ‘OK’ and is rail thin. Good luck in the USFL or XFL.
NFL Comp? = A worse Kellen Mond but can run the ball some at least.
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Pre-SB comments:
Late addition, so I didn’t have the chance to preview.
