*DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
Here’s the main case for Dexter Lawrence as a high draft pick in the NFL…
What’s a more impressive physical feat?
Ed Oliver running a 40-time in the 4.7s at 287 pounds, or…
Quinnen Williams running a 40-time in the 4.8s at 303 pounds, or…
Dexter Lawrence dropping a 5.05 40-time at 343 pounds?
Yes, they are all impressive…but if you adjust for weight and look at the 40-times – would you want to discuss Lawrence as a top 5-10 draft pick based on his size-speed? What if you got Lawrence to 330 pounds and he could run a 4.9 time?
Despite the unusual speed for his size, Lawrence isn’t treated as a prospect on the same level as Oliver or Williams. Why? A few reasons…
-- Lawrence is certainly fast and nimble for his size. He’s an NFL weapon…an NFL starter talent, but as great as his speed his for his size – Lawrence is still a 5.0+ runner. He’s not chasing down ballcarriers all over. His game is limited between the tackles…even if he is a little faster than most big DTs.
-- If I showed you the list of 330+ pound DTs who ran a 5.05-5.10 or better pre-Draft 40-time (fewer than five), you wouldn’t care about any of them. Dontari Poe the fastest at that size (4.98) and he’s made money/been useful in the NFL but was never a high impact player.
-- Lawrence has been nicked up a few times the past couple years -- causing some concerns. He played 2017 with a foot injury all season. He hurt his quad at the NFL Combine. He’s a big guy hauling around a lot of mass…and possibly has his effectiveness compromised over the weeks and years with these nagging injuries to go along with the size.
-- Suspended late 2018 season for a banned PED substance.
It’s really not a question of how good Lawrence is. You could predict his effectiveness pretty easily in the NFL – he’s an instant starter, better athlete than most at his position, can work 4-3 but is a stud 3-4 nose tackle. He’ll start for an NFL team long-term and be fine. Unless… He is constantly bothered by injury and he’s a solid hand when he’s ‘right’ but needs to be rotated or replaced too often. He doesn’t hurt a team, but he may not be worth the high draft pick investment. You can find other big, athletic-ish bodies to jam up the middle.
Lawrence is a friendly personality, hardworking, comes from a great pedigree (five-star guy out of high school, Clemson award-winning DT). He’s a solid talent for sure, but will you get the ROI you want using a top 20-30 pick on a plugger nose tackle?
Dexter Lawrence, Through the Lens of Our DT Scouting Algorithm:
2018 was a mostly injury-free season…coming off the 2017 foot injury that hindered him all season (supposedly) but a 2018 possibly enhanced with PEDs, and in his best year -- he averaged just 1.1 solo tackles per game and had just 1.5 total sacks in 13 games on a defensive line loaded with talent. Is this a top 30 draft pick-worthy spend?
Had 0 or 1 solo tackles in a game in 10 of his 13 games in 2018.
Just 3.5 sacks in his last 25 games.
2019 NFL Combine Measurables…
6’4.4”/342, 10.5” hands, 34.8” arms
5.05 40-yard, 1.76 10-yard
36 bench press
DNP…agility, vertical, broad
The Historical DT Prospects to Whom Dexter Lawrence Most Compares Within Our System:
Lawrence compares to past/current solid/useful defensive tackles…bigger DTs who were above average athletic, and after their draft year – no one really cared. But they’ve had solid NFL careers, or at least seem on their way to them.
|
DT Grade |
Last |
First |
Draft Yr |
College |
H |
W |
Power Strgth |
Speed Agility |
Pass Rusher |
Tackle rating |
NT Profile |
|
7.046 |
Lawrence |
Dexter |
2019 |
Clemson |
76.4 |
342 |
10.96 |
6.01 |
8.05 |
5.87 |
11.01 |
|
5.231 |
Poe |
Dontari |
2012 |
Memphis |
76.1 |
346 |
12.71 |
4.31 |
5.30 |
5.48 |
13.75 |
|
7.845 |
Taylor |
Phil |
2011 |
Baylor |
75.2 |
334 |
9.29 |
4.50 |
4.72 |
6.76 |
8.73 |
|
6.270 |
Vea |
Vita |
2018 |
Washington |
76.0 |
347 |
12.60 |
5.60 |
7.64 |
6.73 |
13.89 |
|
1.285 |
Soliai |
Paul |
2007 |
Utah |
76.0 |
344 |
8.81 |
3.61 |
4.71 |
3.77 |
7.78 |
*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DTs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite DT.
All of the DT ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.
Power-Strength Metrics = A combination of several measurements. An attempt to classify the DT prospect as more of a battle-in-the-trenches type of DT, and/or a DT prospect who has nose tackle capabilities.
Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements. A unique measuring system to look for DTs who profile for quickness, and/or a DT prospect who might have some DE capabilities.
Pass-Rusher Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify whether a particular DT is likely to achieve high sack totals in the NFL. We know the ‘system’/scheme the DT goes on to play in has a part in future success...but so do the player’s skills and performance history.
Tackling Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the DT as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles. Lower scoring DTs in this sub-category tend to be more pure ‘pluggers’, and not as active on the stat sheet. It also gives some insight of the ‘toughness’ of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to).
NT Profile = This is an attempt to show which of these DT prospects has a profile to become a pure nose tackle/‘space-eater’ in the middle. It is not a 1–10 scale rating of a prospect’s skill/profile, it’s an attempt to point us in a direction of what this DT can be useful as (or not). Some DT prospects will grade off the charts on the NT profile, essentially a worst-case scenario of “put him in the middle and just let him be a wall.” There is NFL value in that ‘ability’.
2019 NFL Draft Outlook:
Guys like Lawrence get drafted in the first round – big, athletic, big-name school. He goes top 30.
If I were an NFL GM, I’d pass on him as a top 50 or so pick. There are plenty of guys from smaller schools who are big that can clog the middle of a D-Line as a 4-3 or 3-4 DT prospect. I’d be fine with Lawrence on my team, but I’m not paying up for him. I’m not using a 1st-round pick on ‘solid’ (and ‘forgettable’).
NFL Outlook:
Top 30 pick, instant starter, is a solid player, 4-5 years later is a free agent and signs a nice deal to go to another team…as these types of DT tends to do.
4/1/2019
