NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: WR Chris Godwin, Penn State

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Chris Godwin is going to be a very good-to-great NFL wide receiver. He might not lead the league in 'stats', fantasy football points, or highlight reel plays, but when insiders talk about 'pro' wide receivers who do things that the average 'fans' miss…they'll be talking about Godwin.

The reason Godwin can fly under the fans' and mainstream radar is because he's a tough, terrific blocker. It's a lost art among young wide receivers, and it's a skill coveted by most NFL coaches. Watching several of Godwin's games in 2016 – he helped the PSU run game add 10–20% more to runs that hit the second level by Godwin either locking a DB up on a block or coming across blind and taking a pursuing defender right off his feet. Godwin is like a young Quincy Enunwa – a tight end mind with a legit NFL wide receiver body/athleticism.

The blocking aspect is not to ignore his receiving skills, because Godwin has those too. A 6′1″/209 guy who can run a 4.42 40-time with a sweet 1.54 10-yard burst time. Godwin is not the kind of receiver you let loose sprinting down the sidelines only. You use Godwin as a possession, physical wide receiver over the middle making tough catches…the kind most young WRs can't make/don’t want to traverse into the middle after. Two rare skills Godwin possesses, and they are not sexy…but critical in the NFL: (1) great blocker, (2) makes catches in traffic, using his physicality to push off coverage, and takes hits, with good hands to catch miss thrown passes.

All that is not to say Godwin can't use his speed and athleticism to dominate that way either. I think his speed + power combination could make him a great NFL wide receiver…perhaps the best WR in this class when we look back 5–10 years from now. Like Quincy Enunwa, Hines Ward, or Pierre Garcon (the WRs that come to mind when I see Godwin work), they play physical and draw more physical coverage from safeties and linebackers, which allows a guy like Godwin to bait coverage and just burn them with his 4.42 speed. In some sense, Godwin is a freak of a WR prospect because of his power/toughness combined with the speed of high-end wide receivers.

When I watched Godwin's tape against Michigan, Ohio State, and USC, I noticed that Godwin was getting open off the jump against very good college cover guys, but the PSU quarterback did not have a developed skill set where he could read and react to a 'pro' like Godwin. Later in the 2016 season, the PSU QB got more comfortable throwing to Godwin in tight spots and thus Godwin's breakout performance in his USC bowl game – 9 catches for 187 yards and 2 TDs. They weren’t easy catches either. Godwin was fighting and battling for everything.

Of everything I see with Godwin, I think we have a 'sleeper' candidate to be the best all-around wide receiver from this draft. Not the most flashy or exciting…but the best.

By all appearances, Godwin is a solid character prospect – good person, a solid academic record. No history of trouble off the field or any injuries to worry about.

Chris Godwin, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

As Penn State's passing game matured from the first half of 2016 to the second half, you could see Godwin's God-given abilities starting to matter…and produce.

4.2 catches for 60.7 yards and 0.5 TDs per game = First six games for Godwin in 2016

4.9 catches for 88.3 yards and 1.1 TDs per game = Last seven games for Godwin in 2016

Godwin's final seven games of TDs in each game is kinda unique: 2-0-2-0-2-0-2…8 TDs in the last seven games coming from four multi-TD efforts.

Versus Ohio State and Michigan in 2016: 1.5 catches for 23.5 yards and 1.0 TDs per game. Why the low output? Lazy analysts will point this performance out as 'struggled against better coverage', but really watching the games – Godwin is getting open off the jump, but the quarterback isn't even looking. The PSU QB was 24 of 50 (48.0%) for 137.5 yards and 1.0 TDs per game…all the TDs to Godwin…against OSU and Michigan. After that, as the season progressed, the Penn State QB started breaking out with bigger performances.

NFL Combine data…

6′1″/209, 31.6″ arms, 9.1″ hands

4.42 40-time, 1.54 10-yard, 4.00 shuttle, 7.01 three-cone

19 bench reps, 36.0″ vertical, 10′6″ broad jump

Godwin's stats on Fox Sports: http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/chris-godwin-player

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Chris Godwin Most Compares Within Our System:

Pierre Garcon and Quincy Enunwa are the matches I love for Godwin, but I would say that Godwin is not as talented as either of them in their best attributes (Garcon speed/agility, Enunwa blocking/physicality), but as an all-around talent he might be better than any of them.

Garcon was a much more athletic freak of nature for his size than Godwin, but that's not a total slam because Garcon was kind of a one-of-a-kind.

Enunwa was confusing coming into the NFL – off-the-charts tough/blocker but played for an awful passing game at Nebraska. It was hard to interpret his data and tape as a receiver. We looked at him as a #2 type WR and didn’t think he'd be that special, but with the NFL passing games evolving so fast, Enunwa is working like a #2 sometimes #3/tight end-like option. Enunwa is the best blocking WR I've ever seen, so it'd be hard for Godwin to top that, but he tries.

Godwin is a 'weird' hybrid of Garcon and Enunwa, you could say…and a better version because he has ALL the attributes.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2017 NFL Draft Outlook:

Godwin is on the rise for the 2017 NFL Draft from two events: (1) his 4.42 NFL Combine 40-time got him noticed more, and (2) his USC bowl game explosion/dominance…the 4.42 makes the USC event more real. Godwin has moved up as a top 100 prospect since the Combine. I suspect he will go early third round or late second.

NFL Outlook:   

If he goes to an NFL team that tries to make him a #2 WR mostly running routes outside, Godwin will do OK but will be underutilized. If Godwin goes to a team that tries to leverage his power/physicality as a WR who can run as a #2 WR but also be a 'bully' slot/over-the-middle weapon – too physical for CBs and too fast for LBs and safeties. He's a weapon ready to be used as a mismatch if an offensive coordinator has the vision.

3/12/2017