NFL Draft 2018 Scouting Report: OLB Shaquem Griffin, Central Florida

*Our LB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

There’s a lot to sort out with Shaquem Griffin’s scouting…

A player once thought to be a UDFA option (in December-January) captured the media’s attention and got himself into the draft picture with great Senior Bowl week, but then got jumped into the top 100 draft scene with his impressive/shocking 4.38 40-time at the NFL Combine.

Three things are rattling around in evaluator’s heads…

A 2016 AAC Defensive Player of the Year talent/producer.

A media sensation story over playing one-handed…overcoming the odds.

…but the nagging thought that -- playing with one hand has to be limiting at the next level, and what if he is a giant bust in the NFL because of it?

I began this process in January thinking his hand issue would be an issue. Then I watched him work fine at the Senior Bowl and was blown away by his Combine and decided not only was it NOT an issue, but that the issue itself was actually underselling how good Griffin is.

Then I watched several game tapes in depth this week, and I started to fall back into – there might be a problem here.

Let’s dive right into that – Griffin does have an issue playing one-handed…and it’s not worries about catching the ball. The more I watched play after play…I could see that he struggled in close quarters trying to shed a block at the line because he couldn’t get that extra leverage to push away a blocker. He also missed/lost some tackles because he couldn’t wrap up as well. I was surprised to see how much his hand issue affected his tackling ability -- because he has good tackle tallies in college.

The position Griffin played for UCF somewhat masked the issue, but also took his gifts and turbocharged them. Griffin is extremely quick and UCF would often line him up on the edge (or anywhere really) to rush the backfield…and his elite speed and quickness was often no match for an AAC right tackle (or anyone else). Griffin moves around well…so when pursuit was needed…Griffin was like a cheetah getting to it. UCF let him be a playmaker…and his numbers reflected the advantage…smart of the coaches.

The problem is, I don’t see Griffin playing the same style in the NFL. I don’t think NFL teams will line him up for constant pressure off the edge. They’ll use him as more of a 4-3 LB…dropping into coverage, playing the run, and an occasional surprise pass rush.  It’s possible Griffin is going to struggle some as a traditional NFL linebacker.

The dilemma is – do you allow for some missed plays/tackles in order to get the benefit of his extreme quickness as a ‘chaser’, surprise pass rusher, and coverage skills? More and more I wonder if safety might be a better fit for Griffin. Will an NFL team allow him some grace and try to use him as a freelance ‘chaser’ of things because he’s so good at it?

The NFL tends to be more traditional and pees their pants when they see three negative things – a fumble, a dropped pass, a botched tackle. A player can do 99% of things great but do one of those three things and in the doghouse you go.

Griffin has a skillset for the NFL. His athleticism/speed and pursuit is terrific. It can be used for an impact, but it has to be dispatched in the right way…playing to his strengths and keeping him away from close quarters/hand battling at the line of scrimmage. Let him use his speed to make plays. He’s going to have a miscue or a disadvantage here and there but so do most players…it’s just so many eyes are on Griffin because of his hand issue/story. He should be productive, but there will be some risk it won’t work.

Otherwise, Griffin is a good kid and a hard worker. He’s going to be great for the locker room and community, and fan base. He’ll sell a ton of jerseys. He’s a net positive player as long as his occasional struggles don’t become the focus.

Shaquem Griffin, Through the Lens of Our OLB Scouting Algorithm:

His 2016 season as AAC Defensive Player of the Year was really masterful, statistically – 92 tackles, 20.0 TFLs, 11.5 sacks, 7 PDs, 2 FF. Griffin’s ability to get to the ball/ballcarriers/get to the QB is wonderful…I still wonder if he can play that same style off the edge in the NFL. I don’t think he does. 

Griffin had 2.0 or more TFLs in a game seven times the last two seasons. 

Two bowl appearances in his career – 9.5 tackles, 2.25 TFLs, 1.0 sacks per game. 

2018 NFL Combine measurables…

6’0.3”/227, 9” hand, 32.13” arm

4.38 40-time1.54 10-yard, (Pro Day) 6.95 three-cone

20 bench reps, 9’9” broad jump, 35.5” vertical

The Historical OLB Prospects to Whom Shaquem Griffin Most Compares Within Our System:

The Kevin Pierre-Louis comp could be a bad omen. KPL was a highly athletic, productive OLB that put up stats due to his ability to chase the action, but in the NFL he could never find a true spot – good athlete, not the most instinctual position player…better as a run-react on special teams. That could be where Griffin is headed – role player. 

*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of LBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite LB.

All of the LB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Tackle-Strength Metrics = A combination of several physical and performance measurements. An attempt to classify the LB prospect's ability to stop the run, as well as a gauge of how physical the player is and the likelihood of higher tackle counts in the NFL. All based on profiles of LBs historically.

Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, and size measurements...as well as game performance data to profile an LB for speed/agility based on LBs historically. A unique measuring system to look for LBs that profile for quickness, pass-coverage ability, and general ability to cover more ground.

Pass Rush Metrics = A combination of the physical measurements, but also proven on-field ability to get to the QB/backfield in college.

2018 NFL Draft Outlook:

I think Griffin has worked his way into the top 100. He deserves it with his foot speed alone mixed with his college output. Factor in the great backstory – he’s a top 100 guy all day.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d have an interest in Griffin for sure, but the backstory likely gets him pushed into the top 60-80 and I don’t think I’d want to pay that kind of price for a great college rusher of the backfield that probably won’t be that guy in the pros. I’d like to have him on my team but I’m not overpaying to get him.

NFL Outlook:   

He either struggles a bit and is an off and on player and nice special teams guy…possibly moved to safety at some point. Or…his speed/movement skills rule the day and he becomes a good+ NFL player and one of the best stories ever to happen in the league – I hope he rules and is an inspiration for thousands of kids and adults. 

4/22/2018