*CB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available.
Isaiah Oliver is in that argument for best not-Denzel Ward or Minkah Fitzpatrick CB prospect for 2018. Usually, he’s rated behind Jaire Alexander and Mike Hughes and Josh Jackson but in the same range… and some like him enough to push him past 1 or 2 of them. He’s in ‘that discussion’.
Should he be?
He’s the biggest CB of the aforementioned group…6’0”/201. He has the speed…4.50 40-time. Nice agility times (3.94 shuttle, 6.85 three-cone). Physically, he could be called the leader of the Alexander-Hughes-Jackson-Oliver pack…the non-Ward-Fitzpatrick debate.
The tape was a little bit of a mixed bag for me, but not bad.
On the positive…
I couldn’t help but notice that both Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold stayed as far away from Oliver as they could. Darnold pushed it a bit more but Rosen acted like Oliver’s side of the field didn’t exist on most of his drop backs against them in 2017. I like that Oliver is willing to get up on receivers and cover them tight off the snap. You can see very fluid movement with him…the sweet agility times at the Combine get confirmed on the tape.
On the negative side…
After watching/studying the Alexander-Hughes-Jackson-Oliver group in the same time period…I thought Oliver was the 3rd or 4th best technician of the group as far as coverage instincts. He didn’t have the awareness of Jaire Alexander…I found Oliver to be separated from the receiver more than the other guys, maybe equal to Josh Jackson. Oliver plays with a little too much finesse or lack of awareness on some plays…not terrible…not bust levels, just an item that stood out – but which is also coachable/can be fixed.
Of the Alexander-Hughes-Jackson-Oliver group…if I needed a stop on 3rd & 5 and the ball was coming to the receiver these guys would be covering – Oliver would be my 3rd choice. Not that he’s bad…just that’s where he’d be in my pecking order today. Knowing that is a fixable thing…it takes some of the grading sting out of it.
Oliver has the body of a starting NFL CB…but he feels more like a #2 CB than a #1. There’s #1 potential but I’d bet against it at this stage.
Where does Oliver rate higher than the other CB prospects I keep mentioning? You get the best human. You’re not getting a guy likely to be suspended or embarrass the franchise.
Oliver has a good academic track record and an even better community work record. He’s a very solid guy. You won’t get burned by picking Oliver…we just don’t see a major ceiling with him.
Isaiah Oliver, Through the Lens of Our CB Scouting Algorithm:
Was an all-PAC-12 track & field performer for Colorado. He has set a few records for the school along the way. The athleticism is real.
20 career punt returns…took one back for a score in 2016.
16 passes defended (PDs) in his last 13 D1 games…not a bad number considering he wasn’
t challenged that often in games.
2018 NFL Combine measurables…
6’0.2”/201, 9.75” hands, 33.5” arms
4.50 40-time, 1.60 10-yard, 3.94 shuttle, 6.85 three-cone
35.5” vertical, 10’6” broad jump, DNP bench press
The Historical CB Prospects to Whom Isaiah Oliver Most Compares Within Our System:
If he has a Carlos Rodgers-like career, I wouldn’t be shocked – a 10-year performer, always solid/stable, but just one Pro Bowl. Useful/solid but never a star.
|
CB Grade |
Last |
First |
Draft Yr |
College |
H |
H |
W |
Cover Rating |
Speed Metrics |
Agility Metric |
Tackle Metric |
|
7.303 |
Oliver |
Isaiah |
2018 |
Colorado |
6 |
0.2 |
201 |
9.07 |
3.59 |
7.57 |
6.25 |
|
7.758 |
Rogers |
Carlos |
2005 |
Auburn |
6 |
0.3 |
196 |
8.77 |
3.61 |
14.88 |
6.43 |
|
5.017 |
Williams |
Aaron |
2011 |
Texas |
5 |
11.7 |
204 |
6.41 |
-1.18 |
8.60 |
7.98 |
|
3.565 |
Tabor |
Teez |
2017 |
Florida |
6 |
0.4 |
199 |
5.98 |
-4.46 |
3.80 |
5.64 |
|
2.912 |
Edwards |
SaQwan |
2015 |
New Mexico |
6 |
0.3 |
200 |
5.18 |
-5.09 |
5.87 |
6.53 |
*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0
OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college CBs, with a focus on which CBs went on to be good-great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL CBs had in common in college, that most other CB prospects could not match/achieve.
Scoring with a rating over a 7.00+ in our system is where we start to take a CB prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL successful college CBs scored 8.00+, and most of the NFL superior CBs pushed scores more in the 9.00+ levels...and future NFL busts will sneak in there from time to time. 10.00+ is where most of the elite NFL CBs tend to score in our system analysis.
COVERAGE -- A combination of on-field data/performance and physical profile data
SPEED -- Measurables from a perspective of straight-line speed, burst, etc.
AGILITY -- Measurables for lateral movements, quick cuts, body type, speed, etc.
POWER -- A look at physical size, tackling productivity in college, other physical measurables. One of the side benefits/intentions here, is to see which CBs may be more of a model for a conversion to playing safety successfully in the NFL. Also denotes CBs who are more physical/will have higher tackle totals...over pure speed/coverage CBs.
2018 NFL Draft Outlook:
You can find Oliver projected from picks #20-50 right now, but his stock is steadily climbing. I have a feeling his size, speed, and character get him taken top 32/1st round.
If I were an NFL GM, I’d have an interest in Oliver -- but I wouldn’t see him as a must have. For a top 3-4-5 price, I’d probably take my chances with a 3rd+ round pick CB.
NFL Outlook:
A solid career but never a star. Downside risk he plays with more of a track & field mentality than an NFL one…and gets lost and kicks around as a backup for a while before quietly disappearing from the NFL. But he’s more likely to be solid than a disappointment.
4/13/2018
