NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: WR Mike Williams, Clemson

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

I wouldn't say that Mike Williams is unworthy of being in the NFL. I just don't understand why people value him as a slam dunk first round draft pick or as the number one wide receiver prospect overall.

What is it that is attracting people?

It can't be his college career/output. Williams definitely had a good run at Clemson, but it was not off the charts or outstanding by any stretch. It was good-not-great (in 'top prospect' terms).

It can't be what they saw in pre-draft work out because Williams was a letdown across the board in everything he participated in. At the NFL Combine he had a flimsy 32.5" vertical and an unimpressive 10' 1" broad jump with a mediocre 15 reps on the bench. Worse than that, Williams skipped all of the speed and agility drills at the NFL Combine – and that's a red flag (because he did everything else…he was 'ducking it'). It's a red flag when he then ran slowly (for a top prospect) at his Pro Day -- some say he ran a 4.50, some say 4.57-58...which probably means 4.60 and beyond, possibly. I look at his tape and barely ever see him with separation in 2016, so I believe the 4.60 range. He makes many tough catches over the top of defenders or outmuscling them…but the key point is in most cases he's got a defender pasted on him.

If you have a good-not-great college career + mediocre pre-draft measurables...and then I throw in the fact that he suffered a broken neck in 2015 (forcing him to miss the season) -- then why is anyone even thinking for a second of drafting Williams in the first-round or as the first WR taken? If Williams was 'special' in every category, then you could try to figure out how much to worry about on the neck injury, and how to value it in draft terms. But a bunch of mediocre traits and a broken neck medical red flag...how can analysts value him so highly? (I know the answer…'Clemson')

On the field, Williams is a solid/good receiver. He is a muscular, physical receiver. Displays good hands. He has NFL athleticism, just not 'wow' athleticism. He can work as a nice #2 or #3 WR in the NFL. He's not a #1 WR in the NFL any more than Laquon Treadwell was. Williams is a better version of Treadwell.

I like Williams 'OK'. I just like about 5-8 other receivers more than him from this draft if I were an NFL GM.

Mike Williams, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

If you consider Williams' four toughest games this past season were the ACC title game (vs. Va Tech), and the two playoff games (vs. Ohio State and Alabama), and a regular season game vs. Florida State…Williams averaged 6.5 catches for 79.3 yards and 0.25 TDs per game against that group. Not bad numbers but there's a little tell in there – lots of targets, but of the shorter/quick throw variety and Williams halted after the catch…or up for grabs throws down the sidelines where he's tightly covered trying to wrestle the CB for the ball. He was like a nice possession receiver in those games but not a physical or athletic force. That's Williams' lot in life at the next level – possession WR at best. Not a dynamic #1 receiver.

When you look at Williams' mediocre athleticism numbers it limits him as an inside receiver. He has height but way below average vertical and broad jump…there's not a lot of power in his legs. He's not going over the top of NFL defenders like he did against college players. He can’t outrun them either. He has to play as a limited, inside/possession type; a secondary role type receiver. NFL teams need/desire that – they just should not spend a top 30 or 100 pick on it. Watching the tape…I'm not 100% convinced Williams can survive working the middle in the NFL. It was easy pickings for him in college on that offense…he may wilt in the NFL on it.

Also, note on Williams’ nice 2016 (98 rec., 1,361 yards, 11 TDs)…it's a fine season, but Clemson had the benefit of playing 15 games, so Williams had 2-3 games more than most other receivers.

NFL Combine data…

6'3'6"/218, 33.4" arms, 9.4" hands

4.55-4.60 40-time (Pro Day), skipped agility drills at Combine and Pro Day (red flag)

32.5" vertical, 10'1" broad jump, 15 bench reps

Williams' college stats on CFB Reference: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mike-williams-17.html

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Mike Williams Most Compares Within Our System:

You might be shocked by how low Williams scored in our computer scouting model system. I didn’t think he'd do well, but not 'this low'. However, as I went back through the numbers…there is literally nothing good/great about his prospect resume from performance to athleticism that warrants him as a top prospect. He's not racked with red flags…he just doesn't have any 'green flags' at all.

When you see the comparison names – they're mostly all failed NFL receivers. Some were overhyped at the draft receivers from big name colleges/highly successful college teams at the time. I think Williams being 'good' on a high-profile team has totally warped his draft stock.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2017 NFL Draft Outlook:

Williams started the pre-draft process as the top receiver for the mainstream, and with that came a top 15 draft projection. Since Williams skipped NFL Combine events to hide his issues (my opinion), he started a fire that would burn his lofty draft status down. His flimsy Pro Day has only exacerbated the decline. You can now see Williams as a second-round projection and listed more often as the #2 or #3 WR prospect in the class instead of a hands-down #1. Based on conversations I've had behind the scenes, I think that the decline is real as teams remember getting snowed by Laquon Treadwell in a similar manner. So, in the end, I believe Williams will fall/be taken early second round.

NFL Outlook:   

I see Williams as a contributor in the NFL at some point. He'll ebb and flow depending on the quarterback he works with and the surrounding talent in the receiving corps. In the end, he'll be a non-noteworthy starter in the NFL. Possibly a solid but not spectacular career. Most likely a forgettable career, an easily replaced hand on the roster.

3/21/2017