NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: WR Jaelon Darden, North Texas

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Whenever NFL people compare prospects (to existing NFL players), one of the inevitable comps is any smaller, faster WR prospects being ‘Tyreek Hill like’ in some way shape or form. Tyreek is a gold standard WR prospect, so he draws comparisons for obvious reasons.

So, welcome 5’8”/170+ pound North Texas WR prospect Jaelon Darden into the ‘Tyreek-like’ discussion.

I still have a million WRs to dig through from D1 down to the FCS levels, so maybe someone’s out there I haven’t crossed paths with yet, but of all the WRs that I’ve seen glimpses or done deeper studies on back to summer of 2020 – Darden jumps to my mind as maybe one of the 1-2-3 closest to being Tyreek-like in the 2021 NFL draft.

…but he’s not quite like ‘Tyreek’.

Let me set the table before I give a lot of words on it…

5’8”/185, 4.29 40-time, 6.53 three-cone, 40.5” vertical = Tyreek Hill (2016 NFL Draft)

5’8”/170, 4.35-4.45 40-time, 6.5-6.7 three-cone, 37”+ Vert = Darden (my estimates 2021)

Words are one thing, but take a look at this background video to get a feel for what we’re talking about here…

Background/highlights: https://youtu.be/8K1mgPlIvTc

If you watch his video or go watch extended highlights, the reason he gets ‘Tyreek-like’ comps is because of those shake-and-bake moves in the open field. I don’t believe he has Tyreek-like breakaway speed/burst (though he’s fast) and Tyreek is doing his human joystick moves at 180+ pounds, while Darden is doing such things at around 170 pounds, I suspect. Still, Darden’s ability to stop and shift and Allen Iverson crossover move and ankle break on defenders in the open field is a gift he has that I don’t believe many/any will have from this class.

Three other comparisons of note…

1) They talk about how amazing/fast/breakaway Jaylen Waddle is, but Darden is probably going to match/beat Waddle in speed and agility times while coming in about an inch shorter and +/- 10 pounds lighter. Yet, Waddle is a top 15 WR for SEC-infatuated analysts and Darden isn’t on CBS’s (for example) top 300 players for the draft, although Darden is top 100-150 overall for other draft-centric websites.

2) People are comparing Darden to Darnell Mooney in some circles, and I understand it…but it’s not my favorite comp.

Mooney is slender like Darden and probably even faster but will probably be 2+ inches taller than Darden. Mooney is more like Diontae Johnson and Darden more Tyreek-ish. Actually, Darden reminds me more of a faster/more explosive Marquise Brown or an old school DeSean Jackson.

3) Everyone is like, OHHH Ja’Marr Chase is the best WR in this class because he was so amazingly productive in 2019!!!

6.0 rec., 127.1 yards, 1.42 TDs per game = Chase in 2019 with Joe Burrow (14 games)

8.2 rec., 132.2 yards, 2.11 TDs per game = Darden in 2020 (9 games)

BUT Darden played in the weak Conference USA!

Yeah, but Chase played WITH Joe Burrow…AND Chase was not the single WR defenses feared/focused on from his offense, so he had that luxury of being a part of a great ensemble that couldn’t be doubled – while most every one of Darden’s opponents was solely focused on trying to stop Darden.

…and Chase returned 0 punts in college. Darden returned 35 punts in his career, one for a TD.

OK, that’s the topside case for Darden to be included in a legit discussion as a WR prospect name to be discussed. But what do we really think about his NFL prospects?

Well, I’m dazzled by his cutback ability too. It’s pleasing to the eye, and I think it translates to NFL success. It’s a gift. It makes him ‘dangerous’. He has good, possibly great speed with stellar agility. And North Texas went after it…getting him the ball as much as they could.

But there are issues…

-I don’t see a lot of classic WR movement by Darden. He’s not running sharp routes and using his great feet to just cut open in a blink. Darden’s tape is more bubble screens, pop passes, bombs, and highlight reel moves after the catch making people miss.

Darden is showing more as ‘deep ball guy’, BUT he can learn the route running and have that advantage as he learns it in the pros…you ‘hope’. Tyreek Hill didn’t have any real WR skills at first in the NFL, beyond being faster than everyone and making everyone miss him in the open field. It took 2-3 years for Hill to become a real NFL WR, and he did so because he’s just faster than everyone so he could get open on anyone. Darden could be that, though I didn’t see it in college…but it can be learned, and he didn’t need it in college.

