NFL Draft 2019 Scouting Report: CB Greedy Williams, LSU

*CB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available. 

Greedy Williams seems to be the consensus #1 cornerback prospect in the 2019 NFL Draft. I don’t think it’s illogical, but I see other CB prospects grading as well/better in our system analysis. Watching him on tape, he’s not the best cover corner I’ve seen in this class…but he’s good.

It sounds crazy, but I absolutely believe it – the reason why most everyone has ‘Greedy’ #1 among their CB prospects is, in part, he has the recognizable, cool nickname…’Greedy’. Easy to remember/recall. If he were Larry Williams, perhaps there might be more diversity of thought regarding the #1 CB prospect in this draft. If it’s not ‘Greedy’, you might see some ‘Rock Ya-Sin’ claims…again, it helps to have a standout name at positions people don’t scout as hard/know as well.

I like Greedy just fine. I think he’s an instant starter in the NFL Week 1 in 2019. I think he’ll be a good cover corner in the league. I’m not sold he’s the clear best in the 2019 class, but he is in the discussion.

Three games stand out for me in my notes on Greedy…

1) Facing D.K. Metcalf/Ole Miss in 2018.

Everyone will watch this game and use it as their main measuring stick. I’d say most internet analysts either have never really studied Williams’ work (or CB prospects in general, ever) or they looked at this Ole Miss tape of Greedy v. D.K, and saw that Metcalf was held to 3 catches for 35 yards and no TDs…and they’ll equate that with: Williams must be awesome to hold down the awesome D.K. Metcalf.

The whole premise is flawed…

Metcalf is a really poor wide receiver, technically. An athletic freak but a guy who ran the same predictable route (go deep) almost every snap. Williams knew that and just backpedaled into it every time. Metcalf could have caught 50 passes in the game if he ran short routes/saw quick passes…but Metcalf was sent deep almost every play all season, and Greedy knew that. It was an easy cover for Greedy. I don’t even really count this game as a ‘credit’ to Williams because Metcalf is so predictable.

Kudos to Williams for battling Metcalf tough in the red zone in this game. That’s a thing to like with Williams – 6’1.5” height and can hang with taller receivers.

2) Facing Georgia 2018.

Williams was mostly on Riley Ridley, and Ridley is nothing more than a better than average college WR out there…and Williams handled him pretty well. Ridley has quickness to juke around and get open, and Williams stuck with him fairly well. Ridley was open a decent amount, but the Georgia passing game made little sense to me every time I watched this offseason. A better QB might have worked Ridley-Williams a bit more, but 2018 Georgia did not.

3) Facing Auburn 2018.

Jarrett Stidham was the best passing QB that Williams faced in 2018. Stidham didn’t seem to fear Williams, but Auburn’s receivers were pretty flimsy all season and Stidham was working some clever back shoulder work, etc., to mixed results on Williams…with a lot of the blame on the receivers.

Within that context…I thought Williams handled Stidham’s push at him pretty well. It was rare for teams to challenge Williams in 2018, so the Auburn game gives more spotlight – and Williams is seen stride for stride and comfortable covering whatever came his way. Stidham got him once or twice, and Williams also learned from early back shoulder attempts and picked one off later in the game.

With Williams you’re getting a confident cover guy who played in the top college conference against top WR bodies and did very well for two years of play. He has the size you love (6’1”+) with speed you love…4.37 40-time.

The downside is Williams is a thinner CB prospect at 182 pounds and just 8 bench press reps, but those are two things that can be fixed – he could add 8 pounds of muscle this offseason and be a monster.

Williams seems to be a pleasant enough person off the field and a hard worker but should’ve put more work into his body instead of just relying on his feet/quickness/skills. He might have been a top 10 prospect with 8 more pounds of muscle. Not doing that might have cost him millions…so, it’s logical to question his mindset a bit.

He’s not a very enthusiastic tackler either, more of a ‘diva corner’ who wants to run around and cover versus making hits, which is OK for the great cover guys but Williams may just be very good-not-great.

Williams overall resume and skill set works in the NFL. He’s worthy, but how big his upside is – that’s in question not just by me but also by many scouts I’ve talked to.

Greedy Williams, Through the Lens of Our CB Scouting Algorithm:

Tested as a freshman/2017, right away, and responded with six interceptions (#1 in the SEC) and 10 PDs (#4 in the SEC) in 13 games…a season that put him on the map. 

Toughest matchups 2018…

3 catches, 35 yards, no TDs = Metcalf, Ole Miss (almost exclusively on Metcalf, because DKM lines up same spot and runs same route about every play)

3 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD = Ridley, Georgia (not always on Ridley)

3 catches, 33 yards, 1 TD = Darrius Slayton, Auburn (not always on Slayton)

2019 NFL Combine/Pro Day Measurables…

6’1.5”/182, 9.25” hands, 31.5” arms

4.37 40-time, 2.56 20-yard, 1.51 10-yard

DNP agility drills

8 bench reps, 36” vertical, 10’4” broad jump (all at Pro Day)

The Historical CB Prospects to Whom Greedy Williams Most Compares Within Our System:

Williams tracks/comps with corners who were well graded by most scouts in prior years, and who went on to find quick success/starting roles in the NFL. The bonus…Williams is an inch+ taller than all these comp prospects.

*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0

OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college CBs, with a focus on which CBs went on to be good-great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL CBs had in common in college, that most other CB prospects could not match/achieve.

Scoring with a rating over a 7.00+ in our system is where we start to take a CB prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL successful college CBs scored 8.00+, and most of the NFL superior CBs pushed scores more in the 9.00+ levels...and future NFL busts will sneak in there from time to time. 10.00+ is where most of the elite NFL CBs tend to score in our system analysis.

COVERAGE -- A combination of on-field data/performance and physical profile data

SPEED -- Measurables from a perspective of straight-line speed, burst, etc.

AGILITY -- Measurables for lateral movements, quick cuts, body type, speed, etc. 

POWER -- A look at physical size, tackling productivity in college, other physical measurables. One of the side benefits/intentions here, is to see which CBs may be more of a model for a conversion to playing safety successfully in the NFL. Also denotes CBs who are more physical/will have higher tackle totals...over pure speed/coverage CBs.

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

Williams started out as a top 10 prospect but he’s falling back to a #15-30 type pick lately. I get it…because there are other options to consider for a cheaper price and Greedy is good but has some question marks. Everyone knows he’s ‘good’ but there is debate on ‘great’, and how you should price that. I suspect he goes #13-25 overall. 

If I were an NFL GM, I see a few other corner prospects I like as good/better, at a much better draft price, so I’d ‘pass’ but I think Williams will be fine/good/OK…just overpriced.

NFL Outlook:   

Drafted 1st-round. Becomes an instant starter. Does fine. Could be a Pro Bowl player at some point. I think Greedy’s career trajectory can be set by seeing him in August 2019…did he add a bunch of muscle or did he stay thin-framed – that may give you an idea on how badly he wants to be great.

4/15/2019