NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: DT/DE Milton Williams, La. Tech (Quick Hit Report)

*DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

** ‘Quick hit’ scouting is a quick publishing of shorthand notes I took watching 2-4 games of activity because there are some ‘things’ the computer sees (usually from the measurables) that make me want to see if something ‘special’ or ‘interesting’ looms. Typically, pre-Draft, we do this on prospects who are a little more off the grid/national spotlight. **

As soon as I saw the Pro Day results, I knew I had to watch this prospect (Milton Williams) in action to see if the Pro Day translated to tape. 6’3”/284 running a 4.67 40-time, 6.96 three-cone, a 38.5” vertical, and a ‘wow’ 34 bench reps.

Does the tape match the Pro Day numbers? From my view? Not really. I mean…the speed is there, but it only shows up rarely. I was expecting something really exciting…but I only saw mildly exciting, only in flashes.

I watched him against Georgia Southern (his 2020 bowl), his 2019 Miami, Fla. bowl game, and his 2020 BYU game. Here are some of my scouting notes on Williams from those:

 -- Too easily blocked one-on-one. You’d think at his size he would dominate Conference USA blocking but he was ‘good’ in the C-USA play and ‘handled’ by the better out of conference blockers.

 -- Sluggish surge off the snap. Gives up quickly when he doesn’t ‘win’ right away.

 -- Lollygags too often after the ball on plays going past the line of scrimmage.

 -- When Williams does get a ‘win’ or a lane to the backfield…he covers ground fast to get to a ballcarrier or QB. That Pro Day athleticism is hiding in there, but I rarely saw it on tape.

 -- Most of Williams’ tape is total boredom…a lack of penetration, a lack of big plays, a lack of energy/effort.

Milton Williams, Through the Lens of Our DT Scouting Algorithm:

 -- In Williams’ biggest games (BYU, Miami, Ga So., Marshall/2020, TCU), his average output per game…

4.8 total tackles, 0.3 TFLs, 0.3 sacks per game

 -- Career forced fumbles (25 games) = zero

 -- Career passes defended (25 games) = one

His Pro Day numbers are disruptive.

His statistical output is not disruptive. 

His tape is really not disruptive.

2021 Pro Day:

6’3”/284, 9.75” hands, 31.5” arms

4.67 40-time, 2.65 20-yd, 1.65 10-yd

4.33 shuttle, 6.96 three-cone

34 bench press reps, 38.5” vertical, 10’1” broad jump

The Historical DT Prospects to Whom Milton Williams Most Compares Within Our System:

Solomon Thomas was a similar-sized DT/DE prospect as Williams – but an even better athlete and a much better college career, and he went on to fail in the NFL. Uber-athleticism based on Pro Days is not necessarily a sign of NFL opportunity ahead for DT prospects.

You for sure have to consider Williams on the basis of his athleticism, but ALL the data points towards a lot of unfulfilled promise here – but such athleticism to work with means he’s worth taking a chance you might unlock it.

*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DTs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite DT.

All of the DT ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Power-Strength Metrics = A combination of several measurements. An attempt to classify the DT prospect as more of a battle-in-the-trenches type of DT, and/or a DT prospect who has nose tackle capabilities.

Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements. A unique measuring system to look for DTs who profile for quickness, and/or a DT prospect who might have some DE capabilities.

Pass-Rusher Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify whether a particular DT is likely to achieve high sack totals in the NFL. We know the ‘system’/scheme the DT goes on to play in has a part in future success...but so do the player’s skills and performance history.

Tackling Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the DT as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles. Lower scoring DTs in this sub-category tend to be more pure ‘pluggers’, and not as active on the stat sheet. It also gives some insight of the ‘toughness’ of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to).

NT Profile = This is an attempt to show which of these DT prospects has a profile to become a pure nose tackle/‘space-eater’ in the middle. It is not a 1–10 scale rating of a prospect’s skill/profile, it’s an attempt to point us in a direction of what this DT can be useful as (or not). Some DT prospects will grade off the charts on the NT profile, essentially a worst-case scenario of “put him in the middle and just let him be a wall.” There is NFL value in that ‘ability’. 

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

Williams’ Pro Day has moved him from a 6th+ round or UDFA draft prospect consensus ranking to a 4th-5th-round prospect now. That’s probably proper – too much athleticism to ignore. He should go 5th-round is my guess…to a team that runs a 3-4 defense and sees him as a neat 3-4 DE. Otherwise he’s a 4-3 DT that needs a year to add 10+ pounds of muscle.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d keep an eye on Williams as/if he fell in the draft…at a certain point, with his athleticism I’d be interested in throwing a dart here to see if my coaches could create a monster here. I’m just turned off by his effort I see on tape. Also, the Pro Day results could’ve been ‘too’ fake news’d by the school and Williams may not be the athlete they indicated.

NFL Outlook:   

Going to be forgotten in the NFL on his current course, but if a coach somehow takes him to another level and he’s put into the right scheme, Williams could get noticed. He could be a threat/weapon on the D-Line…especially as a 4-3 high-end quick DT weapon.

He may go to a 3-4 DE team and be a starter someday too. 

Anything is possible here…which is why he is draftable.  

4/5/2021