And to note…Darden’s routes in college were terrible. Always rounded off, not sharp…but we have to note that no one played up on him, so he had a ton of space to work with. He didn’t need to beat press or tight coverage often/at all.

-The more tape I watch, the more I say he’s not the next Tyreek. He’s too small to be there at this point. He might add 5-8 pounds of muscle and be a lesser version, but he’s not a sure-fire next Tyreek…just a contender, more pretender.

-Good hands, but not great hands…not like Darnell Mooney who has a ‘catches everything’ ability. Darden is reliable and good, but not special catching the ball to me at this point.

Darden was a 4-year player for North Texas, and he really took off the last two seasons…31 receiving TDs in his final 21 college games. Darden is personable and more low key a player. Nothing negative popped out in his background check for me. He’s the quintessential ‘they told me I was too small for D1 ball’, who made the analysts look bad in retrospect. Had Darden played for Alabama, he would probably be a top 25-50 overall prospect that people would excitedly discuss and make tons of YouTube videos about…instead, North Texas, Conference USA, and he’ll get ‘watch out for this kid’ (along with 50+ other WRs) by draft analysts on draft day.

The big, next step for Darden is his Pro Day – he could really turbocharge or reinforce his growing prospect status…or snuff it out. If he comes in close to 160-165 pounds and/or just runs in the 4.4s, then he’s going to fall from grace and be a deep day 3 draft sleeper. If he’s 170+ pounds and runs in the 4.3s, he might get into the top 100-125 overall in the draft as a coveted weapon (not all-around ace #1 WR).

Jaelon Darden, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

 -- Darden scored at least one TD in every game in 2020 season (9 games). Had a streak of 10 games in a row with at least 1 TD.

 -- Six of 9 games in 2020 season with 100+ yards. Two 200+ yard games. 100+ yards in six of his last 7 games. 140+ yards in five of his last 6 games. 

 -- 10 or more catches in a game 5 times in his last 15 games. 

 -- Conference USA Most Valuable Player in 2020.

 -- #5 in the NCAAs in catches, #3 in yards, #2 in rec. TDs in 2020, despite only playing 9 games. 

 -- Caught 19 of his team’s 28 TD passes in 2020 season…a whopping 67.9% TD share (and he missed a game of action/skipped their bowl game to prep for the draft). Caught 40.0% of his teams passes in 2020 season. Accounted for 42.3% of his teams passing yards in 2020. 

 -- 38 career receiving TDs is #22 all-time in the NCAAs. 

Pro Day Estimates:

5’8”/170, 9” hands

4.35-4.45 40-time, sub-7.0 three-cone

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Jaelon Darden Most Compares Within Our System:

There is a lot of DeSean Jackson here. Most small, speedy, skinny college WR prospects get compared to DeSean, but Darden may be the closest thing to DJax yet. 

If Darden is a DJax or K.J. Hamler type WR, then he’ll have a nice NFL opportunity. But we have to recognize he might be too much like fringe/occasional flash WRs like Aldrick Robinson, Keke Coutee, or Taylor Gabriel.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Small-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Small-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Small-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical-size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

I mentioned earlier, some places don’t have him draftable (yet), and that’s mostly national sites…while more draft aware websites show Darden as a top 100-150 overall type prospect. In the end, his Pro Day times are going to be the push him to inside the top 150 or outside it…either way, Darden will be drafted. He won’t go undrafted. 

If I were an NFL GM, I’m intrigued by Darden but I’m not basing my draft plan around making sure I land him. The more he falls, the more interested I am…but I don’t see him as a sure-fire end-all-be-all weapon. After his Pro Day, I’ll reassess that notion

NFL Outlook:   

He’s either going to be a gimmicky #3-4 WR and nice punt returner or, if he tests with high-end speed-agility at 170-175+ pounds, then he might be a real weapon to deploy for an indoor/dome passing offense. At a minimum, he’s going to be intriguing based on just how much of a true ankle breaker he is…and it may make him a real draft steal. 

3/2/2021