NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: TE/WR Juwan Johnson, Oregon

*Our TE grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

**Our TE formulas had some slight changes in the offseason—an adjustment to better identify and value TE prospects that are smaller physically and are primed for the era ahead...the era of Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker-type TEs. Our historical grades will have changed some on various prospects as well, to show their grades by comparison. 

I’ve been looking forward to this because I’m a geek for WR-to-TE convert prospects. Juwan Johnson is a 6’4”/230 wide receiver by trade and as listed for the NFL Combine. It always amazes me the lack of vision with these guys and/or their handlers – Johnson wound up as a forgettable WR prospect in all the WR drills…but he would have been the talk/curiosity of the TE drills. He worked with the WRs and was lost in the shuffle.

The NFL is looking at Johnson more as a TE hopeful than a WR reality.  That’s not the case with Chase Claypool, but it is with Johnson, and we’ll to get to why in a moment. First, we have to hit some background for the setup.

Johnson began his career at Penn State. After a 54 catch, 701 yards, 1 TD sophomore season (2017), with his size and athleticism – it was nothing but blue skies and NFL attention ahead. But things crashed from there…

Johnson’s 2018 was mired in a ‘lower body’ injury (that was never really specified). He missed games. He played in games without seeing targets. He dropped a few passes. I think, in reality, he was quasi-benched…things had gotten quite grim. He took a very big step back in his junior/2018 season.

For 2019, Johnson graduate transferred (was an all-Academic in the Big Ten at times in his career) to Oregon. He quickly got dinged up again in the preseason and missed the first 4 games of the season. He made his Oregon debut in conference play and had two so-so games, and then hit USC with a 7 catch, 106 yards, 3 TD effort and the hype train started up again. From there his final five games ranged from OK to good, but nothing great…not like his USC game.

Despite the rocky college career, Johnson’s size and athleticism got him an NFL Combine invite…and he didn’t disappoint with a 4.58 40-time and 6.94 three-cone. Those were ‘OK’ Combine times for a wide receiver prospect but would have been the 2nd-fastest 40-time and three-cone among tight ends. Johnson kinda missed a window at the Combine.

His career is shaping up to be a ‘missed window. All the physical gifts you could want but between injury and suspect hands…and suspect desire to play the game – Johnson’s prospect stock is falling.

Where you can be bullish on Johnson is – when everything is right, he’s a big, quick, big catch radius, sometimes dominant-looking receiver. But those moments are few and far between.

If you could assure me Johnson was going to be always healthy, always engaged, and his hands were capable of improvement – he’s a top 125 overall draft pick prospect. But his history is more sketchy, more up and down than reliable. His draft stock is tied to his size and athleticism…and his physical tools are more ‘OK/good’ as a WR prospect and more ‘intriguing’ as a TE prospect.

I see fast feet to get open. I sometimes see brilliant catches with his big hands and decent high point catch ability. I see some pop after the catch to outrun defenders. There are flashes of something here…including high quality of character/IQ. But there are also many missed games, key drops, and hands that don’t look super smooth.

I also see a thinner frame that a team is going to try to build a tight end on. It’s going to take some work building his body and trying to transition. I’m not sure he can do it…and if he does it could take years, and NFL teams don’t have that kind of time.

There is a real raw piece of clay to try to mold here, but with the talent flood from the college ranks that is so developed and polished and experienced – there’s not as much appetite or opportunity for guys like Johnson to try to convert positions. He’s a good kid, and I hope it works out for him…but it’s going to be an uphill battle.

Juwan Johnson, Through the Lens of Our TE Scouting Algorithm:

Johnson had 3 TDs in that 2019 game against USC, that I previously mentioned. He only had 3 other TD in his other 37 games played. Johnson did not dominate college football, really, outside of that one game. 

Flashes of hope: his final four games of 2017 and his opening game in 2018, a five-game stretch, he was coming on – 5.6 catches, 77.7 yards per game (with no spike game driving the averages). 

His final four college games: 3.0 catches, 42.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game…low impact final run. 

Erratic data is the hallmark of the Johnson prospect case.

2020 NFL Draft measurables…

6’4”/230. 10.5” hands, 34 ¼” arms

4.58 40-time, 2.68 20-yard, 1.62 10-yard

4.37 shuttle, 6.94 three-cone

18 bench reps, 33” vertical, 10’4” broad jump

The Historical TE Prospects to Whom Juwan Johnson Most Compares Within Our System:

I was thinking it before running the report, but Gerald Everett has good logic as a comp here – thinner framed in college, more WR-like, but did bulk up to more TE-thickness and has had some usefulness in the NFL. Not a star but useful. Johnson has more receiving panache but hands not as good as Everett’s.

Maybe he could remake his body and be an H-back/TE/WR-like hybrid in an offense looking for it. 

My fear is the ‘hands’ issue might catch up with him before that. 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a TE prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of TEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL TE.

All of the TE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

**The ‘TE-Reed’ score is in honor of Jordan Reed’s 2015 season…looking at TEs in a different manner—the smaller, speedy receiving threats.

“Speed-Agility Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Power-Strength Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Hands Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and project the combination of data for receiving success at the next level.

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

I see Juwan Johnson as mostly a 7th-round or UDFA prospect. I think there are too many red flags for him not to be 7th-round or undrafted. More likely undrafted.

If I were an NFL GM, I would not use a draft pick on Johnson…but I would make some effort to get him into camp as a UDFA player and see if he can learn fast or if the flashes were real from college, and he’s maturing as a player and I got lucky with the dice roll.

NFL Outlook:   

Total crapshoot. If I had to bet – he comes in as a UDFA this summer for some team, gets put on a practice squad…and 2-3 years from now he’s disappeared from the NFL landscape. 

3/22/2020