*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
My journey into Ian Book scouting leads to a conflicting story, with, I fear, an ultimately a sad ending…
My general overview is – I like the player, for college. Good vision and instincts as a passer and will run/scramble on purpose as a weapon. He makes good throws, and he makes slippery/slick plays with his feet. A quintessentially good-to-great college QB…a (30-5) record as a starter the past three seasons.
The scouting problem is – he might be a good/great college quarterback…but he’s a mediocre/good prospect with possible fatal flaws for the NFL.
The problem manifests itself when you watch him playing equal/better opponents (Clemson, Alabama, or at the Senior Bowl). Book is a shorter (6’0”) QB who has a real nice arm and feel for the game, but he has a hesitation in the pocket that is going to cost him in the NFL. I heard it said about him at the Senior Bowl, and I saw it on tape in my previous study pre-Senior Bowl and again at the Senior Bowl 11-on-11 drills…Book tends to freeze up, ever so slightly, in a pure pocket passing situation looking downfield, and will usually not throw but take off running/scrambling or run into a sack rather than make a blind, tight window throw. I don’t know if he doesn’t see receivers because of his height behind the O-Line or if he is just gun-shy a tad…but the hesitation costs him.
When Book has clear vision, and especially if he rolls out or escapes the pocket…whenever he makes a confident throw – he throws darts on the money, but when kept in the pocket he gets uncomfortable and bad or neutral things happen more than positive outcomes.
My personal take is…I think Book is so afraid of throwing an interception, overgroomed by coaches or just his ‘way’, that he’s not going to make the throw unless he really knows it is there. I could see it all Senior Bowl week in 11-on-11 and some in 7-on-7…he hesitates and then the pocket breaks down and he scrambles, or he eats it. Against the best/better college players…there’s not enough time to wait for more clear things, and even worse – he has fast feet but not ultra-fast feet. He cannot scramble his way out of every situation at the next level of competition.
These are problems at the Senior Bowl or against Alabama and Clemson. In the pros, there are nothing but tight window throws, and when he scrambles in the pros the D-Linemen are as fast/faster than he is. His hesitation issue…it could make him a very rapid, glorious NFL bust.
Thrown into heavy, multi-game action right away…I think he’d be in trouble.
However, the upside here is – if Book gets a couple seasons of experience and great coaching, perhaps that next-level pocket passer can be unleashed. If you could take his hesitation away you have one of the smarter, more instinctual passers of the 2021 crop…with fast enough feet to be respected as a runner – and he’s a top leader of men type of player. You get a lot of franchise QB qualities with Book, but two fatal flaws…his height and more concerning, his pocket hesitation.
The likely outcome… Book wallows as a backup for a few years because he endears himself to the coaching staff and shows enough moxie and talent they stick with him. He can scramble/survive in the NFL in short bursts. But he never gets over the hump as a pocket passer and he just goes down in history as a scrappy, flimsy career backup.
The upside hope… Book figures out, matures, is trained to be a confident pocket passer overcoming his height/vision (maybe as Russell Wilson’s understudy) and you get a great backup who could be a surprise decent NFL starter.
The downside risk… He flames out fast because his flaws are pushed to the limit+ with faster pass rushes and only tight windows to throw to.
Some prospects you can really get behind and sing praises on, some you know right away they are dead for the NFL, some you see them as OK/limited/backups for the NFL – with Book, I’m not confident in pounding my fist on the desk and proclaiming how it’s going to turn out. Because there exists some hope…he has some NFL Draft value. Buyer to determine what that is.
Ian Book, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:
Against his toughest competition: His five losses the past three seasons plus a win against Clemson in 2020 their first matchup (five losses to: Clemson 2x, Georgia, Michigan, Alabama), Book averaged…
57.5% Comp Pct., 211.0 passing yards, 0.67 TDs/0.67 INTs per game.
Those numbers are WAY off his output against all other teams…inferior teams. And they are not just ‘down or weak’ numbers – they are BAD numbers for a college QB looking at the pros.
In bowl games the past three seasons…
(0-3) record, 61.5% Comp. Pct., 212.0 yards, 0.33 TDs/0.67 INTs per game.
Against tougher competition, better defensive players…Book just doesn’t cut it.
Senior Bowl Measurables:
6’0”/210, 9.88” hands, 31.25” arms
Pro Day Speed Projections:
4.7+ 40-time, sub 7.00 three-cone.
The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Ian Book Most Compares Within Our System:
I like a lot of the Book comps here, but don’t love any one particular…he’s like an amalgamation of all of them.
You’ll notice some broke through from their lowly start/journey into the NFL…other never saw a roster. Book will make a roster but whether he can have a Kyle Allen or Case Keenum spike to temporary prominence will be worth watching.
Case Keenum is probably his upside and P.J. Walker is his downside.
|
QB-Grade |
LJax Rating |
Last |
First |
Yr |
College |
H |
W |
Adj Comp Pct |
Adj Yds per Comp |
Adj Pass per TD |
Adj Pass Per INT |
|
6.354 |
6.10 |
Book |
Ian |
2021 |
Notre Dame |
72.0 |
210 |
65.2% |
12.0 |
30.6 |
59.2 |
|
6.089 |
|
Sunseri |
Tino |
2013 |
Pitt |
72.0 |
205 |
65.5% |
11.2 |
22.5 |
93.8 |
|
5.214 |
3.75 |
Keenum |
Case |
2012 |
Houston |
72.5 |
210 |
64.6% |
10.8 |
22.0 |
86.8 |
|
5.318 |
6.21 |
Rourke |
Nathan |
2020 |
Ohio U. |
72.5 |
210 |
58.2% |
13.4 |
22.3 |
41.1 |
|
4.249 |
|
Allen |
Kyle |
2018 |
Houston |
73.0 |
208 |
56.6% |
12.4 |
23.8 |
50.0 |
|
0.618 |
4.24 |
Walker |
P.J. |
2017 |
Temple |
71.2 |
214 |
62.2% |
12.9 |
31.4 |
31.9 |
|
4.943 |
|
Price |
Keith |
2014 |
Washington |
72.4 |
196 |
60.9% |
11.7 |
20.1 |
45.1 |
*’LJax rating’ – new for 2021, as we re-do our grading systems to better identify/reward the spread offense QB prospects…looking for the runner-passer talents.
**“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.
***A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite.
QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys.
2021 NFL Draft Outlook:
I see Ian Book with mostly day three draft rankings…more 6th-7th-round. That sounds about right…with a chance he doesn’t get drafted. But I’d say he’s 80%+ likely to get drafted.
If I were an NFL GM…I like Book as a long shot hopeful with a good attitude/presence, but I would have better options already on my roster. He’s a good guy to groom until he can become a useful QB…but not for me…I’m not ‘settling’. As a GM, I want to use my QB roster spots and draft picks swinging for the fences not placeholder/’good guy’ backups. If you get the QB right, your franchise can win a Super Bowl riding on their back. Get 2-3 good QBs and you have serious trade assets and insurance. Book just isn’t my kinda guy, but I’m rooting for him.
NFL Outlook:
Likely gets drafted, is a 3rd-string/backup QB for a few years. Maybe gets a spot start in an emergency and is decent/scrappy…but over time he will be forgotten as a legit NFL starter and just a name we remember from a high-profile college that is a backup at best, and then a journeyman.
I hope he figures it out and then has a surprisingly solid NFL journey, but if I have to bet on it today – I bet he is an also-ran in the NFL.
2/1/2021
