NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: TE Michael Roberts, Toledo

*Our TE grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

**Our TE formulas had some slight changes in the offseason—an adjustment to better identify and value TE prospects that are smaller physically and are primed for the era ahead...the era of Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker-type TEs. Our historical grades will have changed some on various prospects as well, to show their grades by comparison. 

This scouting report might have a lot of Adam Shaheen (TE prospect from D2 Ashland) references in it. For good reason – I do not understand why Shaheen is being ridden to the second round as a sleeper when we have no idea what he'll be like against real competition…but we know he has the NFL 'plus' size (6′6″/278) and above-average athleticism for a tight end.

I probably phrased that wrong.

I get Shaheen catching the draft wave. His size-athleticism package approaches freak-like levels. What I don’t get is why Michael Roberts is drifting towards oblivion at the same time. Both began this process as 5th–7th round intriguing enigmas. Shaheen caught the wave and Roberts is drifting out to sea undetected in the draft right now.

If I had my choice of one or the other, I’d take Roberts – and it would take me less than a second to make that decision. In fact, I wouldn’t rule out that Michael Roberts isn't the best tight end in this 2017 draft class – better than O.J. Howard…better than all of them. Maybe.

I am so impressed every time I see Michael Roberts in action. At the East-West Shrine all-star game, he was a man among boys. So much so that he was a late add to the Senior Bowl. When he got there the analysts did what they always do to jab a TE prospect they don’t know much about it – they say that he needs to work on his blocking. I vividly remember analysts saying that as Roberts entered the one-on-one blocking drills vs. oncoming linebackers during the Senior Bowl practice week and Roberts was pushing them away with ease…to the point Mike Mayock was impressed and said he needed to look at him more. I've watched a bunch of Roberts's tape, and I have no idea why anyone wouldn’t think he wasn't a quality blocker. He's one of the better blockers at TE in this class…on sheer size and build alone.

Blocking is one thing. It's what Roberts does as a receiver that gets me excited. Throw out the TE prospects who are WRs more than TEs (Engram, Everett, and Hodges), and no one is better after the catch than Roberts. In the short passing game, Roberts is probably the best in class as well. Why? When I watch Roberts work, I swear I'm seeing Antonio Gates resurrected. I know Roberts did not test with the athleticism of Gates, but man…Roberts could have fooled me. He's a big horse, a stallion of a tight end. All size and muscle, 'country strong' with a spring in his step like a gifted athlete at his massive size. Some TE prospects like Shaheen or Gerald Everett or George Kittle or Jonnu Smith tested faster – but I don’t see them faster on the field. Most TE prospects with 'surprising speed' in this class are clunky, stiffer in their movements. Roberts is like a Brahma bull. Like a guy that doesn’t know his own strength. Multiple times on tape and the college all-star games, I would see Roberts make a catch a few yards away and then take off running and just swat away defenders like mosquitos. He's a runaway freight train after the catch. The other TE prospects in the class go down much easier. Roberts is sometimes un-tackle-able…and you can't teach that.

Roberts displays pretty good hands. I mean, he did catch 16 TD passes last season. He did measure with an 11.5″ hand size…almost a foot of finger span to make catches with. Like Antonio Gates, Roberts can slide off the line, go five yards downfield over the middle, park himself where the QB can see him, get a short pass and not be bothered with defenders around him. He's so big, like Gates, that defenders are shielded away…and then 'good luck' trying to drag him down after the catch. Gates is going to the Hall of Fame on that basketball boxing-out technique…I think Roberts plays with a similar style.

Roberts is a very nice, humble kid who had a very difficult upbringing but has turned it all around on the football field. He's a guy that not only can be a good player at the next level, but could be a star with the right mentoring. If he keeps using his body like he does in the passing game and as a blocker, he'll be a terrific, reliable three-down tight end…for a bargain price in the draft.

Michael Roberts, Through the Lens of Our TE Scouting Algorithm:

#1 among all D1 tight ends with 16 TDs, #6 among all players at the D1 level.

26 games as a main player for Toledo over three seasons and Roberts has caught 22 TDs in that span.

Roberts faced six teams with a winning record in 2016, and averaged 3.8 catches for 40.0 yards and 1.2 TDs per game in those games.

Why the lower catches/yards per game in those games against tougher opponents? They are not bad totals for a college TE because most college QBs are not capable of using a tight end that works like an Antonio Gates. It's easy to throw to Evan Engram and Bucky Hodges lined up as flankers every down. Roberts stays in to block like a typical NFL tight end…and isn't going out for passes every down like some of the other tight ends. However, around the goal line, he's a special weapon to be utilized.

NFL Combine data…

6′4.3″/270, 11.5″ hands, 33.3″ arms

4.86 40-time, 4.51 shuttle, 7.05 three-cone

21 bench reps (Pro Day), 30.0″ vertical, 9′2″ broad jump

Consider Roberts is playing at 270 pounds…what if he drops 7–10 pounds but holds his muscle? That 40-time gets more to 4.80, maybe, and possibly under 7.00 three-cone? I'm just saying…

Roberts's college stats on Fox Sports: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/michael-roberts-3.html

The Historical TE Prospects to Whom Michael Roberts Most Compares Within Our System:

We tweaked some of our tight end formulas to better identify and grade traditional tight ends like Vance McDonald and C.J. Fiedorowicz. Tight ends we liked in years past but our grades didn’t always reflect it…the dichotomy bugged me. So, we made some changes and a couple success prospects saw their grades rise…guys like McDonald and Fiedorowicz – and Roberts tracks with them as a similar prospect.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a TE prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of TEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL TE.

All of the TE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

**The ‘TE-Reed’ score is in honor of Jordan Reed’s 2015 season…looking at TEs in a different manner—the smaller, speedy receiving threats.

“Speed-Agility Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Power-Strength Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Hands Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and project the combination of data for receiving success at the next level.

2017 NFL Draft Outlook:

All I see are sixth- and seventh-round projections on Roberts. I don’t get it. I'll bet Roberts goes in the fifth round, maybe even the late fourth round.

NFL Outlook:   

He may need a year or two to get acclimated/trained, but I believe in time Roberts can be a workhorse, three-down starter at tight end in the NFL.

3/8/2017