NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: RB Anthony McFarland, Maryland (QH)

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

Our Quick Hit (QH) scouting reports are a modified/shorter version of our full-scale reports. On these Quick Hits, I look at a lesser amount of tape and write a shorter amount of flowy words – these are usually designed more for sleeper prospects that I want to get more acquainted with and if something really jumps out, I’ll go deeper. It’s just me trying to get in and get out and deliver the pertinent notes to you for your consideration and for review later if they start to make waves in a year or two.

I’ll do a chunk of these pre-Draft and then more after the Draft, going through the players that caught my attention in the draft (because of how high they were taken) or that I stumble across in training camp or the preseason that catch my eye.

Most of my notes on these Quick Hits will be short and sweet bullet points versions of our full-scale reports. Enjoy…

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I instantly fell in love with Anthony McFarland after previewing some of his tape in the summer of 2019. I had him as an RB prospect of high interest before 2019 season. Then he put up a ‘meh’ 2019 season, statistically, for what I was expecting…but he did get an NFL Combine invite and ran well there and has garnered some top 150 overall draft attention.

He was initially one of our higher rated RB prospects for 2020, ahead of the national consensus rankings by quite a distance. Why do the computer and I see things differently than the consensus on McFarland? Are we wrong? Let’s take a look…

BACKGROUND…

 -- Was a top 2017 high school recruit back in 2016…a four-star prospect who was being pursued by the likes of Alabama and Georgia (and Alabama had a strong inside track on him). But then in his high school senior preseason, McFarland broke his fibula and missed his entire senior season. The recruiting cooled on him a bit off that, and he ended up committing to his home state Maryland.

 -- Redshirted 2017.

 -- Split time with several (talented) RBs his freshman/2018 year but then pushed into the starring role late in the season…most notably destroying top ranked Ohio State with a ‘wow’ performance of 21 carries for 298 yards rushing and 2 TDs (in a near major upset).

 -- Was expected to be the starter/star in 2019 and was doing well through five games then got a high ankle sprain, missed some time, came back not 100% and tailed off for several games until improving again at the very end of the season.  

 -- Bombed his Wonderlic testing and rumors of ‘immature’ and ‘a mess’ in interviews has started to surface. 

GAME TAPE AND RANDOM NOTES…

 -- Reminds me of a better Dalvin Cook as a runner. 5’8”/208 with much better speed – 4.44 40-time but is a tough/physical enough runner for his size…not a bruiser, but deceptively tough. He can work between the tackles fairly well.

 -- Excellent vision running the ball. Finds holes, can cut back into spaces and make yards where they may not have been. McFarland is not just fast at running straight, he flows and reads situations as well as any RB his size range.

 -- Very nice burst…once he finds the hole/space, he’ll punch it past defenders. Raymond Calais and Jonathan Taylor may be the only 2020 RB prospects better at ‘burst’ in this draft (to my eyes).

 -- Slippery, elusive runner…can make people miss in short space running inside.

 -- Better hands than given credit for…like really good hands. Would be an excellent satellite back, 3rd-down catcher like a smaller Alvin Kamara. He reminds me a bit of Kamara, quite frankly.

 -- Watch him against Ohio State as a freshman, on a very undermanned Maryland, and you’ll be convinced. Cut up tape available on YouTube.

Against OSU (10-1), less than a minute into the game…81-yard TD run. The very next drive for Maryland, McFarland popped a 75-yard TD run on the first play. Maryland sent this game to OT (and were robbed in general).

 -- I am concerned about the growing background concerns. I could see the potential for some issue in my background checks but then the bad Wonderlic (not ultra-critical for on-field for an RB, but worrisome that off-field hurts on-field at some point…or that he struggles with the playbook, etc.). His background is going to get him out of the top 100. 

Anthony McFarland, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

 -- Before his 21-298-2 game vs. Ohio State in 2018, McFarland broke out for 29 carries for 210 yards against Indiana. 

 -- First five games of 2019, before his high ankle sprain – 62 carries, 336 yards (5.4ypc), 7 rushing TDs, 7-69-1 receiving. 

Taking those five games and extrapolating to a 13-game season: 161 carries (12.4 carries per game), 874 yards, 18 rushing TDs, 18 catches, 179 rec. yards, 2.6 rec. TDs (20.6 TDs total). 

 -- His final 14 games of his career, including the games he was hurt/left early…

170 carries

1,134 rush yards

10 rush TDs (11 total TDs) 

 -- Seven career games with 11 or more carries…four 100+ yard rushing games, two of them were 200+ yard games. 

2020 NFL Combine Data:

5’8.1”/208, 8 7/8” hands, 30 3/8” arms

4.44 40-time, 2.65 20-yard, 1.59 10-yard

29.5” vertical, 9’8” broad jump

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Anthony McFarland Most Compares Within Our System:

I would say McFarland is a lesser Darrell Henderson, I could agree with the computer on that…but also wondering if he might be an equal/better Henderson had he stayed healthy in 2019 and stayed another year in college.

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics – then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search – runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect's receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills – it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score =  Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect's ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

Projecting as high as top 120 overall, and as low as top 200. He has a lot of hidden ‘lovers’ out there…he was not overrun/overused in college and his injuries were not serious/major to his athleticism ahead. And he can catch the ball really well, better than what he could show at Maryland. I thought he might be top 120 for sure, but the interview issues are a developing situation. 

If I were an NFL GM, I’m interested in McFarland as he falls…but not a priority. Too many other talented guys in his draft ranking range with much better backgrounds…Darrynton Evans and Raymond Calais come to mind.  

NFL Outlook:   

I true sleeper hiding in the wings. He has all the skills you want in a sub-210-pound RB prospect. If he goes top 100…he should get a chance quicker than not. If he goes 5th+ round then he’s buried, and his background check turned up some issues. There could be some uneasiness about his off-field and interview appearances not being ‘great’ (not doom, just ‘not great’). 

4/16/2020