NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State (update)

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

**APRIL 9 UPDATE**

For every individual Pro Day set of measurables that has pleasantly surprised me on a prospect, there have been five+ of them that have disappointed. Most of the pleasant surprises were just ‘mild’ improvements over my initial estimates…but the disappointments have more torpedoes of a prospects draft stock/very bad results. 

Jermar Jefferson’s Pro Day was another in the ‘torpedo hit’ category. He will fall from our top-ranked ‘small/speed’ RB from the early/pre-Pro Day visuals -- to ‘just another guy’. Gainwell, Jefferson, Felton to some degree Michael Carter – it is all bad news for the smaller/satellite back types on their Pro Day duds. 

I had thought Jefferson would run around 4.50 for his Pro Day 40-time…he ran 4.60. Not good.

I thought he’d run in the 4.5s at around 215 pounds – and then he ran slower at a more svelte 206 pounds. He cut weight to be faster…and wasn’t all that fast. 

I had hoped/thought he’d be near a 7.00 three-cone…instead a weak 7.39. 

His bench press reps were below average (13) and his vertical was non-existent at 31”. 

Nothing good came of Jermar Jefferson’s Pro Day. There’s no other way to put it. It wasn’t slightly off…it was damning. 

Our computer grades tumbled on him, and I have to follow the computer on this one…even though I was impressed with his running style and ability on tape, I cannot ignore that set of numbers. I could have accepted the numbers to be a little down off estimates – but these are ‘bad’. Too bad to take too seriously. 

If I were an NFL GM, I’d only consider Jermar as a UDFA. I’d bring him in just to see if his style/instinct supersedes the measurables – he does have that mild hope…that he plays better/faster than the numbers on paper say. 

Running backs are bad value in the draft as it is, in general…especially sub-210-pound ones, and Jefferson’s Pro Day just made him even less valuable. I hope he outplays the analytics at the next level, for his sake – but these numbers are too weak to get behind him anymore. 

The new comp board…

I see more Jeff Wilson hope/style here with Jefferson than a style comp with Ronald Jones. RoJo added 20+ pounds and became a whole new back in the NFL. I don’t see Jefferson doing the same, but…I never thought Ron Jones could do it either.

Jermar is a ‘prove it to me’, near-dead prospect to me know. 

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**ORIGINAL MARCH 20 REPORT**

As we get deeper into the evaluation process of the RB prospects we classify (crudely/simply) as ‘small RB’, having initial computer scouting model grades on all the top RB-s prospects – Jermar Jefferson emerges as the early leader among them ‘in the clubhouse’.

How many football people agree with that statement above, that Jefferson is the top smaller RB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft? = zero.

However, I’ve been doing this long enough to know that doesn’t matter – one of the worst concepts in football scouting is ‘well, the consensus/most football people say…’.

It’s still a fluid situation, but we have Jefferson at #1 among the RB-s group…but his Pro Day on 4/1 will either completely change that or solidify it.

How did we come to the conclusion that Jefferson is the top guy…over smaller RB prospects like Etienne, Gainwell, Carter, etc.? Let’s dive in.

My first statement is: Jermar Jefferson is the Travis Etienne that people think Etienne is.

To me, in shorthand – Etienne is a good screen pass back with flaws/holes in his game as a runner. He’s just not a dominant interior runner. Not terrible, but not an NFL impact runner. He’ll never be a real, successful three-down back. He’s so-so/forgettable running the interior, I see some cause for concern with his rushing ability. But overall, Etienne is fine…good enough to play and produce numbers in the right situation. Etienne should be a 4th-round type RB who might go as the top RB off the board.

Jermar Jefferson on the other hand – he might be a successful NFL three-down RB. He might be a Dalvin Cook type runner in the NFL. Jefferson and Etienne are not big bruisers in size, they are 208-215 pound RBs with good+ movement skills. The difference between Jefferson and Etienne being – Jefferson is a natural runner of the ball. Excellent instincts and feel for reading holes, evading short space tackles, and putting some muscle into the end of his runs. Jefferson has that knack to find 1-2-3+ more yards on a carry that Etienne doesn’t have…and that few of the RBs in this class have. It’s a gift.

A natural thought at this point is – if Jefferson is so good, why isn’t he getting more acclaim in the football world (besides the same ‘watch out for this guy’ labels 50-100 prospects who didn’t play for Clemson-Alabama-Ohio State or in the SEC in general get)? Three things are holding Jefferson’s draft stock back right now…

1) He played at Oregon State, so the eastern half of the U.S biased media could care less about him…he can’t be that good if he went to Oregon State. I mean, he wasn’t even good enough to go to Oregon! *Note…Jefferson turned down USC to go to Oregon State.

2) Jefferson splashed right away at OSU…he became the Beavers first true freshman starter at RB in 2018 and rushed for 1,380 yards and 12 TDs with 25 catches. He was firmly ‘on the map’ going into 2019 but a few games in he hurt his ankle and missed a few games, then was limited in a few others, and ended up with a decent 2019, but still kind of a letdown.

Because of COVID, many put stock in 2019 results/memories over 2020 activity…so, Jefferson’s weak 2019 left him off the radar a bit.

3) Jefferson had a terrific 2020, but because of COVID (and the PAC 12’s nonsense on playing), Jefferson’s season was only 6 games and thus the raw tallies obscured the quality. The limited season is hiding a great performance in plain sight…

133 carries, 858 rush yards, 6.5 ypc, 7 rush TDs = Jefferson (6 games in 2020)

Let’s do some comparisons of that output…

204 carries, 1,658 rush yards, 8.1 ypc, 24 TDs = Etienne (15 games in 2018/his best season)

332 carries, 2,145 rush yards, 6.5 ypc, 18 TDs = Jefferson (extrapolating his 6 games in 2020 into a 15 games season.

