NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: WR Tee Higgins, Clemson

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Now, we know why Tee Higgins skipped everything that was timed at the NFL Combine…

He cited ‘too short amount of prep time’ as his reason why he didn’t do much of anything at the Combine, which sounded silly and hurt his draft stock right then and there, but the real reason was – he was going to test poorly, and he and his agent knew it – because he’s not a real high-end (or even ‘average’) NFL athlete at wide receiver. Higgins is not the type of athlete who warrants the ridiculous top 3-5 WR prospect ranking in this class that he was getting from the analysts and scouts.

A 40-time in the 4.55 range at his Pro Day probably means a troubling 4.6+. He also posted ultra-slow 10 and 20-yard splits along with a horrific 31” vertical, and a scary (bad) 4.5+ shuttle time. We shouldn’t be debating Higgins’ place among the top five WR prospects – we should be making people prove why he’s not going to be a spectacular bust.

If Tee Higgins played for Virginia…he wouldn’t be considered a top 25 WR prospect in this draft, but Higgins played for Clemson and analysts actually watched their games (because they were in the CFB playoffs a lot), so they KNOW how great Higgins is! What a joke! He’s not deserving of his prospect standing.

He’s the same old story – tall, competent, college-athletic WR does some nice things against equal/lesser opponents with the benefit of working on a dominant team with a high-end QB. When Higgins faced real teams in the CFB playoffs…not so dominant…just ‘OK’ or ‘there’.

4-53-1 vs. Notre Dame in the 2018 Final Four

3-81-1 vs. Alabama in the 2018 title game

4-33-0 vs. Ohio State in the 2019 Final Four

3-52-0 vs. LSU in the 2019 title game

And it’s not just a matter of cherry picking numbers…you watch the tape of Higgins against Ohio State and LSU in 2019, when he was ‘the man’, and you can see the problems that were exposed at his Pro Day – not enough juice in his legs to beat high-end corners going deep, doesn’t have the body or cut-ability to work the interior nor speed to pull away from coverage to get open, and he’s not a bubble screen guy either. He basically has one gift – tall and long arms, but that won’t cut it in the NFL because he has almost no vertical (31”) to go with it, nor the body (super-lanky/thin) to fight NFL defenders off, or enough speed to get by anyone.

Higgins has several ‘NFL bust’ markers on tape and in the data. He just isn’t that good. His best scouting attribute is ‘guy people know because he played at Clemson’.

It’s not that Higgins will ‘bust’ because he’s terrible at football. It’s that he’s just too slow for the pros, and too slender of frame…his deep ball game just doesn’t translate well to NFL starter status. Sure, he can make a high point catch in a game here and there but overall, he’s going to get lost – this is another scouting hoax a la Riley Ridley and J.J Arcega-Whiteside.

There’s no sense really slamming my fist on the desk on it or typing a thousand more words about it. There are other more interesting, lesser-covered guys for us to explore versus wasting more time here. Higgins is an empty prospect and any NFL team that drafts him deserves what they get.

Tee Higgins, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

When I look at Higgins’s statistical output…aside from a few big stat games against lesser defenses, he really didn’t dominate college football at all – despite working with a great QB/offense/team that was utterly dominant in its conference. 

If I take away his big game vs. Virginia in 2019 (9-182-3), Higgins averaged 3.6 catches per game in 2019 otherwise.

He’s had five 100+ yard games in his last 22 college games…and nine games under 55 yards. 

None of his 100+ yard games came against a top 40 college defense. 

His averages in his four CFB playoff games: a mediocre 3.5 rec., 54.8 yards, 0.50 TDs per game. 

I can’t emphasize this enough – his numbers are ‘meh’ despite getting to work with a top QB prospect on a team that dominated its conference foes. He’s a nice college WR on a great college team…end of story. 

2020 Pro Day and NFL Combine Data:

6’3.5”/216, 9 ¼” hands, 34 1/8” arms

4.55 40-time, 2.75 20-yard, 1.66 10-yard (Pro Day times)

4.58 shuttle

31.0” vertical

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Tee Higgins Most Compares Within Our System:

Higgins tracks with former ‘tall’ WR prospects who had cups of coffee in the NFL, had moments of hope but ultimately their athletic deficiencies outweighed their nice catch radius. And Higgins may be the least athletic guy on this list. 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, and rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance. Everything combining to project catch-abilities for the next level.

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

People who have Higgins as a 1st-round mock should have their scouting license revoked. I don’t think he’ll go 2nd-round either. If A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf fell to the 3rd-round, then Higgins is going 3rd or 4th. I’ll say 3rd, but I would argue he shouldn’t even be drafted at all.

If I were an NFL GM, I would not touch Higgins and I’d just sit back and laugh when some other team wasted a pick on him. 

NFL Outlook:   

Will hang around the NFL for a bit, on the name hype from college. Will make a play or two in the preseason and get people’s hopes up. Might be OK for a moment tossed into regular season play. Ultimately, we’ll forget about Higgins quickly and move on with our lives. 

3/15/2020