NFL Draft 2019 Scouting Report: RB James Williams, Washington State

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

-- ‘Quick hit’ scouting is a quick publishing of shorthand notes I had from watching 2-4 games of activity on a prospect this week, and with me already knowing the measurables and where the prospect was drafted. Also, with me having done some brief tape study/work on them and having a computer scouting model grade on them pre-Draft. With the ‘quick hit’, I wanted to do an abridged re-look at certain prospects, post-draft, for any numbers of reasons. – 

Why a re-look here? James Williams had a million catches in college (actually 202), so everyone is marveling at what great receiving back he is…but he played in place where you could catch a million passes – was it his supreme skill, or was he just a victim of (good) circumstance? The NFL seemed to think ‘victim’ because he didn’t get drafted. 

But, now, we’re in the post-Draft, summer period…which means every local analyst/beat writer report on their team’s UDFAs has them winning Rookie of the Year, potentially. For James Williams, he’s now, to the local media, possibly the greatest receiving back in the history of football. 

I got attracted into taking a second look because KC-drafted RB prospect Darwin Thompson is all the ‘sleeper’ rage this past week…which made me wonder why him and not Williams as the one sneaking onto the 53-man roster? No one really trusts Damian Williams or Carlos Hyde (part of why Thompson has such ‘sleeper’ heat right now), so why not the better receiving option in Williams over Thompson (and I know Thompson was drafted, and Williams not…thus the reason for the priority among the masses)?

I looked at two of Williams’s performances, looked over his highlight reel again, and re-looked at his data/background/performance to see if our ‘meh’ to poor scouting model grades pre-Draft were missing out on something.

Here are my shorthand notes, as I took them…

 -- Tore ACL in high school

 -- Very nice, affable, humble young man

 -- I’m watching him vs. Iowa State in his 2018 bowl game (3 carries for 11 yards, 7 rec. for 53 yards)

 -- He is like the James White for Washington State. The easy comp makes sense. 

 -- Decent, willing blocker for his size.

 -- So many receiving reps for this program has made him so natural flaring out of the backfield. His body moves so effortlessly swinging out to the side and catching passes in rhythm and taking off. He’s as well-schooled at this style as anyone in the 2019 NFL Draft.

 -- I’m watching him vs. Washington (11 carries for 65 yards and 2 TDs, 7 catches for 30 yards)

 -- It’s the second time I’ve thought… Darwin Thompson (who I just studied a few days ago) looks slower and less effective in the passing game compared to Williams. If you choose one to be a ‘3rd-down back’, you definitely go Williams. As a three-down back, you’d choose ‘neither’.

 -- Williams is not elusive or fast…just excellent getting into receiving position and going. Kinda like Javorius Allen. 

 -- Side Note: Re-watching Washington State games…Gardner Minshew is really good and really going to surprise people someday. 

 -- Williams has good hands, not great hands. He’s just very comfortable in the passing game, but not like a freak ball catcher that’s WR-like. 

 -- Williams would be good for maybe 2-5 carries a game. He’s not a real ‘runner’. 

 -- Williams cannot move a pile running between the tackles.

 -- Williams reminds me of…James White, Theo Riddick, Javorius Allen, Charles Sims.

 -- Good ‘form’, technician of a receiver but probably not better than many RBs in the passing game…but the others didn’t get the training and opportunity that Williams did. He’s well-trained. 

James Williams, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

 -- Rushed for 100+ yards in a game just once in 39 college games.

 -- Caught 10 or more passes in a game six times in his college career. 

 -- Just 7.1 yards per catch over his career…his passes were like hand-offs to some extent. 

 -- All those big catch games, all the catches in his three-year career…and one game with over 80 yards receiving (163 yards against FCS Montana State). 

 -- Measurables:

5’9.4”/197, 9.25” hands, 30.38” arms

4.58 40-time, 2.65 20-yard time, 1.59 three-cone

4.25 shuttle, 7.01 three-cone

15 bench reps, 36.5” vertical, 9’10” broad jump

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom James Williams Most Compares Within Our System:

Daryl Richardson and Taquan Mizzell are decent comps. Richardson had a moment with the Rams a few years ago, where Jeff Fisher pushed him as ‘the guy’, and that failed miserably. Taquan Mizzell is exponentially better as a receiver than anyone on this list…and he can hardly find work and the Bears just moved him to WR. 

A guy who almost made this list but didn’t make the final cut in the system analysis – D.J. Foster. James Williams, or anyone on this list, are not close to as talented as Foster…and Foster cannot find NFL opportunity – buried on the Cardinals roster. Any team could’ve poached him by now (he’s played for the Pats among others as well before returning to the Cardinals, his first team). 

Why should anyone get excited about Williams when equivalents are available cheap/free all over? Good receiving backs who aren’t very good (for the NFL) running the ball are not ‘rare’. 

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics – then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search – runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect's receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills – it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score =  Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect's ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

*Undrafted, signed with Kansas City*

NFL Outlook:   

I suspect Andy Reid is going to like Williams’s West Coast-style reliability. Totally reliable receiver, just not much more to give after that. Williams can bring a James White element where he just ‘reliabilities’ his way to an NFL career in the right place at the right time. Williams could also get passed up by a Darwin Thompson or Marcus Marshall on the lower-level RB depth chart…because they have some more ‘pop’ in their game. 

In the end, I think Williams has the slight edge for the #3 back in KC (over Darwin Thompson) because he looks so smooth and he’s so reliable. I’m not sure he’ll ever really matter in the football world, but he’s a nice hand to have in the passing game. He won’t hurt you, but I don’t know that he radically helps either. Like Theo Riddick in that way. 

6/2/2019