*Our LB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
Jarrad Davis 'the human' is awesome.
Jarrad Davis 'the football player' is very average and has concerning red flags…and should not have his name breathed as a first-round or top 50 player, but I bet he goes top 50 overall.
There are three concerning red flags with Davis, and I'm listing them from least to most concerning…
1) There's nothing special about Davis as an athlete, based on his Pro Day numbers…and his measurables back up what you see on tape – a good straight-line runner, but a stiff east-west runner. Davis doesn’t have first-round measurables/athleticism on paper…or on tape.
2) His tackle numbers are a joke, thinking of him in terms of a top inside linebacker. In his last 20 games, if you take out his outlier game against Vandy (2016) with 14 tackles, Davis averaged a very mediocre 6.1 tackles per game in his last 19 games (20 less Vandy). He's gotta do better to be a top 25–50 prospect. His big tackle games (10 or more tackles) in his career are against non-powerhouse teams – Vanderbilt (15), East Carolina (12), Florida Atlantic (10), and Kentucky (10).
Davis had 29 solo tackles in 2016, in nine games (3.2 per game). That's not good for an inside linebacker that's a supposed first-round talent.
3) If you think that maybe style, scheme, or circumstance had to do with his low tackle numbers (relatively speaking) – I challenge you to go watch his Alabama 2016 tape. Countless missed tackles and Davis blocked far from the play way too many times, and way too easily.
I'm not saying that there is no place for Davis in the NFL. I think he's a guy you want on your team and in your locker room, and you hope he develops into a quality/useful inside backer. However, you shouldn’t pay a top 50 price to find out. There are half a dozen+ linebackers better than or equal to Davis in the draft, talentwise. There are 3-4-5+ ILB prospects who weren’t invited to the NFL Combine who are as/more talented.
Davis is an Academic All-American and all All-SEC Community Service Team member. He's a great dude. He's not a great linebacker prospect. He is NFL-worthy. He might be good/acceptable as a rotational ILB for suspected running plays. He's a nice backup to have. He's not a franchise ILB talent. He has upside to good against the run and a downside of backup/special teams for years.
Jarrad Davis, Through the Lens of Our ILB Scouting Algorithm:
In two SEC title games (Alabama 2x) and a bowl game (Michigan) over the past two seasons, three high-profile games – Davis has averaged a meager 5.3 total tackles and 0.2 TFLs per game.
In those three games just mentioned + facing LSU, Florida State, Georgia (2x), and Arkansas (his eight tougher opponent games) in the past two seasons, Davis averaged 5.9 total tackles and 0.50 TFLs per game. Solid-ish numbers, but not 'wow'.
Davis never registered on any 'top 10 tackles' or any individual defensive stat list for a season in the SEC in his career.
NFL Combine and Pro Day data…
6′1″/238, 9.8 hands, 33.5″ arms
4.62 40-time, 1.57 10-yard, 4.29 shuttle, 7.39 three-cone (all pro Day results)
23 bench reps, 38.5″ vertical, 10′9″ broad jump
Davis’s stats on CFB Reference: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jarrad-davis-1.html
Best season of total tackles per game among top ILB prospects…
9.6 = Zach Cunningham, Vandy (2016)
9.2 = Anthony Walker, Northwestern (2015)
9.2 = Raekwon McMillan, Ohio State (2016)
9.1 = Blair Brown, Ohio (2016)
8.1 = Marquel Lee, Wake Forest (2016)
7.7 = Reuben Foster, Alabama (2016)
7.2 = Ben Gedeon, Michigan (2016)
6.7 = Jarrad Davis, Florida (2015)
In his last 10 games, Jarrad Davis made between 0 and 2 solo tackles in a game six times (60% of games in that stretch). Zach Cunningham had 0–2 solo tackles in a game one time in his final 20 college games.
The Historical ILB Prospects to Whom Jarrad Davis Most Compares Within Our System:
|
ILB Score |
Last |
First |
Yr |
College |
H |
H |
W |
Tackle, Strngth Metric |
Speed, Agility Metric |
|
5.678 |
Davis |
Jarrad |
2017 |
Florida |
6 |
1.0 |
238 |
6.56 |
5.85 |
|
4.524 |
Henson |
Robert |
2009 |
TCU |
6 |
0.1 |
240 |
6.36 |
4.91 |
|
4.929 |
Mosley |
C.J |
2014 |
Alabama |
6 |
2.0 |
234 |
6.65 |
4.86 |
|
3.002 |
Thomas |
Trey |
2016 |
E. Kentucky |
5 |
10.7 |
222 |
4.89 |
4.16 |
|
2.431 |
McKinney |
Benardrick |
2015 |
Miss State |
6 |
4.1 |
246 |
5.26 |
5.59 |
*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of LBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite LB.
All of the LB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.
Tackle-Strength Metrics = A combination of several physical and performance measurements. An attempt to classify the LB prospect's ability to stop the run, as well as to gauge how physical the player is, and the likelihood of higher tackle counts in the NFL. All based on profiles of LBs historically.
Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, and size measurements...as well as game performance data to profile a LB for speed/agility based on LBs historically. A unique measuring system to look for LBs that profile for quickness, pass-coverage ability, and general ability to cover more ground.
2017 NFL Draft Outlook:
Tough call. Many first-round projections, but plenty of second-round projections as well. I think teams will love his off-field character and take him between picks 25 and 50. I have a feeling he’s more likely to be taken in the second round because of the ILB economics.
NFL Outlook:
I can't see him going beyond a backup or low-end starter in the NFL. Maybe a rotational starter in run-stopping situations.
4/24/2017
