NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: SAF Richie Grant, Central Florida

*FS/SS grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available.

Richie Grant is one of the handful of contenders for CFM’s top safety of the 2021 NFL Draft class. I’ve sampled some of the top safety names’ work and/or preview scouted them in the past – and I see 3-4 contenders for ‘best in class’ so far, with Richie Grant as my first deep dive SAF study of 2021…and he is the leader in the clubhouse for the top spot. We’ll see what happens when I get into Caden Sterns, Travis Moehrig and a few others showing signs – but Grant has a great case to be the top safety for 2021.

I had the pleasure of watching Grant at Senior Bowl week, and that’s where he captured my full attention (never seen any of his work or heard of him prior to that). In a quick preview of his work ahead of the Senior Bowl, I thought Grant was OK…but he didn’t stand out to me one way or the other. His playing style is more subtle not flashy. However, against the top competition at the Senior Bowl backdrop – Grant stood out as arguably the best defensive back…and best overall defensive player there.

Notice I typed ‘best defensive back’ – because where Grant is amazing is in pass coverage. Grant dominated WRs in one-on-one WR v. DB drills all week. There were only two dominant DBs at the Senior Bowl, both from Central Florida…Aaron Robinson and Richie Grant. You could hardly tell them apart covering all the top WRs there…but thing is – Grant is a safety by trade, and yet he was working like a shutdown corner.

That’s where Grant might have to be listed/ranked as the top SAF prospect in this draft – because he might be the best pure safety (he can tackle, play the run, and cover the pass) BUT he also could flip to a corner position – either primarily or in an emergency. That’s a pretty sweet facet to his game.

As a safety, he’s a complete player. A willing, effective tackler -- #2 in the American Athletic Conference in solo tackles his first season as a starter (sophomore 2018), 108 total tackles that year.

Again, he’s a ‘boss’ in coverage – 6 interceptions his debut starting season of 2018…leading the conference and #3 in all the NCAAs. #9 all-time in career INTs (10) in the American Athletic Conference.

The guy is just ‘a football player’. Not much more secret scouting to do or talk about ‘loose hips’, etc.

The downside…

All the boxes were checked at the Pro Day on every measurable but two (in my opinion)…

1) 12 bench reps…that’s not damning, and he doesn’t play frail – but he could stand to add 5+ pounds of muscle and really be a rock at safety. As it is, he’s a reliable/terrific one-on-one open field tackler…but I have seen ‘big boys’ run through him at times. Mostly, he puts his nose into danger without hesitancy. I would have liked to have seen him be able to go 15+ reps on the bench for pre-Draft impressing of NFL gawkers, like me.

2) A 4.55+ 40-time, which may mean a 4.6 +/- 40-time in reality…that’s on the back end of being ‘OK’. If he had run in the 4.4s, you’d be looking at the for-sure #1 safety and a quick Pro Bowl/rich man in the future. His long speed is on the average/slower side, but not damning…just not optimal. However, he ran a higher end 1.53 10-yard, and 2.53 20-yard…which most the game relies on that – he’s fine.

Solid+ safety across the board. Possible starting CB skills for the NFL. Good+ academically. No injury history to speak of. This pick is not going to fail his NFL draft team.

Richie Grant, Through the Lens of Our SAF Scouting Algorithm:

 -- All-time in the American Athletic Conference:

#7 in solo tackles (189, 46 games)

#8 in total tackles (290)

#9 in interceptions (10)

#13 in fumbles forced (5)

Pro Day 2021:

5’11.5”/197, 9.4” hands, 32.6” arms

4.57 40-time, 2.53 20-yd, 1.53 10-yd

4.26 shuttle, 6.77 three-cone

12 bench press reps, 34.5” vertical, 10’9” broad jump

The Historical SAF Prospects to Whom Richie Grant Most Compares Within Our System:

Earl Thomas came to mind right away watching Grant play. This is a promising comp list – and Grant is probably the best tackler of the group. 

*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0.

OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college SS/FS prospects, with a focus on which SS/FS prospects went on to be good-great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL SS/FS's had in common in college, that most other SS/FS prospects could not match/achieve.

Scoring with a rating over a 7.0+ in our system is where we start to take a SS/FS prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL-successful college SS/FS prospects scored 8.0+ in our system, and most of the NFL-superior FS/SSs pushed ratings more in the 9–10.0+ levels overall. Future NFL busts will sneak into the 8.0+ rating range from time to time.

TACKLE/STRENGTH METRIC -- A combination of physical measurables and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the SS/FS as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, forced fumbles, and physical hits to separate a WR from the ball. It also gives some insight into the "toughness" of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to).

SPEED/COVERAGE METRIC -- A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements as well as college performance. A unique measuring system to look for SS/FS prospects that profile for superior coverage skills and abilities.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

I see Grant ranked either as the #2 or #3 or worse among all safety prospects. He has momentum coming out of the Senior Bowl. I think he’s a better prospect than Trevon Moehrig from what I see (and I study Moehrig deeper next). I think Grant goes #30-45 overall.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d want Grant…if I had a safety need…BUT, I don’t pay top 50 draft pick capital for the safety position. Grant may make me alter that since he can be an NFL corner too. He would be on my 2nd-round list for sure, then it depends upon what else is available to me. 

NFL Outlook:   

Going to start either Week 1 or soon after in his rookie season and be a long-time starter in the NFL. 

4/7/2021