*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
I begin every CFM season by studying the QB prospects. I always try to start with the consensus top 2-3-4 but also wedge in there a QB prospect off the grid a little bit. I had an FCS QB prospect all picked out for this first ‘radical’ spot, but then I had Zac Thomas’ highlight tape recommended to me and after seeing a few minutes of it – I changed gears and went deeper on Thomas as my ‘not consensus top 10’ QB prospect to look at early.
The 2018 Sun Belt Player of the Year…and in 2019 he led his team to a (13-1) record, and a #19 final AP rank as he threw for 28 TDs/6 INTs with road wins over North Carolina and South Carolina. A (32-7) record over three seasons as a starter. On paper, a worthy guy to look at.
On the highlight tape, I saw a QB with excellent mechanics…a smooth delivery with a ‘plus’ arm strength and what looked like very good accuracy. I began to get excited.
I started out by watching/studying his toughest games, a deeper dive, a game at a time. I began with his toughest 2020 game – vs. Coastal Carolina…a loss with just 211 yards passing, 1 TD/3 INTs. Then I watched him against out-of-conference powers (in 2019 season) North Carolina (224 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) and South Carolina (105 yards, 0 TD/1 INT)… and after those three games my enthusiasm bubble was burst. Not that he was bad in those games, but as the numbers/output testified, he wasn’t great. The more games I watched, the more I saw ‘the problem’…and it’s a shame.
Before I harp on ‘the problem’, let me give the positives…
Thomas is an NFL talent as a passer/thrower. The arm is there. The ability to read the field (better than Trevor Lawrence can) is there. The accuracy is there – he throws downfield with a knack for putting the ball right on receivers in stride. He’s nimble enough in foot speed, not a burner but not a stiff.
Thomas has some skills worth taking a look at developing. He reminds me of a better, but less experienced passer version of Kyle Allen (in the NFL…he’s been a Carolina and Washington spot starter).
‘The problem’? Thomas is not a well-schooled, confident enough passer prospect after his college career for the next level. He played in a very run-heavy offense and Zac Thomas was the really good/solid QB leading the huddle and handing off a lot. When called upon to throw, he could deliver…but more often, despite his gifts, he was not the primary focus of the offense.
He played three seasons as a starter (2018-2020). Look at the pass attempts of App State versus the rushing attempts per game…
2018 = 41.5 rushes/24.5 passes per game (he won the Conference Player of the Year within this, but partly because he ran 92 times for 10 TDs himself.
2019 = 42.6 rushes/26.4 passes per game
2020 = 45.3 rushes/25.0 passes per game
Thomas, despite being a talented passer, was not the center of the offense – the run game was…thus, Thomas’s gifts were a bit hidden/not allowed to flourish.
One of the big issues with not ‘growing’ as a passer each season is – it looks like Thomas accepted his fate. He was content to ‘manage’ the offense. It worked for wins, but it stunted any growth or upside or ‘show off’ of Thomas. I saw Thomas had skills, but I also saw that Thomas was not confident/practiced (in games) enough to shine throwing the ball in big games/against tough opponents.
App State really committed a disservice to Thomas’ NFL hopes/dreams stunting him in this offense. An NFL team would have to take the time to develop a guy like this for when mass injuries happen, and he’s elevated off the practice squad in an emergency and has to play in an NFL game, and then he better shine to get attention. It rarely works that way…
NFL teams RARELY develop smaller, UDFA type QBs…and when they get forced into NFL work out of nowhere, they simply aren’t ready/practiced enough with the starters to matter.
Thomas gets some of the blame as well…he could have pushed for more work, so his confidence/aggression has to be in some question.
Thomas has tools, but at his smaller size (6’0”+/200+) and smaller school profile – he’s likely an undrafted free agent and has a journeyman bouncing around future ahead.
Off the field, Thomas is a great character – team captain, well liked by all. Clean record. He’s the kind of guy who will get shots to be on rosters, a guy coaches will like as a person…but likely to be dismissed/taken lightly and he’ll have to grind his way to any future.
Zac Thomas, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:
-- 69 TDs/23 INTs for his career with 19 rushing TDs…not bad at all in his three years as a starter. Production is there, especially considering his lower opportunity to throw/shine.
-- 62%+ accuracy every season as a starter.
-- Three bowl appearances, a (3-0) record and but averaged just 144.4 passing yards in those games…because he only threw 21.3 passes per game as they ran heavy to win.
-- His three toughest opponents (in his career) were 2019 North and South Carolina, and 2020 Coastal Carolina. His averages in those games, a disappointing: 63.1% Comp. Pct., 180.0 yards, 0.33 TDs/1.6 INTs per game.
Measurables Projections:
6’0”-6’1”/200+ pounds
4.75+ 40-time. 7.1+ three-cone
The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Zac Thomas Most Compares Within Our System:
John Wolford came to my mind, a lesser Wolford…but a cross of Chad Kelly and Chase Daniel makes some sense – Kelly has moments where he looks elite, and then makes some bad decisions and loses his momentum. Daniel is a good game manager.
In the end, comparing Thomas to Wolford or Kelly or Daniel…it doesn’t bode well for his NFL prospects. Chase Daniel types were acceptable in 2009…but he wouldn’t even start for a major D1 program in 2020.
|
QB-Grade |
LJax Rating |
Last |
First |
Yr |
College |
H |
W |
Adj Comp Pct |
Adj Yds per Comp |
Adj Pass per TD |
Adj Pass Per INT |
|
5.893 |
4.87 |
Thomas |
Zac |
2021 |
Appalachian St |
72.5 |
210 |
59.8% |
11.8 |
15.4 |
23.4 |
|
2.967 |
|
Kelly |
Chad |
2017 |
Ole Miss |
73.5 |
224 |
61.2% |
14.0 |
17.3 |
36.3 |
|
4.644 |
2.22 |
Daniel |
Chase |
2009 |
Missouri |
72.0 |
218 |
69.6% |
10.7 |
16.1 |
27.9 |
|
4.437 |
2.02 |
Murray |
Aaron |
2013 |
Georgia |
72.0 |
212 |
56.4% |
15.8 |
14.2 |
21.6 |
|
3.686 |
|
Doege |
Seth |
2013 |
Texas Tech |
73.1 |
200 |
67.9% |
11.0 |
16.9 |
26.8 |
*’LJax rating’ – new for 2021, as we re-do our grading systems to better identify/reward the spread offense QB prospects…looking for the runner-passer talents.
**“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.
***A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite.
QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys.
2021 NFL Draft Outlook:
Thomas will go undrafted, and he should just go to the CFL or AFL or whatever ‘__L’ instead of the NFL. Go put in work elsewhere and try and get to the NFL that way.
NFL Outlook:
A practice squad guy. A career backup at best. The NFL does not have the time or patience to develop small in stature, average-speed QBs even if they have good arms/good vision. I hope I’m wrong. I hope he gets some development chance, but I would bet against it.
1/6/2021
