NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: DT Roy Lopez, Arizona (Quick Hit Report)

*DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

** ‘Quick hit’ scouting is a quick publishing of shorthand notes I had from watching 2-4 games of activity on a because there are some ‘things’ the computer sees (usually from the measurables) that I wanted to take a look at to see if something ‘special’ or ‘interesting’ looms. Typically, pre-Draft, we do this on prospects who are a little more off the grid/national spotlight. **

NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: DT Roy Lopez, Arizona (Quick Hit Report)

*DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

** ‘Quick hit’ scouting is a quick publishing of shorthand notes I took watching 2-4 games of activity because there are some ‘things’ the computer sees (usually from the measurables) that make me want to see if something ‘special’ or ‘interesting’ looms. Typically, pre-Draft, we do this on prospects who are a little more off the grid/national spotlight. ** 

I was doing some research on another player, and this defensive tackle (Roy Lopez) caught my eye…and then caught it again and again, so I ended up watching the game from Lopez’s perspective. I made myself a note to go back and do more study.

Lopez was a four-year starter for New Mexico State (2016-2019), but he sustained a nonspecific leg injury and missed several games in his Senior season – he was granted a 5th-year of eligibility in 2020 and transferred to the PAC 12/Arizona.

I watched some of his 2020 Arizona work and then sampled a bit of his 2018-2019 New Mexico State work, and here are my scouting notes…

 -- The BEST slide step of any defensive tackle I’ve seen recently. A slide step being where a defensive lineman just moves/slides their entire body to the left or right so fast that his blocker cannot even react to it. You could call it ‘shifty’ – but, to be clear, the key here to move east-west from a standstill/off the snap faster than your blocker could even think to.

Hard to describe, easier to show. From a Lopez highlight reel, I set it to run at a good example play (at the 1:48 mark) like this (link below)…watch how fast he gets left and then clear to the backfield. That slide to the left, for a 300+ pound DT (not an undersized 270-280 pound DT) is stunning…special…unique. It’s cued up to the specific play but watch the rest of his tape now or later if you desire. I want to show this one play to carry us a bit on this report (it happens fast, you might need to rewind and watch the same play/example 2-3x)…

Video: https://youtu.be/RaOAONwh-lA?t=108

That ability to just blink and 300+ pounds of humanity is gone, like a ghost…that ability should get him drafted, at least, day two of the NFL Draft – I mean, are you kidding me? 304 pounds with a 36 bench press rep strength and can move like that?

Lopez is potentially the biggest bargain of the 2021 NFL Draft (more on that in a moment).

 -- Yes, he is 36 rep bench press strong. He can not only slide and jab step and shake-and-bake past blockers, but he can go toe-to-toe with them and move them where he wants to go. He’s really a unicorn type DT ability hiding among the (consensus) UDFA rated draft prospects.

 -- Possesses a great spin move ability as well…he’ll get a blocker leaning with him one way and then Lopez will deploy a 360 spin to the inside and be in the backfield.

 -- Plays with high energy/effort most of the time. Doesn’t quit early on plays like many DTs do after their initial surge doesn’t yield ‘fruit’. Chases the run game. doesn’t just try and blitz the backfield every play. He is pretty well rounded.

 -- Off the field… Lopez is a nice, confident, calm demeanor. On the field, he plays with his hair on fire. Always active and quick to celebrate good plays with teammates. He’s the kind of guy you want on your team for many reasons.

 -- I’m a fan. I think he’s one of the three best DT prospects in this draft…worst case, top five. However, he’s more likely to go undrafted.

Roy Lopez, Through the Lens of Our DT Scouting Algorithm:

 -- 2020 PAC-12 1st-team defense at DT.

 -- 21 TFLs in his last 22 games played.

 -- Last 7 games played (2020 season and two games in 2019): 

4.2 tackles, 0.83 TFLs, 0.43 sacks per game = Lopez (last 7 games)

3.5 tackles, 0.86 TFLs, 073 sacks per game = Christian Barmore (2020 season/11 games)

5.6 tackles, 1.69 TFLs, 0.69 sacks per game = Daviyon Nixon (2020 season/8 games)

2021 Pro Day: 

6’1.5”/304, 9.9” hands, 32.0” arms

5.19 40-time, 1.95 20-yd, 1.80 10-yd

4.50 shuttle 7.38 three-cone

36 bench press reps, 31” vertical, 8’9” broad jump

The Historical DT Prospects to Whom Roy Lopez Most Compares Within Our System:

I see more Grady Jarrett than Rakeem Nunez-Roches, but both of them have been working in the league for six years. They’ve ‘made it’ to varying degrees. 

*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DTs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite DT.

All of the DT ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Power-Strength Metrics = A combination of several measurements. An attempt to classify the DT prospect as more of a battle-in-the-trenches type of DT, and/or a DT prospect who has nose tackle capabilities.

Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements. A unique measuring system to look for DTs who profile for quickness, and/or a DT prospect who might have some DE capabilities.

Pass-Rusher Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify whether a particular DT is likely to achieve high sack totals in the NFL. We know the ‘system’/scheme the DT goes on to play in has a part in future success...but so do the player’s skills and performance history.

Tackling Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the DT as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles. Lower scoring DTs in this sub-category tend to be more pure ‘pluggers’, and not as active on the stat sheet. It also gives some insight of the ‘toughness’ of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to).

NT Profile = This is an attempt to show which of these DT prospects has a profile to become a pure nose tackle/‘space-eater’ in the middle. It is not a 1–10 scale rating of a prospect’s skill/profile, it’s an attempt to point us in a direction of what this DT can be useful as (or not). Some DT prospects will grade off the charts on the NT profile, essentially a worst-case scenario of “put him in the middle and just let him be a wall.” There is NFL value in that ‘ability’.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

In my brief looks, I have not seen Lopez graded as a top 300 prospect anywhere. I suspect he’ll go undrafted – but he might sneak into the late day three.

If I were an NFL GM, I see a golden opportunity to take a top 100 overall-like prospect with a late/day three draft pick…or even after the draft. I’d use my, or trade for an extra, early 7th-round pick and grab him instead of worrying about him choosing me as a UDFA.

NFL Outlook:   

He’s going to make it in the league. He’s going to play. A likely uphill battle, but he can make a roster as a low-drafted/UDFA rookie and then he’ll grind his way to a real starting and possible impact DT in the league. 

4/5/2021