NFL Draft 2018 Scouting Report: RB Derrius Guice, LSU

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

Sometimes in this scouting game you just don’t like a prospect – and one of those guys for me is Derrius Guice. Don’t like him from what I see from a personal standpoint – as an interviewer/as a prospective employer, I don’t want to invest in the Guice brand. Besides the personal, just from a football talent perspective, and based the lofty price tag it will take, I see things that make me nervous.

I don’t think he’s a bad NFL prospect at all. He’s pretty easy to summarize…

Straight-ahead runner, a workhorse between the tackles – very sturdy, tough, doesn’t go down easily (although it gets a bit overblown how hard he is to tackle). He loses a lot of juice when he goes east-west…I really don’t like his feet when he changes direction from the hand-off…he loses precious time with slower maneuvers early. He’s shiftier and quicker with a full head of steam but his strengths are more geared to between-the-tackles work… and the NFL desires that talent so he’ll be fine (if his O-Line is good). He can catch the ball well. You can start Guice all three downs and have a B-C grade running back depending upon what the line gives. He could be an ‘A’ interior runner with a great O-Line…or a ‘D’ with the opposite of that.

Everyone believes Guice is a good-to-great NFL prospect talent, and I’m in that camp but more on the low-end side of the scale…but I’m kinda with the crowd on his skills. Kinda…sorta.

The issue is not his on-field skills and debating whether he is a B+ or C+ talent…it’s off the field. I see red flags all over this one…

They talk about Guice’s tough/rough background growing up, but that alone is not a reason to single him out. However, how rough it was…where his mindset was developed…the ripple effects in his family -- it might lead to problems down the road. His father was murdered when he was a young kid (shot in the head). His brother was recently arrested for attempted murder. You worry about what things are swirling around in Guice’s head from such surroundings…not his fault, but you have to consider it here.

About a year ago, he posted and quickly deleted a social media picture with his mom celebrating her brand new Range Rover…everyone questioned how that was possible considering her income, etc. Guice would not be the first college athlete on the take.

None of these things I’ve just listed means Guice is a bad kid, a ticking time bomb, or a bad football prospect. But it puts you on guard.

Then, I look at his social media…and there’s too many things that NFL teams, and evaluators (like me) aren’t going to like – considering we worry about his mindset to begin with.

I watched tape of Guice getting interviewed on NFL Network at the NFL Combine…that dumb thing where they pull a prospect aside, put his social media up and pick things to ask him about. It’s all light-hearted but then I see Guice light up when they ask him about his music career and the agent group he signed with – a new sports agency group with history representing popular musicians…they signed Guice as their first client and must have talked with/promised him about releasing an album. He seemed to love his nonexistent music career more than football at that moment.

If any quarterback prospect had these same things/distractions in their background…it would be big news, a big negative. It’s not discussed with Guice. I get it – he’s not a QB, so less important (in theory), plus people worry about ‘racism’ when these things are discussed/broached. But you have to consider all the little things on these guys before you shove them a ton of money. You have to ask it about Caucasian Johnny Manziel or Baker Mayfield and I think it’s warranted to discuss things about Guice before you invest millions of dollars. The only color that matters is ‘green’ here. Will Guice be focused on football? Will he change with the money? All legit questions to ask of every prospect, but Guice has a giant arrow pointing at him to make you dig in deeper and ask it about him.

Guice is currently notorious for talking publicly about NFL teams asking questions pertaining to his sexuality and his mother’s proclivities. Neither should be asked; there are better ways to test Guice’s mettle, but it also made me wonder – NFL teams must have really been honing in on Guice’s background to start hitting him with such wild questions. I think the NFL’s antenna is raised. Mine is too.

Guice hasn’t had any real issues in school. He was a good enough student. He has no record of major off-field issues…but issues are swirling around his periphery and it is a reason for concern and investigation. He’s not so special and the running back position is not so devoid of talent that you have to take a big gamble on Guice if there are too many concerns. I think most NFL teams are going to have concerns.

Derrius Guice, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

People say Guice played hurt in 2017 and that’s why his numbers were down versus 2016. I watched tape of Guice in 2016 and 2017…he looked fine/the same on both. The patterns to his output seemed pretty similar in 2016 and 2017 – some huge games and some OK games. The huge games tended to come against non-conference opponents or lower SEC teams and the ‘OK’ games seemed to manifest against better SEC teams.

Against Alabama, Florida, Miss State, Auburn, Wisconsin, Notre Dame in 2016-2017, in ten games total with them (2016-2017), Guice tallied 122 carries for 541 yards 4.43 yards per carry and 1 rushing TD. He did not have a single game with 100+ yards rushing against that group. 

Almost half of his 29 career rushing TDs came against Texas A&M, Arkansas, and two FCS teams (14 TDs total).  

There’s reason for concern that Guice is more of a great college RB and not ready for the pros…on a number of levels. 

2018 NFL Combine measurables…

5’10.4”/224, 30.75” arms, 9.0” hands

4.49 40-time, DNP agility drills (worried about why)

15 bench reps, 31.5” vertical

Besides the 4.49 40-time at 224-pounds, I don’t love a lot of the rest of these numbers. 

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Derrius Guice Most Compares Within Our System:

You can’t make this up... I ran a comparable system check on Guice and almost all the RBs that came back have had various ‘issues’ in the NFL off the field. I did not put a comparison in for red flag counts, I strictly match them for size and talent evaluations. Just so happened Guice fell in with ‘the wrong crowd’. 

If he’s Ezekiel Elliott…no one will care (until suspended). I wouldn’t rule out good-great performance with a great team O-Line. I wouldn’t rule out Terrance West’s career arc either. 

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL, and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify a RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2018 NFL Draft Outlook:

Guice has a lot of top 50 overall momentum but I have a feeling he’ll fall to 50+ because of the background concerns.

If I were an NFL GM, I just ‘pass’. If I’m wrong…so be it. I’m in the business of looking for greatness AND the risk mitigation for my money. Guice isn’t that special a talent to justify taking the risks on his red flags.

NFL Outlook:   

I think Guice is probably headed for some issues in the NFL. He’ll be distracted off the field when he isn’t a superstar on it. If he does hit with a whirlwind, he then might struggle handling success. I hope I’m wrong, but I fear where this career might go…a career that doesn’t live up to the draft R.O.I. 

3/14/2018