Scouting Report: QB Justice Hansen, Arkansas St.

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

Someone sent me some tape of Justice Hansen in December, and when I viewed a minute or two, just to get a feel for what was happening, I was instantly impressed. What I saw in those few minutes of tape pushed me to further study Hansen and run his data through our scouting models.

Sadly, once I took a deeper look…I ‘folded’. There is some raw talent here but too many issues/red flags to get past and too much development left to do for a legitimate shot in the NFL. Hansen would be great for like an NFL developmental league to see if you can clean up his flaws…but, alas, that opportunity doesn’t currently exist. Maybe he’ll be in the XFL or CFL.

There are some encouraging things to view on tape. Hansen has a hell of an arm. Very natural and powerful. You look at a 0:30 second clip of some of his best throws, and you’d be very interested. He has a baseball player’s grace and mechanics throwing a football like it’s a baseball…like a great shortstop.

When you see the arm that goes with a 6’3”+/220+ body…that gets scouts excited, and then you see him running the ball with that big frame…400+ yards rushing in each of the past two seasons with 13 rushing TDs in that span…and you think there’s a nice lump of clay to mold here. Knowing he began his career at Oklahoma also piques the interest.

Hansen began his college journey as a highly sought-after high school QB who was expected to be a starter for Oklahoma after a redshirt year. Plans were changed when a guy by the name of Baker Mayfield transferred to OU. Hansen transferred to Arkansas State.

Hansen was expected to be the ASU starter right away, but they also got another transfer who stole the starting job from Hansen to begin the 2016 season. Arkansas State lost its first two games of 2016, Hansen was shoved in for their third loss to start 2016. Hansen then struggled in their fourth game/loss…to an FCS Central Arkansas team.

With an 0-4 start to 2016 and Hansen on a bit of a hot seat, ASU would go on to win their next 6 games in a row and would win the Sun Belt title – and a bowl bid where they beat 2016 Central Florida, with Hansen dropping 3 TDs/0 INTs on the future (2017) uncrowned national champions.

After losing his first two starts, Hansen would go 23-11 over three seasons for Arkansas State with a 23-11 record and three straight bowl appearances, racking up 79 TDs/30 TDs.

It all sounds like a nice resume, and it is, but Hansen has some issues.

Hansen has nice physical tools, but his QB play is lacking – mostly him throwing check downs, bubble screens, or air mail bombs down the sidelines. Everything is simple/requiring little true/NFL decision making in the passing game. Rarely will you see Hansen reading defenses and picking apart defenses all over, especially over the middle. He plays a very simplistic style of passing attack…it works in college and produces nice numbers because he can whistle short passes in a blink and has the arm to chuck it deep. He just doesn’t have the NFL-desired prowess to work a pure pocket passing game…and he can run, but he’s not that fast – he’s college fast.

Sadly, Hansen seems like a really neat, perfect mid-major college QB…and that’s where the story likely ends.

Justice Hansen, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:

Hansen’s numbers start to buckle when the competition gets stiffer. He lost 3 conference games this year, and then a bowl game to Nevada…his numbers in those 4 games: 2 TDs/7 INTs. You can’t be taken seriously as a sleeper prospect struggling against ‘good’ mid-major competition.

Against teams with losing records in and out of conference: 18 TDs/0 INTs.

Against an FCS opponent (SE Mo State): 6 TDs/1 INT

He’s just a really good, nice college QB…one with raw NFL physical tools but not the knack for playing the position for the NFL.  

The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Justice Hansen Most Compares Within Our System:

Charlie Whitehurst and Tim Couch comps…simplistic passer like Couch was (ahead of his time in college, a bit, but exposed in the NFL) and Whitehurst the kinda big, kinda mobile guy who had moments. It makes sense for Hansen to share their vibe.

*“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.

**A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite. 

QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys. 

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

Not going to be drafted but will get a training camp invite for sure. There’s enough arm talent for a look. 

If I were an NFL GM, I’d love to have time to work with him/develop him for a few years and see if I can make something…but we don’t have that kind of time in the NFL.

NFL Outlook:   

Gets a training camp invite. Might sit on a practice squad for a bit and is forgotten in a few years. If he were serious about pro football – he should go straight to Canada. 

1/23/2019