Would Jefferson have kept up the pace for 15 games? Who knows? But consider Etienne did his work in a pretty weak ACC but surrounded by NFL Draft talent all over to support him. Jefferson will be the only offensive player drafted from Oregon State in 2021.

Look at 2020 comps…

168 carries, 914 rush yards, 1,502 total yards, 5.4 ypc, 16 total TDs = Etienne (12 games in 2020)

266 carries, 1,716 rush yards, 1,850 total yards, 6.5 ypc, 12 total TDs = Jefferson (doubling his 6 games of output in 2020 season to match Etienne’s 12 game season)

At bare minimum, you can see what a real workhorse Jefferson was for Oregon State.

I didn’t know much about Jefferson going into this study. I knew I had to research Etienne-Gainwell-Carter as the top names among the smaller RBs. Once I was completed with that group, I looked at the next tier of smaller RBs to see if I needed to consider going deeper with them ASAP – the moment I saw Jefferson’s tape, from the very first run that I saw…I thought we might have a ‘winner’ here. Jefferson jumps off the tape much more than Etienne does, for me.

Etienne might have an advantage as a short game pass catcher, which is nice but not critical – but Jefferson is definitely the much better runner of the ball for the next level. It shouldn’t even be a debate (although zero football people outside of OSU fans would know it).

Watching Jefferson game tape from 2018-2019-2020…he has a very impressive, natural ability to run the ball. He’s not a burner, but he is fast (I suspect he’s a 4.50 +/- 40-time)…but it’s his burst that catches my attention – burst + vision. Jefferson adeptly reads holes/blocking and patiently waits for the seam, and then he punches it and goes through tight spots with grace, elusiveness, and toughness.

Jefferson might not outrun defenses for 50+ yard TDs, but he’s a killer on 0-10+ yard runs. He’s a ‘professional’ runner of the ball. Etienne, to me, just runs fast where the play was called and goes as far as blocking takes him. Jefferson is more of an artist running the ball. Jefferson also has much better balance, toughness, and ability to squeeze an extra 1-2 yards out of most runs – much better there than Etienne is.

Etienne had a much better career catching the ball – but he also played in an offense built on screen passes and bubble screens. Jefferson caught the ball fine but didn’t get a ton of targets because he was the lead dog in a traditional running game. Etienne was the good athlete dropped into a great situation for pass game production. If Jefferson had gone to Clemson and Etienne had gone to Oregon State…people might not really care much about Etienne and they might marvel at how great Jefferson was. And if that statement is true, then we have cause to believe Jefferson is the better Etienne.

I keep comparing Jefferson to Etienne because they are virtually the same size and will probably have similar Pro Day times/measurements. Similar in measurables, but Jefferson just the better all-around runner. I put them in the ‘small RB’ category because of height and style, but they are right on the border of a size to be considered with the ‘bigger’ RB prospects.  I just think their games and height fit ‘small’ more…but Jefferson can go either way with his play style. He’s likely to weigh 210-215 pounds at his Pro Day, so he’s a ‘tweener’ of a big v. small for an NFL RB.

Jefferson is clean off-the-field/on a background check. An affable, humble young man. Solid in the classroom. Had a mild ankle injury that cost him a few games in 2019 but no major injury issues in college otherwise.

Jermar Jefferson, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

 -- Five of 6 games in 2020 with 100+ yards rushing in a game. The critique of that is – the PAC 12 is not a tough defense conference in general. 

 -- Jefferson’s toughest PAC 12 opponents in his three seasons were: Oregon, Washington, Stanford. He faced them a total of 6 times in 2018 and 2020 (skipping 2019 games due to his ankle injury). His per game averages against them…

19.8 carries, 96.0 rush yds, 4.9 ypc, 0.0 TDs = 2018 true freshman season, 3 gm (two 100+ yard games)

23.7 carries, 136.3 rush yds, 5.8 ypc, 0.67 TDs = 2020 COVID season, 3 gm (two 100+ games, one 200+)

21.7 carries, 116.2 rush yds, 5.4 ypc, 0.33 TDs = all 6 games (four of 6 games 100+ yard games)

 -- Five or more catches in a game…three times in his career. 

Pro Day Estimates:

5’9”, 215 +/- pounds

4.50 +/- 40-time, 7.0 +/- three-cone, 15+ bench press

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Jermar Jefferson Most Compares Within Our System:

A Jeremy McNichols comp is a little bit of a downer…McNichols had a terrific college career and disappointing (so far) pro career. But a comp to Darrell Henderson is exciting – an electric college AND pro RB (and exponentially better than Cam Akers, but that’s another debate). 

When I first watched Jefferson, I instantly thought of Darrell Henderson’s style as well…a lesser speed Henderson. The computer sees some of that too. 

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics – then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search – runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect's receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills – it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score =  Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect's ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

Jermar Jefferson is stuck in that 5th-round+ draft projection status black hole. He might get out of it with a 4.4s 40-time at his Pro Day, but for now you’d have to project him as a 5th-round pick. 

If I were an NFL GM, if I were looking for a smaller lead back type…I’d have to debate Jefferson for the price. While everyone burns good draft capital on Etienne-Gainwell-Carter…Jefferson will be a bargain available much later. 

NFL Outlook:   

Going to be a very difficult uphill climb to playing time and touches for Jefferson, most likely. Guys like him get drafted day three and are instantly 3rd-4th string on the depth chart and forced to play special teams and can get buried (while Etienne is put in bubble wrap and handed a starting job). 

If he has a hot Pro Day and gets into the 4th-round, he’s got more of a chance. The talent is there, but the aura/hype is not…and that puts his NFL career up in the air short-term.

4/9/2021