*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.
A friend in the business turned me on to Turner and thought I should check him out. When I saw Turner’s Pro Day numbers, I was willing to take a deeper-dive – a 5’9+”/226-pound D2 prospect who ran a 4.52 at his Pro Day with 24 bench reps. I’m in!
So I watched a couple of game tapes and his highlight reel and kinda felt the same way each session – pretty good for D2 level, but not sure he’s anything special for the pros. It’s hard to tell just how good Turner is against the backdrop of D2 competition. I mean, 226 pounds and running in the 4.5s…that’s a legit NFL size-speed power combo and he’s rolling over glorified good high school players, for the most part…so, of course he looks great on tape.
Turner was so big and fast…he’d take a carry between the tackles and if he broke a tackle or had a hole wide open hole…he was off to the races. He could either out-run D2 talent or bowl them over. It won’t be so easy in the pros to do the same. However, 5’9+”/226 with 4.5+ speed is NFL-worthy. He can knock some pros over with that size-speed combo.
Besides the difficulty in judging him properly against the D2 backdrop, there are some other issues. Despite the nice 40-time at his Pro Day, the agility times were not good – 4.44 in the shuttle and 7.27 in three cone. His poor agility times almost cancel out his 40-time/bench press/size excitement.
Watching Turner on tape – he runs like a D2 Ezekiel Elliott. Low to the ground. Powerful and always churning forward. Seeking holes to run through or tacklers to try to knock over for extra yards. He definitely has a power running style to match his power running frame. There is hope here.
Turner looks ‘OK’ in the passing game. He only caught 4 passes in 2018 but caught 31 passes in 2017 and was a solid part of the passing plan. He’s good enough in the passing game.
Turner appears to be a quality young person as well. Honor Roll performer in 2017. Smart in interviews, but very humble/hard-working. He’s a salt of the earth type person who seems hungry to prove himself. He’s definitely worth a look at the next level to see just how good he really is.
Xavier Turner, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:
Was a JUCO player 2015-2016, and then transferred to Tarleton. In 2017, he ran the ball for 765 yards and 11 TDs (5.1 ypc) with 31 catches for 174 yards. He was a solid D2 performer. It was 2018 where things changed and got him into the D2 Player of the Year discussions…228 carries, 1.469 yards, 22 TDs in 13 games with 6.4 yards per carry.
Rushed for 3 or more TDs in a game five times in 2018.
No sense trying to isolate any single games or clusters of opponents to analyze for performance trends…all his competition was lower level. No sense studying this too hard…it’s too difficult to call. He wasn’t just OK against D2 defenses, he was quasi-great…so, we at least cannot rule him out as a prospect for the NFL. He did well where he should’ve done well.
2019 Pro Day Measurables…
5’9.5”/226
4.52 40-time, 4.44 shuttle, 7.27 three-cone
24 bench press, 33.5” vertical, 9’3” broad jump
The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Xavier Turner Most Compares Within Our System:
A collection of big bodied RBs who had a moment or two in the pros, or who never were…
|
RB Score |
RB-Re |
RB-ru |
Last |
First |
College |
Yr |
H |
H |
W |
Speed Metric |
Agility Metric |
Power Metric |
|
5.169 |
4.74 |
5.10 |
Turner |
Xavier |
Tarleton St |
2019 |
5 |
9.5 |
226 |
3.72 |
2.14 |
9.31 |
|
3.876 |
0.63 |
2.80 |
Crowell |
Isaiah |
Alabama St |
2014 |
5 |
11.0 |
224 |
2.22 |
-1.63 |
7.62 |
|
2.845 |
2.21 |
1.44 |
Gray |
Jonas |
Notre Dame |
2012 |
5 |
9.7 |
225 |
3.14 |
3.83 |
6.27 |
|
2.882 |
1.29 |
2.49 |
Daniels |
LeShun |
Iowa |
2017 |
5 |
10.7 |
222 |
-2.12 |
-3.39 |
7.02 |
|
3.546 |
0.93 |
2.84 |
Judd |
Akeem |
Ole Miss |
2017 |
5 |
10.6 |
225 |
-1.54 |
-5.91 |
7.46 |
*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.
All of the RB ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.
Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.
*RB-Re score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL, and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.
*RB-Ru score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify a RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.
Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.
Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.
2019 NFL Draft Outlook:
His Pro Day wasn’t good enough to get him in the draft conversation.
If I were an NFL GM, I would consider him for a UDFA call…but I see several other more athletically talented RB prospects that will be available in the UDFA signing period. Turner definitely deserves a shot/a look, however.
NFL Outlook:
An uphill battle ahead. We’ll see how he performs this preseason when he finally faces competition/athletes on his level.
4/8/2019
