NFL Draft 2019 Scouting Report: WR Deebo Samuel, South Carolina

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

I’m having a hard time properly assessing, or better yet, settling on a scouting conclusion with Deebo Samuel. It happens sometimes. It’s impossible to be fully confident on every player you scout…even if you’re ultimately shown to be wrong; it’s nice to be confident going in. I hate being on the fence, but I am with Samuel.

I know everybody loves Samuel, and with good reason. He’s a very good football player. Built compact/sturdy. Runs in the 4.4s. Was a nice producer in college…a good/great receiver (really reliable hands), a nice kick returner (4 return TDs in his career), rushed for 7 TDs, and passed for a couple of scores in his career. There’s a lot to love.

However, every time I put on the tape to watch him, or when I observed him at Senior Bowl practice week – I come away unimpressed (from a ‘top guy’ perspective). I see a reliable hand who has little burst out of the gates, shows a lot of stiffness in his movements (not a natural, fluid athlete…in my book…watching prospects/players all day every day for a decade), which ultimately leads to trouble getting open against better cover athletes…and leaves me wondering how high his ceiling is for the pros.

I want Deebo Samuel on my team/roster…he’s a good player. But am I paying top 50 draft stock price for his skillset? Hell, no.

Two games of Deebo’s stick out in my mind…

1) His 10 catch, 210 yards, 3 TD game against Clemson…which sounds awesome. However, I saw a guy getting constant bubble screens to push numbers early and then having a big play or two later in the rain when his team was getting blown out. To me, this game represented part of his issue…when running short-medium routes, he’s not getting enough separation to make up for mediocre QB play. A quarterback with a gun/meticulous accuracy might make Deebo a star, but otherwise he doesn’t present big openings for his QB to target (against better opponents/coverage).

Anyone can catch a shotgun snap, turn and fire lateral bubble screen/quick pass. I wasn’t as impressed with his ‘great’ Clemson game as I thought I would be.

2) Against Georgia (6-33-0), facing top CB Deandre Baker…Deebo just couldn’t get open. Georgia had no issues locking him down. I didn’t see a top 50 overall player/WR when I watched him against Baker. And I get that Baker is tough for anyone, but so are most NFL corners, and I still want to see some sign of something special when trying to translate him to the next level.

My eyes see nothing but nitpicky stuff with Samuel. His stats versus SEC teams are mediocre…his big games are more against teams like U Mass, South Florida, Chattanooga -- and also his monster game versus Clemson/2018.

I see signs of quality, but I don’t see signs of something special.

Samuel battled injuries his first three seasons, playing 5-10-3 games each season due to injuries ranging from hamstring trouble to a broken fibula/2017. Perhaps, I’m leaning too much on his 2018 tape seeing a guy post fibula that is not at 100%? Possible.

I like Samuel, I think he’s a good hand…but I’m not sure I see the potential stardom that others seem to. It might be there. I see some signs of it in his data, but also see signs of a possible struggle at the next level. I like him, but have questions…so, I’d worry about paying a price for him.

Deebo Samuel, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

16 receiving TDs in four years…5 of them against SEC teams, the other 11 against good D1 or mediocre D1 or FCS level non-conference opponents. 

Had back-to-back games in 2017 with 97-yard kick return TDs (games one and two of the season). Was on his way to a monster 2017 and then broke his fibula after 3 games. 

I’m willing to say Deebo was breaking out in 2016 and was going to be a CFB star in 2017 but for the fibula, and then 2018 was still good…but down/limited early coming off the injury. If I choose to see his career that way…then he’s going to be a good pro for sure with upside.

2019 NFL Combine Measurables…

5’11.2”/21, 10” hands, 31.4” arms

4.48 40-time, 2.66 20-yard, 1.60 10-yard

4.14 shuttle, 7.03 three-cone

15 bench reps, 39” vertical, 10’2” broad

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Deebo Samuel Most Compares Within Our System:

A mix of productive college WRs who were built for the physical, underneath style game in the pros…and some went on to see success as a nice pro WR while others just didn’t have enough juice. I fear there is a hint of that with Deebo…just not enough juice to be good/great at the next level. 

A lot of the guys on this list were beloved ‘good hands’, multifaceted college stars…who had OK to nothing pro careers (so far). 

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Small-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Small-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Small-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics,and rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance. Everything combining to project catch-abilities for the next level.

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

Samuel is normally ranked as a top 50 prospect, ranging from #30-50 in mock drafts. I suspect he will go closer to #50 than #30.

If I were an NFL GM, I would not pay such a high price for Samuel…and, maybe, I’ll be the fool. I just don’t see ‘special’ for sure, I see some worries…and I see WR names who are better available later (like a Stanley Morgan or possibly Andy Isabella goes after Samuel does in the draft)

NFL Outlook:   

Deebo will be taken to play sooner rather than later, and I think coaches will like him…so, he’ll get a good chance to play quickly. He’ll be a good hand, but how good (or bad) depends upon the offense/QB. Samuel is not a game-changer. He’s reliant on the offense/where he gets the ball… I think his style was better suited for the college game and he could get lost in the pros – just a solid #3 WR or nice #4 WR for depth. 

4/11/2019