NFL Draft 2018 Scouting Report: RB Chase Edmonds, Fordham

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

You see a 5’9”/205-pound RB prospect out of Fordham and your brain starts to discount him immediately. In order for me to take him seriously,” I thought, “He better run in the 4.3s …. When he posted a 4.55 40-time at the Combine, I moved on to anything and everything else. Too many other bigger, D1 running back prospects to consider.

When we started inputting all the 2018 Combine data, an interesting development – Edmonds started out the process as our highest computer-graded ‘speed’ (smaller) RB prospect. I’m not sure how that’s possible running a 4.55 40-time at 205-pounds. So I started taking a deeper look and things got interesting. Edmonds isn’t as easily discountable a prospect as I thought at first blush.

Sure, he ran a 4.55 40-time, but he also posted terrific agility times – a 6.79 three-cone and a 4.07 short shuttle. The tape backs that up…he moves east-west as well as any RB in this draft class. He’s almost gliding on skates going to left-to-right. He’s has impressive, NFL-level movement.

He’s tough too, for a 205-pound FCS RB – 19 bench reps at the Combine. The tape reveals a physical-enough runner with terrific balance. He can take hits and stay balanced and moving forward…OR more impressively, he takes hits and then spins and dances with great balance to turn a seemingly dead play into something more exciting. He’s very evasive with his shifty feet and then tough enough to maintain balance taking hits…he evades so well that he doesn’t normally take on full hits. He dodges a lot of trouble, taking glancing blows that seemed like sure tackles. He’s an impressive runner for his size and FCS label.

You call an FCS, 205-pound RB an ‘impressive runner’ and you might think it’s nice -- but Edmonds’s ‘impressive’ needs more definition. The fifth all-time rusher for a career in FCS history…doing so while missing 4 games in 2017 with ankle and hamstring issues… he was never fully right in 2017 and played on a pretty weak team as well. A fully healthy Edmonds, in 2014-2016 – three straight 1,600+ yard rushing seasons. Five 200+ yard rushing games and two 300+ yard rushing efforts. 37 games played in 2014-2016, and 62 rushing TDs…1.7 rushing TDs per game.

I only take FCS RBs seriously if they’ve utterly destroyed their competition. Edmonds checks that box. You can get faked out by his weak 2017, but again – he battled minor injuries and was getting the entire defense stackedagainst him on a bad team with bad blocking.

Most of his body of work is against other FCS schools, so it’s hard to project him to the NFL watching the tape. He faced three D1 schools in 2014-2016…one game each season -- Army, Army, and Navy. They stacked the line against him pretty well. He went 18-70-0 vs. Navy in 2016, and 13-69-0 vs. Army in 2014 as a freshman. His 2015 game vs. Army was pretty nice – 19 carries for 126 yards and 3 TDs, 6 catches for 140 yards, 266 total yards from scrimmage.

Watching him against D1 opponents, he held his own against defenses gearing up for him. I wasn’t dazzled or amazed, but I saw NFL abilities with his side-to-side movements and ability to take and give hits. He has decent hands; not great/not bad. He’s just a nice, scrappy, high-effort player. A solid member of an NFL team…a legit NFL prospect, but not a top NFL prospect.

Edmonds is a very mature, classy person off the field. A multiple time Honor Roll student and team captain and dedicated to his physical conditioning. You’re not getting a superstar, but you’re getting a very solid, nice, useful player who might just surprise with how well he does perform at the next level.

Chase Edmonds, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

Led the FCS in 2016 with 163.5 yards rushing per game. Won the Jerry Rice Award in 2014 for FCS’s top rookie performer. A multiple time all-American at the FCS level. 

Yards per carry per season, 2014 to 2017: 6.3, 6.6, 7.0, 4.2. The 4.2 coming in his injury-shortened campaign in 2017. 

Posted 2,000+ yards from the line of scrimmage in 2015 and 2016…in 2015, catching 31 passes for 383 yards and 5 TDs to go along with his gaudy rushing totals. 

Ran for 100+ yards in a game in nine of his first 10 college games as a freshman. 

The summary -- in 2014-2016, Edmonds was a pretty dominant running back for the FCS. 2017 throws his whole vibe off a bit. 

2018 NFL Combine measurables…

5’9.1”/201, 31.13” arms, 9.0” hands

4.55 40-time, 2.66 20-yard, 1.58 10-yard, 4.07 shuttle, 6.79 three-cone

19 bench reps, 34.0” vertical, 10’2” broad jump

Edmonds posted the fastest shuttle and three-cone times of any RB at the 2018 NFL Combine. 

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Chase Edmonds Most Compares Within Our System:

Bobby Rainey is a pretty good comparison…he had flashes of success at the pro level but was mostly a backup/complementary NFL RB. I don’t think Edmonds is LeSean McCoy shifty but it’s interesting to see LeSean here considering Edmonds’ great strength(s)/attributes – shifty and keeping balance at/around 205-pounds.

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics – then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search – runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing in 2018. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect's receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills – it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing in 2018. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect's ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2018 NFL Draft Outlook:

There’s a chance Edmonds doesn’t get drafted…considering the bias against non-D1 talents in general. However, him getting a Combine invite and likely being a great interview with teams behind closed doors plus his nice agility times and bench press for his size – I say he goes 5th round.

If I were an NFL GM, I wouldn’t draft an RB who I didn’t think had a chance to be a superstar. The position is too deep in generically ‘good’ talent. I’d love to add Edmonds as a UDFA guy, but I wouldn’t draft him. The ‘star’ potential is not there in a deep position of talent in the NFL.

NFL Outlook:   

I hope he gets a shot and seizes the moment and becomes a reliable part of an RBBC and a fan favorite. He’s that kind guy…ignored nationally, beloved locally.

3/22/2018