*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.
In back-to-back weeks in November 2020, Jaret Patterson had the following two games…
11/17/20 v. Bowling Green St. = 31 carries for 301 rushing yards and 4 TDs
11/28/20 v. Kent State = 36 carries for 409 rushing yards and 8 TDs
For some college RBs, that’s a whole season’ output… for Jaret Patterson, it was two games. So, if he’s obliterating stat sheets in college, why isn’t Patterson in the discussion as one of the top RB prospects in this draft? He does get the ‘watch out for this guy’ sleeper label THEY apply to 50-100 players in each draft to cover their arses – but with such a stellar career and stunning games in 2020, why isn’t he getting a greater push?
I’ve looked at his tape on five separate occasions just to see if I was missing something – I am not. He’s just not a good or great RB prospect for the NFL. He’s not the talent the college numbers are suggesting he might be.
You got three issues here…
1) I’ve seen the tape…and noted it back in my summer 2020 preview – there’s ‘no there there’. There’s no ‘it’ factor in his game. You don’t see an impressive NFL prospect when you watch his work against equal/better opponents. *More data on this in the next section.
2) He’s getting a ton of activity/output, but also a ton of touches. When you start boiling things down to per touch instead of raw tallies…he starts to fall more into line as a good college RB instead of something super-special.
3) His Pro Day confirmed fears…
4.59 40-time (so 4.6+ in reality)
Small size at 5’6”/195, more bowling ball-ish
Mediocre/OK agility times with 4.35 shuttle/7.03 three-cone.
At his size, this isn’t going to cut it.
I wish it weren’t true. Patterson has the heart of a warrior. He’s going to bleed to make it into the NFL, and I think he can cling on as a practice squad back who may get thrust into play due to an injury emergency…and he’ll probably do OK – but not anything special. He’s more heart and effort than athleticism and NFL-weapon ability.
When you watch Patterson in games against better competition – like his Penn State or Temple or Ball State matchups…it’s always much lower yards per carry, with all his major work coming against MAC weaklings.
Patterson is a great kid; I hope he makes it…but I’d bet against it. He’s just a great college RB getting a ton of touches in a weak mid-major conference.
Jaret Patterson, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:
-- Facing his toughest opponents/highest ranked defenses in 2019-2020 (Ball State, Miami, OH/2020, Temple, Ohio, Penn State, Liberty (per game): 19.7 carries, 74.2 rushing yards (3.8 yards per carry), 0.63 TDs per game.
-- Patterson rushed for 52 TDs in 33 career games for Buffalo.
12 TDs against Bowling Green State, 10 TDs against Kent State – nearly half of his career TDs came in 6 games against these two teams. And note…these are not good defensive units…as if I had to mention that.
2021 Pro Day:
5’6.4”/195, 9.25” hands, 28.75” arms
4.59 40-time, 2.45 20-yard, 1.58 10-yard
4.35 shuttle, 7.03 three-cone
19 bench reps, 30” vertical, 9’9” broad jump
*Note – that 2.45 20-yard dash is stellar, freakish…and is either an error in reporting or a sign of a great 2nd-level breakaway ability.
The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Jaret Patterson Most Compares Within Our System:
Darwin Thompson is an interesting comp – guy who had a nice college career, a head-fake one in a mid-major conference. Let down on his Pro Day work. Still, people stayed attached to a narrative of him as a sleeper…and he’s been dead and buried and a waste in Kansas City. I fear that’s Jaret Patterson’s future.
|
RB Score |
RB-Re |
RB-ru |
Last |
First |
College |
Yr |
H |
H |
W |
Speed Metric |
Agility Metric |
Power Metric |
|
5.385 |
2.20 |
5.44 |
Patterson |
Jaret |
Buffalo |
2021 |
5 |
6.4 |
195 |
4.98 |
2.80 |
7.59 |
|
5.909 |
6.20 |
4.90 |
Thompson |
Darwin |
Utah State |
2019 |
5 |
8.0 |
198 |
-0.03 |
3.76 |
7.57 |
|
2.769 |
3.55 |
1.88 |
Williams |
Stanley |
Kentucky |
2017 |
5 |
7.4 |
190 |
3.54 |
4.55 |
4.47 |
|
4.893 |
4.46 |
7.07 |
Singletary |
Devin |
Florida Atl |
2019 |
5 |
7.4 |
203 |
-5.24 |
2.41 |
6.44 |
|
3.333 |
3.85 |
3.89 |
Roberson |
Kendall |
E. Tex Bapt. |
2016 |
5 |
7.6 |
200 |
-2.59 |
4.34 |
6.77 |
|
2.532 |
4.62 |
0.95 |
West |
Jared |
Northwst St |
2020 |
5 |
8.0 |
202 |
-1.06 |
1.41 |
3.72 |
|
2.045 |
2.28 |
1.51 |
Ward |
Terron |
Oregon St |
2015 |
5 |
5.7 |
197 |
-4.45 |
-3.38 |
6.51 |
|
1.838 |
2.89 |
3.32 |
Walter |
Austin |
Rice |
2019 |
5 |
6.7 |
194 |
-2.74 |
-4.67 |
2.78 |
*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.
All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.
Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics – then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search – runner, blocker, and receiver.
*RB-Re score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect's receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills – it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand size measurables, etc.
*RB-Ru score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect's ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.
Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.
Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.
2021 NFL Draft Outlook:
Because Patterson had those big games in 2020, he’s got no-study football analysts’ attention and has a 4th-5th-round draft ranking on most websites. I suspect he’ll ultimately be a 5th-7th-round pick.
If I were an NFL GM, Patterson is not on my board of serious RBs to consider either for the draft or as a UDFA, if it were to come down to it.
NFL Outlook:
Patterson will like grind his arse off to stay in the NFL fringe, and try and make it to the show for a cup of coffee. He effort and work ethic will endear him and keep him around – and hopefully get him a shot at some NFL work.
I don’t believe he’ll ever matter for a stretch of time, but he could have a good game or two. I’m rooting for him, but I’d bet against him.
3/21/2021
