NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: TE David Njoku, Miami, Florida

*Our TE grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

**Our TE formulas had some slight changes in the offseason—an adjustment to better identify and value TE prospects that are smaller physically and are primed for the era ahead...the era of Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker-type TEs. Our historical grades will have changed some on various prospects as well, to show their grades by comparison. 

I'm struggling with this evaluation. In the snippets I saw of David Njoku in January, I saw too much Eric Ebron…and Eric Ebron represents all that's wrong in NFL scouting to me. A guy pushed to the #10 pick overall in the draft because of horrible scouting by EVERYONE in the NFL…and the Lions fell for it as they passed up on two potential Hall of Famers in Odell Beckham and Aaron Donald, both taken right after Ebron. It's sickening when I think about it.

Anyone who was paying attention should have discerned two things about Ebron back in 2014 – he was not nearly as athletic as everyone was portraying. I mean, a child could have looked at the NFL Combine numbers and saw that Ebron was not first-round material. Then when you watched the tape you could see his struggles catching the ball. His college output numbers were weak (for his status). He had trouble at the Combine and at his Pro Day catching the ball. It was all excused because analysts had already stamped him 'the next Jimmy Graham'. Nothing about Ebron was like Graham at all. Ebron went to the NFL and immediately became a disappointment and struggled with 'drops'. He's not awful; he's just not worthy of his #10 overall pick in 2014.

I have to say, I see DNA strands of Eric Ebron in David Njoku, and I cannot shake them. Njoku moves and catches a lot like Ebron to my eye, and I'm not the only one saying it. Except I mean it as a criticism. They both move a little gangly, awkwardly…like they haven't grown into their huge bodies. They double-catch passes and flat-out drop/hack up passes too many times to be considered elite NFL prospects. When you watch O.J. Howard's tape, and then Njoku's…you can see a massive difference in athleticism and polish. However, that may be unfair to Njoku as Howard is an all-time great prospect at tight end.

I spent February and into the NFL Combine very negative on Njoku, drawing parallels to Ebron. So, when I went into a deeper tape watch after his Combine results, I expected to see more things to back up my initial negative claims. However, when I started watching more tape, I didn’t see Njoku as bad as I saw Ebron. The tape I saw early on was not a bright spot for Njoku…but now, after watching more tape, I know the first bad impression was more of an outlier. Njoku is not as bad as Ebron catching the ball. Njoku is not totally smooth or as fluid catching as you’d like, but he's capable/OK. The more games I watched, the more I saw Njoku catching bubble screens in some traffic just fine, making catches cutting across the field middle and deep, and coming down with jump ball throws in the end zone. I did not see as much 'drops' or double-catching of passes as I first interpreted…and nothing as bad as Ebron's college work.

In addition, Njoku tested superior to Ebron, comparing their NFL Combines. Take a look at their Combine data (three-cone for Ebron was at his Pro Day)…

4.60 40-time, 1.63 10-yards, 24 bench reps, 32.0″ vertical, 7.49 three-cone = Ebron (2014)

4.64 40-time,  n/a 10-yards, 21 bench reps, 37.5″ vertical, 6.97 three-cone = Njoku (2014)

They're both straight-line fast, and then everything changes in favor of Njoku…the world class high jumper from high school/college. Njoku has agility times like a great TE prospect…and Ebron more of the stiff/bust variety, and that's how it has played out so far in the NFL. So, if you theorize that Ebron is a nice size/speed tight end but not incredibly athletic and without good hands…and he's still plausible working in the NFL – then if Njoku has better hands and is high-end athletic for a tight end…how much more should teams love Njoku? I think David Njoku is more like the Eric Ebron that NFL teams were hoping for.

I wouldn’t say Njoku is 'the next Jimmy Graham', but he does bring interesting things to the table – above-average TE speed with excellent TE agility. He also has terrific leaping ability to make him more of a danger in the passing game, especially in the red zone. If you compare Njoku to O.J. Howard or Graham, you're going to be disappointed. If you compare Njoku to Ebron, you’re going to be satisfied that you got a better version with Njoku.

I was initially crass/flippant about Njoku's NFL translation, but the more I've watched him, the more I have changed my thinking. I more like him now than not, but still have that nagging hesitation on his hands. In 2015 or 2016, we all would have jumped at Njoku as a top tight end prospect and hoped the hands weren't as bad as we feared. In 2017, there are many tight end options…so I wouldn’t reach for Njoku, but I no longer dismiss him as I had. He catches well enough and brings a good size-athleticism combo to the table for the NFL. He's a solid 'B' who maybe is an 'A-' in the right spot.

Off the field, Njoku appears to be a very nice, focused young man. There are no injuries, suspensions, or issues that teams should be worried about. He seems to be a polite, soft-spoken, hardworking kid/man.

David Njoku, Through the Lens of Our TE Scouting Algorithm:

In 2015, Njoku averaged 2.1 catches for 36.2 yards per game and scored just 1 TD. He became more of a breakout star for the Hurricanes in 2016 with 8 TDs and 3.6 catches for 58.2 yards per game. He's improved by leaps and bounds from 2014 to 2016 at Miami, Florida.

There is a nice progression here. I'm going to take Njoku's two seasons and split them into four equal halves of each season – 10 games in 2015 (5/5 game split), 12 games in 2016 (6/6 game split)

2.0 catches, 35.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = 1st half of his 2015 season

2.2 catches, 30.0 yards, 0.2 TDs per game = 2nd half of his 2015 season

2.8 catches, 50.1 yards, 0.2 TDs per game = 1st half of his 2016 season

4.3 catches, 65.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game = 2nd half of his 2016 season

When I say that Njoku might be developing quickly and has an upside from here, I must also note this – he's only 20 years old as of this writing. He was the youngest player at the 2017 NFL Combine.

NFL Combine data…

6′4.0″/246, 35.25″ arms, 10.0″ hands

4.64 40-time, 6.97 three cone, 4.34 shuttle, 11′1″ broad jump, 37.5″ vertical, 21 bench reps

Njoku's college stats:  http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/david-njoku-player

The Historical TE Prospects to Whom David Njoku Most Compares Within Our System:

Visanthe Shiancoe was a very above-average/high-end athlete as a TE prospect in 2003. He had a long, decent NFL career, but was never considered a star of any kind. He also battled some issues with 'hands' and 'drops'.

I'm not sure I love any comparison for Njoku besides saying that he's a better version of Eric Ebron…the Eric Ebron that people thought they were getting in 2014.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a TE prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of TEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL TE.

All of the TE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

**The ‘TE-Reed’ score is in honor of Jordan Reed’s 2015 season…looking at TEs in a different manner—the smaller, speedy receiving threats.

“Speed-Agility Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Power-Strength Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Hands Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and project the combination of data for receiving success at the next level.

2017 NFL Draft Outlook:

Most everyone has Njoku as a first-round pick projection, with about a 50-50 draw on people pushing Njoku over O.J. Howard as the top tight end prospect overall for 2017. I'm warmed up to/OK with Njoku, but calling him better than O.J. Howard is a pipe dream. You can make the argument that Njoku is younger, and thus has more miles to go, but NFL teams aren't playing for 10 years from now when drafting today. In the end, Njoku has enough draft momentum to begin with and now legit NFL Combine numbers to make him a first-round pick. He's going first round for sure.

NFL Outlook:   

My instincts tell me Njoku will have a career a bit like Eric Ebron's – everyone all worked up about them entering the NFL, and then are yawning about him 3–4 years later. Not mocking him…just not excited or thinking they have a 'franchise' tight end – just a good tight end. I see the potential for an upside on Njoku better than I am projecting, but something tells me he's more 'B' than 'A' in a draft with a lot of A–B tight ends available. He might be good early on, and then a dinosaur in 3–4 years with the wave of talented tight ends hitting the NFL.

3/16/2017